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华创证券:2026年交运行业弹性可期 红利续航与周期修复双重机遇
智通财经网· 2025-11-20 02:16
Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that the highway sector is expected to maintain resilience in 2026, with high dividend configurations being a preferred investment direction. The port industry is anticipated to shift from a single container-driven growth model to a dual-wheel structure of stable container growth (5%-8%) and a recovery in bulk cargo (2%-5%) by 2026, with stable pricing expected. There are strategic layout opportunities for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that focus on dividends and returning to growth expectations in the coming year [1]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is viewed as a preferred option for stable asset allocation due to low valuations and high dividends, with expected dividend yields around 5% for leading highway companies in 2026. Notable companies include Sichuan Chengyu (5.6%), Shandong Highway (5.0%), and Anhui Wantong Highway (5.0%), with higher yields for H-shares [2]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests strong performance driven by stable volume and pricing, alongside significant cost reduction opportunities. Key factors include potential optimization of toll policies and a favorable interest rate environment that could alleviate operational pressures for highway companies [2]. - High dividend characteristics are expected to remain stable in 2026, with clear three-year return plans from leading companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway [2]. Port Sector - The port sector is entering a strategic value era, transitioning from a perception of cyclical capacity assets to being recognized as global supply chain security hubs. This shift is driven by geopolitical factors and the need for strategic asset control [3]. - The industry is expected to see stable throughput and pricing in 2026, with a dual growth model of container stability and bulk cargo recovery. The average dividend payout ratio is projected to be 37.46%, indicating significant potential for increases [3]. Railway Sector - Passenger transport is expected to see steady growth, with flexible pricing mechanisms in place. Freight transport is also showing signs of improvement, particularly in coal and other cargo types [4][5]. Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is poised for a new growth phase in 2026, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu leading the way in transformation logic focused on profit margin enhancement and investor returns. The operational environment is recovering, with strong performance trends evident since 2025 [6][7]. - Strategic layout opportunities exist for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that emphasize dividends and growth expectations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The company continues to favor A/H share transportation assets, highlighting the importance of industry logic and valuation elasticity. Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway for their stable growth and high dividends, as well as other notable companies in the highway and port sectors [8].
华创证券:公路、港口业绩略增 铁路业绩承压 持续看好红利资产配置价值
智通财经网· 2025-09-03 09:27
Group 1: Highway Industry - The highway sector's toll revenue showed slight differentiation in H1 2025, with a total of 27.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [1] - The overall net profit growth rate for the highway industry in H1 2025 was 3.1%, with notable performers including Shenzhen Expressway (+24%) and Guangdong Expressway A (+23.6%) [1] - The current dividend yields for major highway companies are led by Sichuan Chengyu (5.1%) and Shandong Expressway (4.6%) [2] Group 2: Port Industry - The national port cargo throughput maintained steady growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, and container throughput grew by 6.9% [3] - The port industry achieved a net profit of 21.82 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [3] - Major cargo types showed varied growth rates, with container throughput increasing by 7.7% and coal decreasing by 1.8% [3] Group 3: Railway Industry - The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway reported a net profit of 6.316 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight decline of 0.64% year-on-year [4] - The Daqin Railway experienced a significant net profit drop of 29.82% in H1 2025, primarily due to decreased transport volume [4] - The current dividend yields for railway companies are led by Daqin Railway (4.3%) and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (2.2%) [4]