2025 年 8 月 29 日 公司研究 盈利增速回正，转债转股可期 ——兴业银行（601166.SH）2025 年半年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：22.77 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 211.63 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 4,818.78 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 14.98/25.45 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 32.78% | 股价相对走势 资料来源：Wind | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -7.24 | -10.47 | 2.65 | | 绝对 | 0.26 | 5.22 | 38.47 | 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 "五大新赛道"布局深化，营收盈利正增长 ——兴业银行（60 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% within the next six months [26]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve positive growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, positioning itself among the top performers in the sector. Key areas such as the "Five New Tracks" are expected to drive rapid growth in corporate loans, while a reduction in deposit costs will support a smaller decline in net interest margins compared to peers. The company's asset quality remains stable despite ongoing risks in sectors like real estate and retail, which are considered manageable [1][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 212.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77.21 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% [2][3]. - The net interest income grew by 1.1% year-on-year, outperforming peers, primarily due to stable growth in loan volume and a smaller decline in interest margins [3][19]. Revenue and Profit Outlook - For 2025, the company is expected to maintain a trend of slight positive growth in both revenue and profit, driven by stable corporate loan growth aligned with national policy directions and optimized deposit costs [4][17]. Asset Quality - The company's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.07% as of Q4 2024, a slight decrease from the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio improved to 237.8%, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capabilities [2][11]. Loan and Deposit Dynamics - Total loans increased by 5% year-on-year, with a focus on corporate loans in key strategic areas. The company has also seen a 7.7% increase in total deposits, supported by a significant reduction in deposit costs [10][19]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income showed a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, but other non-interest income sources maintained a stable growth rate of 9%, helping to offset the decline in fee income [3][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to enhance its competitive advantages through its three main business lines: green banking, wealth management, and investment banking, with significant growth in green loans and wealth management assets under management [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Bank reported a revenue of 212.2 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77.2 billion yuan, up 0.1% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The bank's net interest income continued to grow steadily, supporting revenue, while profit growth turned positive, reflecting improved operational margins and management's focus on stable performance expectations [1] - The revenue growth of 0.7% in 2024 was lower than the 1.8% growth in the first nine months, and net profit showed a slight recovery from a 3% decline in the same period [1] Income Sources - Net interest income increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing 0.8 percentage points to revenue growth, with volume growth contributing 4 percentage points and margin contraction dragging down by 3.2 percentage points [1] - Non-interest income declined by 0.3% year-on-year, negatively impacting revenue growth by 0.1 percentage points, primarily due to a 13% drop in fee income [1][2] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 1.07% in Q4 2024, with the provision coverage ratio increasing by 4.2 percentage points to 238% [1][4] - The NPL generation rate for 2024 was estimated at 0.93%, down from 1.08% in 2023, indicating a stable improvement in asset quality [3][4] Loan Growth and Sector Focus - The number of corporate clients increased by 9.6% year-on-year to 1.54 million, with a significant focus on sectors such as technology, green finance, and inclusive finance [2] - Loan growth slowed in Q4 2024 to 5% due to active bill reduction, but a recovery is expected in 2025 [2][3] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio increased to over 30%, marking 15 consecutive years of increases, with a projected dividend yield of 4.93% for 2025 [3] Future Outlook - The bank anticipates a return to positive profit growth and a sustainable recovery in its profit statement, with revised profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 [6]