然而，同期初请失业金人数增加至23.5万，创八周新高，反映出劳动力市场出现边际降温迹象。这一冷 热交织的局面令美联储面临两难：一方面需要应对通胀压力，另一方面则要考虑就业的放缓风险。 美国公布的8月初值PMI显示制造业和综合指数均超预期上行，制造业PMI大幅回升至53.3，显示出产业 动能的修复。 MACD绿柱缩短，显示空头动能有所减弱；RSI维持在45附近，表明汇价处于中性偏弱区间。若汇价反 弹能站稳1.3450上方，则有望进一步测试1.3520阻力；反之，若跌破1.3380支撑，可能加速下探至 1.3300。 某外汇市场策略师表示："英镑(1.3405, -0.0007, -0.05%)在弱势美元的间歇性回调中获得喘息，但整体走 势依旧取决于鲍威尔讲话是否暗示9月降息的力度。" 编辑观点： 目前GBP/USD的反弹更像是技术性修复，而非基本面驱动。美国数据的分化和美联储官员的立场摇 摆，使得市场在杰克逊霍尔年会上寻找政策信号。 若鲍威尔偏鹰，美元可能再次走强，英镑承压下探1.3300；若言论温和，则英镑或在1.3450之上企稳。 因此，短期保持谨慎，关注1.3380至1.3520区间的突破方向。 据CME ...

Group 1 - The article provides a step-by-step guide for selecting currency pairs based on different trading styles, emphasizing the need for alignment between trading style and currency characteristics [1][2][5]. - Day trading is characterized by short holding periods, relying on technical analysis for small profit margins, with recommended pairs including EUR/USD and USD/JPY due to their high liquidity and low spreads [2][4]. - Swing trading focuses on capturing medium-term trends over days to weeks, with suitable pairs like AUD/USD and GBP/USD driven by fundamental factors such as commodity prices and policy expectations [5][7][8]. Group 2 - Carry trade involves long-term positions to earn interest rate differentials, favoring high-yield currencies while managing exchange rate risks [12][15]. - Event-driven trading capitalizes on market reactions to economic data releases, with pairs like USD/JPY and USD/TRY being highlighted for their volatility during such events [4][22]. - Algorithmic trading strategies include statistical arbitrage, monitoring price discrepancies between currency pairs, and utilizing low-latency execution for optimal performance [14][15][26]. Group 3 - The article outlines a five-step self-assessment method for traders to evaluate their risk tolerance, time commitment, and tool compatibility when selecting currency pairs [17][19][21]. - Recommended currency pairs for different trading styles include EUR/USD and XAU/USD for day trading, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for swing trading, and AUD/JPY and USD/ZAR for carry trading, each with specific risk management parameters [21][22][23]. - Common pitfalls for novice traders include mismatching trading styles with currency pairs, overlooking overnight costs, and overtrading less liquid pairs [24][25][26].

Group 1: Major Currency Pairs - EUR/USD is influenced by the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 boosting the dollar [1]. - Economic data comparisons such as GDP, CPI, and various economic indices are critical for EUR/USD analysis [1]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European energy supply, affect the euro's performance [2]. - The USD/JPY pair is driven by the interest rate differential and the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy, with adjustments in policy leading to significant currency movements [4][5]. - The USD/JPY is also affected by global risk sentiment, with a negative correlation to the VIX index [6]. - GBP/USD is shaped by the Bank of England's policy challenges, particularly balancing persistent inflation above 10% with recession risks [9]. - Post-Brexit trade issues and high energy prices further complicate the GBP/USD outlook [10][11]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Pairs - AUD/USD is primarily driven by commodity prices, especially iron ore, which constitutes 40% of Australia's exports [13]. - Changes in Chinese demand, particularly in real estate, significantly impact AUD/USD [14]. - The USD/CAD pair is influenced by oil prices, with Canada being the fourth-largest oil exporter globally [18]. - The Canadian economy's reliance on U.S. trade, with over 75% of exports going to the U.S., also plays a crucial role in USD/CAD dynamics [20]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Currency Pairs - USD/CHF is affected by European political risks, with the Swiss franc acting as a safe haven during crises [22]. - The Swiss economy's low inflation and high current account surplus support the long-term appreciation of the franc [23]. - Gold (XAU/USD) is influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, with significant demand seen in 2022 [27]. Group 4: Emerging Market Currency Pairs - The USD/TRY pair is impacted by extreme inflation in Turkey, which exceeded 80% in 2023, alongside irrational monetary policy decisions [32]. - The Turkish lira's depreciation is exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves covering less than three months of imports [33]. - Geopolitical risks related to Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe also affect investor confidence [34]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis Tools - Economic indicators are prioritized differently for various currency pairs, with CPI differences and central bank decisions being top indicators for EUR/USD [36]. - Data release timings, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, are critical for market volatility [37]. - A comprehensive analysis framework is essential for understanding the dynamics of currency pairs, focusing on both long-term structural factors and short-term events [46].