日本央行内部对货币政策沟通策略出现分歧，部分理事呼吁放弃模糊的"潜在通胀"指标，转向更加鹰派 的政策表态。这一变化可能为今年10月的加息行动扫清道路。 8月13日周三，据媒体报道，日本央行内部出现了越来越多的声音，要求放弃"潜在通胀"这一模糊的衡 量指标。 所谓"潜在通胀"，主要反映国内需求和工资的增长情况，被央行视作加息节奏的参考。日本央行行长植 田和男一直以 "潜在通胀" 低于央行2%的目标为由，主张缓步加息。然而，这个概念并没有统一、明确 的统计方式，这让外界批评日本央行过度依赖一个模糊指标来制定政策，尤其是在通胀已连续三年多高 于2%目标的背景下。 数据显示，日本年度核心消费价格指数6月份达到3.3%，连续三年多超过央行2%的目标，主要由食品成 本8.2%的飙升推动。这种价格压力促使日本央行在上月上调了核心通胀预期，也让市场对央行所谓"潜 在通胀"尚未达到2%的判断产生质疑。 通胀压力持续升温，理事会内部分歧显现 如今，日本央行内部一些政策委员担心 "二轮通胀效应" 正在形成，即通胀效应可能会在企业定价行为 和公众对未来通胀的预期中固化下来。他们呼吁将政策沟通重点转向更直观的总体通胀。 根据日本央行7 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding its monetary policy communication strategy, with some members advocating for a shift away from the ambiguous "potential inflation" metric towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] - The concept of "potential inflation" has been criticized for its lack of a unified statistical method, especially as the core consumer price index has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, reaching 3.3% in June, driven by an 8.2% surge in food costs [1][2] - Some BOJ policymakers are concerned about the formation of a "second-round inflation effect," where inflation expectations become entrenched in corporate pricing behavior and public sentiment, prompting calls for a focus on actual price trends and inflation expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The BOJ ended a decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, but the timing for the next rate hike has become complex due to external economic pressures [3] - Recent trade agreements with the U.S. have improved the BOJ's economic outlook, leading some members to call for adjustments to the dovish communication style, indicating a heightened awareness of inflationary pressures [3] - Observers suggest that the BOJ may phase out the "potential inflation" concept in its communications as it prepares for a possible rate hike as early as October [3]