Group 1: Overview of Tariff Increases - The U.S. has announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, imposing a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with additional tariffs based on the estimated tariffs of trade partners [1][19] - The overall tariff rate is expected to increase by approximately 18.2%, with a potential increase of about 13.9% when excluding products covered by Section 232 [3][21] - The highest tariff rates are imposed on Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), and Iraq (39%), with China facing a 34% tariff [3][21] Group 2: Potential for Further Tariff Increases - There is an estimated additional tariff increase potential of 16.7% based on the U.S. Trade Representative's calculations, although the space for further increases on China may be limited due to already high effective rates [4][25] Group 3: Impact on Inflation - The short-term inflation impact in the U.S. is estimated to rise by approximately 0.7% to 1.6% due to the new tariffs, with a median estimate of 1.2% [5][31] - In China, the tariffs could lead to a decrease in export growth by 3.5% to 11%, potentially dragging down the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 0.7% to 2.2% [6][35] Group 4: Fiscal Revenue from Tariffs - The tariffs are projected to generate between $349.9 billion to $503.5 billion annually, accumulating to approximately $3.5 trillion to $5 trillion over the next decade [7][37] Group 5: GDP Impact - The tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% to 1.5%, with financial shocks potentially increasing this impact [8][40] - For the Eurozone, the GDP impact from the tariffs is estimated to be between -0.06% and -1%, with a median impact of around 0.5% [9][41] Group 6: Effects on Chinese Exports and GDP - Cumulatively, tariffs on China have reached 54%, with the latest increase of 34% expected to negatively impact Chinese exports by 3.5% to 11% [10][44] - The overall impact on China's GDP is estimated to be between -0.25% and -0.9% due to the tariffs [13][46] Group 7: Structural Impact on Export Products - Following the tariff increases, the proportion of Chinese exports that maintain a comparative advantage is expected to drop to 25.4% [14] - Specific product categories, such as non-knitted clothing and certain metals, may lose their price advantage due to the new tariffs [14] Group 8: Future Considerations - Ongoing negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from trade partners are critical factors to monitor, as the aggressive tariff strategy may exert pressure on the U.S. economy [15] - The impact of tariffs on specific industries, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, remains to be fully assessed [15][16] Group 9: International Expectations - International forecasts indicate a pessimistic outlook for overall economic performance, with concerns about "stagflation" and the negative effects of policy uncertainty [16] - Industry-specific impacts, particularly on textiles and footwear in ASEAN countries, are anticipated to be significant [16]