Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of narratives in shaping market expectations and collective consciousness, suggesting that contemporary wisdom evolves from questioning to creating narratives [1] - It highlights the need for a bottom-up approach to observe commodity situations, noting that the black series (like rebar and coking coal) is constrained by weak real estate investment and high inventory levels [2] - The article points out a shift in market sentiment due to the Federal Reserve's indications of further interest rate easing, which has improved risk appetite and optimism regarding global economic recovery [3] Group 2 - It identifies potential risks, including rising unemployment and inflation overseas, but suggests that the probability of China entering deflation is low, indicating a solid safety margin for commodity bulls [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics, particularly in lithium carbonate, coking coal, and polysilicon, as these sectors may see tightening supply and recovering demand [4] - It notes a change in coal production attitudes, with a reported decrease in coal output and imports, indicating a strong underlying market [6] Group 3 - The article suggests a shift away from traditional commodity tracking methods, indicating that the Chinese economy's reliance on real estate is decreasing, which may open new consumption windows, particularly in energy-related sectors [9] - It highlights the significance of electricity consumption as a key indicator of manufacturing strength, with July's electricity usage surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [9] - The oil market is projected to face significant oversupply in the coming quarters, with expectations of a surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day in Q4 and over 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [11] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for global liquidity improvement driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit commodities like copper and gold [12] - It notes that traditional and new energy metals are supported on the supply side, which may help stabilize commodity prices [12] - The article concludes that commodity volatility may signal changes in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of these indicators [13]