云服务行业估值重塑
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光大证券:予金山云“买入”评级 云服务有望迎来估值重塑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-27 01:52
1)海外方面,亚马逊AWS近日将AI算力服务产品(核心面向大模型训练的EC2机器学习容量块)价格上调 约15%,其中p5e.48xlarge实例每小时费用由34.61美元涨至39.80美元,打破"价格只降不涨"的长期惯 例。 2)国内方面,阿里云高管指出,未来1年全球AI Token量可能增长100倍以上,硬件(如内存)成本面临上 涨压力。该行认为,随着AWS打破惯例率先提价,国内云厂商有望跟随放缓降价,云服务行业盈利中 枢将确定性上移,叠加AI资本开支高景气,板块估值有望系统性重估。 金山云:生态持续赋能,AI业务进入收获期 光大证券主要观点如下: 金山云4Q25业绩前瞻 该行预计金山云4Q25营收27亿元,同比增长22%/环比增长10%,主要受益于AI驱动公有云业务增长+行 业云Q4传统旺季,预计单季AI收入同比增长85%至8.8亿元,综合毛利率维持15%左右,调整EBITDA利 润率22%水平,盈利能力持续稳健。 云服务有望迎来估值重塑:成本压力与AI旺盛需求正向传导,行业性提价周期开启在即 光大证券发布研报称,全球AI算力需求强劲正重塑云服务行业逻辑。随着AWS打破惯例率先提价,行 业恶性价格竞争有望 ...
金山云(03896):4Q25业绩前瞻:云服务行业有望迎来估值重塑,预计4Q25及2026年AI业务延续高增
EBSCN· 2026-01-26 15:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Cloud (3896.HK) [6] Core Views - The cloud service industry is expected to undergo a valuation reshaping, driven by strong AI demand and cost pressures, leading to an imminent price increase across the sector [2] - Kingsoft Cloud is positioned to benefit from its unique ecosystem, particularly through its strategic partnership with Xiaomi, which enhances its AI capabilities and revenue potential [3] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 27 billion CNY in Q4 2025, representing a 22% year-on-year growth and a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, primarily fueled by AI-driven public cloud business growth [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Kingsoft Cloud have been revised upwards for 2026 and 2027 to 121 billion CNY and 140 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an increase of 9% and 11% [4] - The expected revenue growth rates are 22.3% for 2025 and 26.6% for 2026, with a projected revenue of 9.522 billion CNY in 2025 and 12.060 billion CNY in 2026 [5] - The adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to be around 22% in Q4 2025, indicating sustained profitability [1] AI Business Growth - Kingsoft Cloud's AI business is entering a harvest phase, with expected revenue growth of 85% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 8.8 billion CNY [3] - The company has established a comprehensive AI training and deployment platform, enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency [3] - The AI revenue is projected to maintain high double-digit growth into 2026, supported by ongoing demand from various sectors [3]