Group 1 - The US manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 53.3, indicating a recovery in industrial momentum [1] - Initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, the highest in eight weeks, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - The mixed economic signals present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing inflation pressures against employment slowdown risks [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from 82% to 74%, reflecting a slight reduction in market confidence [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that the September meeting remains "open," highlighting the contradictory economic signals [1] - Boston Fed President Collins suggested that if the labor market continues to face pressure, a rate cut in September remains a reasonable option [1] Group 3 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose to -17 in August, the highest in a year, benefiting from the Bank of England's rate cuts [1] - Despite the rise in consumer confidence, concerns about persistent inflation, rising employment risks, and fiscal pressures limit the sustainability of this recovery [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate shows signs of weakness, currently trading below the 20-day moving average [1] Group 4 - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI remains around 45, indicating a neutral to weak price range [2] - A rebound above 1.3450 could test the resistance at 1.3520, while a drop below 1.3380 may accelerate the decline towards 1.3300 [2] - The current rebound in GBP/USD appears to be more of a technical correction rather than driven by fundamental factors [2]