Xml [Table_Page] 固定收益|周度报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 周策略图谱 债市抢跑两会行情？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [分析师： Table_Author]杜渐 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260526020003 | | 010-59136690 | | dujian@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 吴棋滢 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | SFC CE No. BQN213 | | 021-38003588 | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杜渐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/31 972918116公共联系人2026-03-01 18:30:00 [Table_Contacts] ⚫ 合意区间约束与技术形态指向震荡格局依然是当前市场的主要背景。 央行近期两次提及利率区间，或暗示合意区间大致在 1 ...

广州银行此次增资扩股的背景，与其资本充足率的下滑密切相关。截至2025年9月末，该行资产总额已 达9121亿元（未经审计），但核心一级资本充足率却降至7.73%，较2021—2024年的9.1%以上水平明显 下滑。 资本充足率的下降，一方面源于资产规模的扩张，另一方面也反映出该行在业务增长过程中对 资本补充的迫切需求。 事实上，广州银行并非首次通过增资扩股补充资本。公开信息显示，该行自成立以来已完成七轮增资扩 股（含配股），其中2018年曾进行百亿级增资，引入南方电网等6家机构投资者，并优化股权结构。此 次增资扩股将是该行2009年更名后的第二次大规模资本补充行动，市场关注其能否借此缓解资本压力， 并为后续发展提供支撑。 撤回A股IPO，战略调整影响资本补充路径 值得注意的是，广州银行此次增资扩股计划，是在其撤回A股上市申请后提出的。2025年1月，该行宣 布撤回IPO申请，深交所随即终止审核。尽管该行曾表示撤回申请系"战略调整"，但市场普遍认为，这 一决定可能与其资本补充压力增大有关。 广州银行的上市之路可谓一波三折。早在2009年更名之初，该行就曾提出"三年内完成上市"的目标，但 直至2016年仍未取得实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary financial data for Huaxia Bank for the year 2025 indicates a decline in profit, while showing growth in total assets and deposits, reflecting a focus on high-quality development despite challenges in profitability [1][3]. Financial Data and Indicators - Total profit for 2025 was CNY 34.174 billion, a decrease of 4.75% compared to the previous year [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 27.200 billion, down 1.72% year-on-year [3]. - Total assets reached CNY 4,737.619 billion, an increase of 8.25% from the end of the previous year [3]. - Total loans amounted to CNY 2,566.666 billion, growing by 8.47% [3]. - Total liabilities were CNY 4,337.819 billion, up 8.15% [3]. - Total deposits increased to CNY 2,381.699 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.71% [3]. Operational Performance and Financial Condition - The bank maintained a non-performing loan ratio of 1.55%, which is a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the end of the previous year [3]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 143.30%, down 18.59 percentage points compared to the previous year-end [3]. - The bank's strategic focus on high-quality development has led to positive outcomes despite the decline in profits [3].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a shift in its bond issuance strategy, moving from a defensive approach to a proactive one focused on long-term business expansion and asset allocation optimization as it prepares for the full implementation of the "Solvency II" phase two regulations in 2026 [3][5][19]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - In early 2023, three insurance companies, including China CITIC Bank Insurance, China British Life Insurance, and Great Wall Life Insurance, issued a total of 7 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds and perpetual bonds, with coupon rates as low as 2.35% to 2.54% [3][4][15]. - The bond issuance scale for the insurance industry is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan annually from 2023 to 2025, with over 500 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds maturing in 2026 [3][5][19]. - The trend of "redeeming old bonds and issuing new ones" is anticipated to dominate the bond issuance strategy in 2026, particularly as coupon rates continue to decline [8][20]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The transition to the "Solvency II" phase two regulations has prompted insurance companies to actively supplement their capital through various means, including bond issuance, to address the downward pressure on solvency [5][19]. - The end of the transitional period for the "Solvency II" phase two regulations has led to stricter capital constraints, shifting the motivation for bond issuance from merely filling solvency gaps to optimizing capital structure and supporting more efficient business layouts [19][23]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategy - China CITIC Bank Insurance reported a comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 209% and a core solvency adequacy ratio of 123.5% as of the end of Q4 2025, indicating a decline of 6.3 percentage points due to plans to redeem 4 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds in 2026 [4][16]. - China British Life Insurance and Great Wall Life Insurance also reported strong solvency ratios, with core solvency adequacy ratios of 192.95% and 117.52%, respectively, as of the end of 2025 [4][16]. - Great Wall Life Insurance aims to stabilize its solvency, optimize its capital structure, and reduce overall financing costs through its bond issuance strategy, which is aligned with its long-term strategic goals [18][23]. Group 4: Market Conditions - The current low interest rate environment, coupled with ample liquidity and a lack of investment opportunities, has driven down bond coupon rates, making it an opportune time for high-quality insurance companies to refinance and optimize their debt structures [8][20][23]. - The issuance of perpetual bonds has become more common among insurance companies, providing them with flexible financing options that do not impose strict repayment obligations [12][23].

Group 1 - Ping An Bank plans to redeem 200 million preferred shares on March 9, 2026, with a total scale of 20 billion yuan [1] - The bank's capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio as of September 2025 are 13.48%, 11.06%, and 9.52%, respectively, all exceeding regulatory requirements [1] - The redemption of preferred shares is part of a broader trend among listed banks, driven by changes in interest rate environments and capital tool management [2] Group 2 - The redemption of preferred shares is seen as a financial optimization strategy to lower financing costs by replacing higher dividend rate preferred shares with lower-cost perpetual bonds [2][4] - The preferred share market may enter a contraction phase, leading to reduced market size and liquidity, which could affect investors' access to high-quality, high-yield assets [3] - Institutional funds are expected to shift towards perpetual bonds and other alternative capital instruments due to the shrinking supply of preferred shares [4]

观点指数(GDIRI) 自京投发展2024年度的定增事项在2025年末正式宣告终止后，今年开年，其抛出两笔合计30亿元的融资计划，显示了对于补充资金、缓解 债务压力的迫切需求。 1月30日，京投发展股份有限公司密集发布两则融资公告，分别拟非公开发行不超过20亿元公司债券及注册发行不超过10亿元非金融企业债务融资工具，且 均由其控股股东北京市基础设施投资有限公司（以下简称"京投公司"）提供全额无条件不可撤销连带责任保证担保。 结合近一年来京投发展频频落地的融资动作、持续提升的资产负债率及低迷的经营表现来看，此次30亿债券融资既是对定增终止的及时补位，也是其应对债 务压力、优化资产结构的举动。 定增终止与补位 近一年来，面对持续紧绷的资金压力，京投发展的融资动作始终保持高频态势，融资渠道不断拓宽，涵盖债券、永续债、股东借款等多种形式。据Wind数 据显示，截至目前，京投发展合计存续6笔债券，总金额为53.25亿元，其中4笔均在2025年发行。 2025年2月，京投发展非公开发行债券获得上海证券交易所出具的无异议函，该批次债券发行规模不超过13.25亿元，为其后续资金补充奠定了基础；3月， 该批次债券第一期成功发行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in Guangdong is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions among small and medium-sized banks to enhance financial stability and service capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions - Shunde Rural Commercial Bank has been approved to acquire Shenzhen Longhua Xinhua Village Bank, while Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank will absorb Shenzhen Pingshan Zhujiang Village Bank, extending their service networks into Shenzhen [1]. - Since 2024, over 10 village banks in Guangdong have completed mergers and entered dissolution procedures, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the banking sector [1][3]. - The integration of village banks is seen as a key strategy for reforming small and medium-sized banks, with Guangdong's pace of integration aligning with national trends and accelerating since 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Health and Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy is crucial for banks to withstand risks and achieve sustainable development, with Guangdong's small and medium-sized banks enhancing their capital base through various channels, including issuing special bonds [4][5]. - Guangdong has issued a total of 200 billion yuan in special bonds to support small and medium-sized banks, with the latest issuance in July 2023 aimed at bolstering South Guangdong Bank's capital [5]. - As of June 2025, the average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for five city commercial banks in Guangdong was 9.81%, while rural commercial banks averaged 17.4%, both exceeding regulatory requirements [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Directions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for small financial institutions to reduce risks and improve quality, with ongoing regulatory support for the restructuring of high-risk institutions [7]. - Experts suggest that the focus on "reducing" high-risk institutions through market-driven mergers and "improving" governance and service capabilities is essential for the sector's development [7]. - Moving forward, small and medium-sized banks in Guangdong are encouraged to leverage regional economic characteristics and innovate in areas like inclusive finance and supply chain finance to avoid homogenized competition [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary perpetual bond market shows a distinct feature of "long - end leading the rise", with long - end yields falling significantly more than short - end yields. The long - term spread of secondary perpetual bonds has been repaired, forming a steep term spread compression pattern. Insurance institutions increase their allocation of 7 - 10 - year bonds, and funds increase their allocation of 3 - 5 - year bonds. [2][12] - After the structural differentiation market, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end is not smooth, and the downward momentum of the long - end is limited. The trading difficulty of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds remains relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for opportunities in the adjustment of relatively long - term varieties. [4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. Market Review: Insurance Institutions Increase Allocation, and Long - Term Secondary Perpetual Bonds of Large Banks Have an Independent Market - **Yield Performance**: In the third week of January, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds decreased, with long - end varieties performing particularly prominently. The 7 - year and 10 - year yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 9.61bp and 8.84bp respectively, while the 1 - year yield only decreased by about 1bp. Perpetual bonds showed a similar pattern. In contrast, the long - end yields of other credit bonds such as medium - and short - term notes and commercial financial bonds decreased more moderately. [12] - **Spread Compression**: The credit spread quantiles of secondary perpetual bonds generally showed a compression trend, and the long - term spread repair of secondary perpetual bonds was the most prominent. The 10 - year and 7 - year spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds decreased by 20.70 and 15.61 percentage points respectively. The 7Y - 5Y term spread quantile decreased significantly, indicating a greater decline in the 7 - year yield and an obvious increase in the preference of allocation funds for this term variety. [16] - **Institutional Allocation**: Insurance institutions increased their allocation of 7 - 10 - year and 20 - 30 - year bonds, with net purchases of 12.44 billion yuan and 42.66 billion yuan respectively. Fund institutions' net purchases were mainly concentrated in the medium - and long - end, with a large - scale net purchase of 243.13 billion yuan in the 3 - 5 - year period. Other institutions had different allocation and reduction behaviors. [17] - **Transaction of Individual Bonds**: The trading of 7 - year secondary capital bonds was concentrated in state - owned banks, with Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank accounting for more than 90%. The representative bonds of the two banks had significant trading volumes and their yields decreased. [19] 3.2 2. Outlook: Limited Transmission from the Long - End to the Short - End, and Relatively Large Trading Difficulty - **Analysis of Historical Market Conditions**: Five periods of similar duration differentiation market conditions since 2022 were selected. In these periods, long - term bonds generally had a greater decline in yields than short - term bonds. After that, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end was not smooth, and the long - end's downward momentum was limited. [23] - **Market Outlook**: The differentiation of spread quantiles is usually a leading signal for market differentiation. When secondary capital bond yields show a structural differentiation where long - term varieties decline more than short - term ones, there is no smooth transmission from long - to medium - and short - term bonds. Short - end yields are at relatively low historical quantiles, with limited downward space and low allocation cost - effectiveness. In a non - bull market environment, it is difficult for secondary perpetual bonds to achieve a rotation between long and short market conditions after term spread compression, and the subsequent trend of long - term secondary perpetual bonds is more likely to be volatile. [29][30] - **Trading Suggestions**: Since the end of 2025, the short - end yield and credit spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds have decreased significantly, while the long - term yield quantiles have remained around 50% and the credit spread quantiles around 80%. Although there is no obvious supply pressure for long - term secondary perpetual bonds and moderately lengthening the duration has certain feasibility, the trading difficulty is still relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for adjustment opportunities in relatively long - term varieties. [32][33]

Group 1: Portfolio Strategy Performance Tracking - The simulated portfolio yields have generally shown marginal decline this week, with the secondary ultra-long and urban investment ultra-long strategies leading in the interest rate style portfolio, yielding 0.2% and 0.18% respectively. In the credit style portfolio, the secondary ultra-long and urban investment ultra-long strategies achieved yields of 0.36% and 0.26% respectively [2][14][15] - The average yield of the credit style time deposit heavy portfolio decreased by 5.2 basis points to 0.11%, indicating a lack of aggressive attributes in recent weeks. The urban investment heavy portfolio's average yield fell by 3.9 basis points to 0.17%, with the duration strategy being the only one showing continuous improvement, achieving an absolute yield of 0.23% [2][18] - The average yield of the secondary capital bond heavy portfolio decreased by 14.3 basis points to 0.18%, benefiting from the rise in ultra-long bond components. The mixed-dumbbell strategy remains superior to other portfolios, while the secondary bond duration strategy slightly outperformed the corresponding interest rate style portfolio but underperformed compared to the similar duration urban investment heavy portfolio [2][18] Group 2: Sources of Returns - Most ultra-long bond heavy strategies derive over 80% of their returns from capital gains. The simulated portfolio's coupon rates have begun to decline, with the credit style secondary bond and secondary ultra-long strategies experiencing a weekly coupon rate drop of over 0.1%. The annualized returns of the urban investment and secondary ultra-long strategies are still 35.9 basis points and 44.7 basis points away from their lowest points since 2025 [3][27] - The contribution of portfolio coupons is concentrated between 15% to 40%, while over 85% of the returns from the secondary ultra-long strategy come from capital gains, effectively amplifying the yield spread [3][27] Group 3: Credit Strategy Excess Returns Tracking - Over the past four weeks, the secondary perpetual bond duration strategy has significantly outperformed, with cumulative excess returns exceeding the benchmark for most strategies. The cumulative excess returns for the secondary bond duration, perpetual bond duration, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reached 22.7 basis points, 18 basis points, and 16.4 basis points respectively [4][32] - In terms of strategy duration, the excess returns of medium to long-term strategies have been narrowing for two consecutive weeks. In the short term, the time deposit strategy and urban investment sinking strategy outperformed the benchmark, with excess returns widening. However, the medium to long-term strategies' excess returns have gradually shrunk, with most strategies underperforming the benchmark by less than 3 basis points [4][35] - For the ultra-long end, the urban investment, industry, and secondary ultra-long combinations achieved excess returns of 8.9 basis points, 8.6 basis points, and 19.6 basis points respectively, indicating a divergence in performance between non-financial credit and secondary bond heavy portfolios [4][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]