亚太股市上涨

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东盟观察丨经济基本面支撑亚太股市多周上涨,泰国和马来西亚后续或降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 00:04
Group 1: Market Performance - The majority of Asia-Pacific stock markets recorded gains last week, with the Jakarta Composite Index leading with a weekly increase of 4.01% [1] - Other notable performances include the Nikkei 225 Index rising by 0.67%, the KOSPI Index increasing by 1.92%, and the S&P/ASX200 Index up by 1.37% [1][2] - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets have seen five consecutive weeks of increases, although some indices experienced slight pullbacks [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China has alleviated market tensions and boosted investor confidence, contributing to the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2][3] - Economic fundamentals, such as better-than-expected export growth in China and Japan, are providing internal support for the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] Group 3: Foreign Investment - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into Asia-Pacific markets, with overseas investors net buying over 8 trillion yen (approximately $57 billion) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, the highest level since 2005 [3] - Thailand's stock market also saw strong foreign interest, with international funds net buying $9.95 million in Thai stocks, marking the highest level since February [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Despite the rise in stock markets, most Asia-Pacific currencies depreciated against the US dollar last week, with the Thai baht down 1.12% and the Singapore dollar down 0.19% [5] - The future performance of Asia-Pacific currencies will largely depend on US Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and China's economic policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Thailand and Malaysia may consider interest rate cuts to support their economies, while Indonesia and the Philippines have less incentive to lower rates [6] - The IMF has noted that Singapore's fiscal and monetary policies are adequately supporting its economy, with sufficient fiscal space to provide targeted support if needed [5] Group 6: Trade Dynamics - South Korea's exports to China have rebounded, with exports to China accounting for 21.8% of total exports in early May, driven by stable demand and deepening industrial ties [7][8] - Cooperation between Chinese and South Korean companies in sectors like electric vehicles and cosmetics is enhancing trade, with significant growth in exports of related materials and products [8]