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美元熊市格局的必然性-The USD Bear Regime Necessities
2025-09-25 05:58
September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy The USD Bear Regime Necessities Forget about USD strength, your worries, and your strife. The Fed's reaction function shift suggests a sustained period of the USD bear regime which means a large but increasingly broad USD sell-off. We expand our USD 'sell list' to beyond the DXY majors to include AUD and CAD. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT | | Global Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | G10 FX Strategy | Morg ...
KVB PRIME:英镑能否突破1.3700关口并延续上涨走势?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 10:47
Core Viewpoint - GBP/USD has reached a two-month high around 1.3660, driven by a weaker dollar and positive UK employment data [1]. Technical Overview - The Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level at 1.3640 serves as immediate resistance. A breakout above this level could lead to the next resistance at 1.3700, followed by 1.3770 [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.3600, 1.3540, and 1.3500 [4]. Fundamental Overview - UK ILO unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7%, aligning with expectations. Average salary growth, excluding bonuses, slightly decreased from 5% to 4.8%, matching market consensus [6]. - The market is currently focused on upcoming US retail sales data, which could provide short-term support for the dollar if stronger than expected [6]. - Improved risk sentiment has pressured the dollar, with expectations of a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve contributing to this trend [5].
美元指数走强,施压镑美持续走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 07:49
Group 1 - The US manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 53.3, indicating a recovery in industrial momentum [1] - Initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, the highest in eight weeks, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - The mixed economic signals present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing inflation pressures against employment slowdown risks [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from 82% to 74%, reflecting a slight reduction in market confidence [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that the September meeting remains "open," highlighting the contradictory economic signals [1] - Boston Fed President Collins suggested that if the labor market continues to face pressure, a rate cut in September remains a reasonable option [1] Group 3 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose to -17 in August, the highest in a year, benefiting from the Bank of England's rate cuts [1] - Despite the rise in consumer confidence, concerns about persistent inflation, rising employment risks, and fiscal pressures limit the sustainability of this recovery [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate shows signs of weakness, currently trading below the 20-day moving average [1] Group 4 - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI remains around 45, indicating a neutral to weak price range [2] - A rebound above 1.3450 could test the resistance at 1.3520, while a drop below 1.3380 may accelerate the decline towards 1.3300 [2] - The current rebound in GBP/USD appears to be more of a technical correction rather than driven by fundamental factors [2]
Vatee外汇:GBP USD 技术分析——聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:55
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that GBP/USD has been declining this week as traders adopt defensive positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - The US dollar has strengthened due to market expectations of a hawkish stance from Powell, leading to a tense market environment [3] - The recent data does not support a pre-commitment to rate cuts in September, as initial jobless claims continue to improve and inflation data rises [3] Group 2 - The UK central bank's last meeting was hawkish, and recent data, including CPI, has exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience and ongoing inflation pressure [3] - Despite a weak labor market, the central bank remains focused on inflation, aiming to return to a 2% target, with core inflation remaining above 3% since 2021 [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that GBP/USD faced rejection at the key level of 1.3590 and may continue to decline towards 1.3368, where buyers might set risk entry points for a rebound [6] - The 4-hour chart shows a slight downtrend, suggesting sellers may continue to exert pressure, while buyers aim for a breakout to the upside [7] Group 4 - Upcoming catalysts include the release of the latest US initial jobless claims data and PMI figures, with a focus on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium [8]
【UNFX课堂】外汇选择适合自己交易风格的货币对
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 08:49
Group 1 - The article provides a step-by-step guide for selecting currency pairs based on different trading styles, emphasizing the need for alignment between trading style and currency characteristics [1][2][5]. - Day trading is characterized by short holding periods, relying on technical analysis for small profit margins, with recommended pairs including EUR/USD and USD/JPY due to their high liquidity and low spreads [2][4]. - Swing trading focuses on capturing medium-term trends over days to weeks, with suitable pairs like AUD/USD and GBP/USD driven by fundamental factors such as commodity prices and policy expectations [5][7][8]. Group 2 - Carry trade involves long-term positions to earn interest rate differentials, favoring high-yield currencies while managing exchange rate risks [12][15]. - Event-driven trading capitalizes on market reactions to economic data releases, with pairs like USD/JPY and USD/TRY being highlighted for their volatility during such events [4][22]. - Algorithmic trading strategies include statistical arbitrage, monitoring price discrepancies between currency pairs, and utilizing low-latency execution for optimal performance [14][15][26]. Group 3 - The article outlines a five-step self-assessment method for traders to evaluate their risk tolerance, time commitment, and tool compatibility when selecting currency pairs [17][19][21]. - Recommended currency pairs for different trading styles include EUR/USD and XAU/USD for day trading, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for swing trading, and AUD/JPY and USD/ZAR for carry trading, each with specific risk management parameters [21][22][23]. - Common pitfalls for novice traders include mismatching trading styles with currency pairs, overlooking overnight costs, and overtrading less liquid pairs [24][25][26].
【UNFX课堂】外汇分析不同货币对的基本面因素
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 04:03
Group 1: Major Currency Pairs - EUR/USD is influenced by the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 boosting the dollar [1]. - Economic data comparisons such as GDP, CPI, and various economic indices are critical for EUR/USD analysis [1]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European energy supply, affect the euro's performance [2]. - The USD/JPY pair is driven by the interest rate differential and the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy, with adjustments in policy leading to significant currency movements [4][5]. - The USD/JPY is also affected by global risk sentiment, with a negative correlation to the VIX index [6]. - GBP/USD is shaped by the Bank of England's policy challenges, particularly balancing persistent inflation above 10% with recession risks [9]. - Post-Brexit trade issues and high energy prices further complicate the GBP/USD outlook [10][11]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Pairs - AUD/USD is primarily driven by commodity prices, especially iron ore, which constitutes 40% of Australia's exports [13]. - Changes in Chinese demand, particularly in real estate, significantly impact AUD/USD [14]. - The USD/CAD pair is influenced by oil prices, with Canada being the fourth-largest oil exporter globally [18]. - The Canadian economy's reliance on U.S. trade, with over 75% of exports going to the U.S., also plays a crucial role in USD/CAD dynamics [20]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Currency Pairs - USD/CHF is affected by European political risks, with the Swiss franc acting as a safe haven during crises [22]. - The Swiss economy's low inflation and high current account surplus support the long-term appreciation of the franc [23]. - Gold (XAU/USD) is influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, with significant demand seen in 2022 [27]. Group 4: Emerging Market Currency Pairs - The USD/TRY pair is impacted by extreme inflation in Turkey, which exceeded 80% in 2023, alongside irrational monetary policy decisions [32]. - The Turkish lira's depreciation is exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves covering less than three months of imports [33]. - Geopolitical risks related to Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe also affect investor confidence [34]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis Tools - Economic indicators are prioritized differently for various currency pairs, with CPI differences and central bank decisions being top indicators for EUR/USD [36]. - Data release timings, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, are critical for market volatility [37]. - A comprehensive analysis framework is essential for understanding the dynamics of currency pairs, focusing on both long-term structural factors and short-term events [46].