Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market and its economic conditions, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade war and its implications for investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments - **Market Risk Appetite**: The market risk appetite is expected to recover, although economic uncertainties have become apparent, as indicated by the weakening of China's April PMI data and the anticipated depletion of excess consumer spending in the U.S. within 1-2 months [1][3] - **Focus on High Certainty Trends**: The strategy emphasizes focusing on three high-certainty trends despite the ongoing trade war and economic uncertainties [1][3] - **Chinese Technological Self-Reliance**: The enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities is highlighted as the foremost trend [2][4] - **Trade Facts Over Expectations**: The principle of "trading facts rather than expectations" is underscored, suggesting that the prices of global mainstream risk assets have returned to their original levels due to the trade war [3][5] - **Potential for Risk Appetite Recovery**: There is an expectation for further recovery in risk appetite, with A-shares likely to exhibit characteristics of warming risk sentiment and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings [5] - **Economic Variables in Q2**: It is anticipated that new variables may emerge affecting the Sino-American economy towards the end of Q2 [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **European Defense and Resource Trends**: The strategy also notes the unwavering trend of Europe rebuilding its defense capabilities and enhancing energy, infrastructure, and resource reserves [5] - **China's Dual Circulation Strategy**: The necessity for China to advance its "dual circulation" strategy, which involves improving social security and stimulating domestic demand, is emphasized as a policy imperative [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the principle of "trading facts, not expectations" should guide responses to uncertainties arising from the trade war, indicating a potential recovery in risk appetite and a focus on thematic trading opportunities in the A-share market [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump, major global stock indices have experienced a noticeable pullback of -20% to -5%, but indices such as India's NIFTY 50, Nikkei 225, and NASDAQ have fully recovered and recorded positive returns [3]. - The commodity market shows a mixed performance, with precious metals and agricultural products achieving positive returns, while industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper have seen minimal declines [3]. Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in April, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakening economic conditions [12]. - The new export orders index dropped to 44.7%, significantly below the five-year average, primarily due to reduced exports to the U.S. [12]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests focusing on three enduring trends: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, Europe's reconstruction of autonomous defense, and the necessity for China to promote domestic circulation and improve social security [14][15]. - A-shares are expected to exhibit a warming risk preference and thematic rotation, with an emphasis on low institutional holdings [9][10]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that May may see more bilateral trade agreements that are more symbolic than substantive, with a focus on maintaining economic stability [7][8]. - The potential impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and retail is expected to become evident by late May to mid-June, as American consumers deplete their pre-tariff stockpiles [13].