二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 国债期货周报 | | 唐立 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | 报告导读： | | | | | ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 国债期货长端合约周度回落。 ◼ 周内全球权益市场回调，出现流动性危机信号。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡分化格局，短端品种相对稳定，长端品种受政策预期与权益市场扰动波动 加剧。央行重启 8000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购操作，释放流动性呵护信号，但政策协同效应（如专项 债发行）削弱了供给冲击。展望未来，利率债与国债期货的分歧点将在于政策上对于内需激发、反内卷的 期待与宏观基本面相对疲弱下的交织情景。整体看移仓换 ...

Core Insights - A significant and unexpected cooling of inflation in the U.S. is indicated for October, primarily driven by a notable drop in housing rents, marking the largest monthly decline in fifteen years [1][3] - This trend challenges previous market expectations of persistent price stability and may provide new grounds for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish policy stance [1] - Alternative data sources are being closely monitored due to potential delays in the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1] Inflation Trends - According to CoStar, October saw a month-over-month rent decrease of 0.31%, the largest drop in over fifteen years [3] - OpenBrand's data shows that inflation rates for durable goods and personal items have significantly slowed due to increased retailer discounts, with a 0.22% rise in October compared to 0.48% in September [2] - The average discount rate in October reached 20.4%, nearing the highest level since July of the previous year [2] Housing Market Dynamics - The rental market is showing signs of weakness, with effective apartment rents in major markets like Denver, Austin, and Phoenix experiencing year-over-year declines of 8.1%, 7.4%, and 5.9%, respectively [6][7] - Invitation Homes reported negative growth in new lease rents for the first time since its IPO in 2017, indicating a broader trend in the single-family rental market [7] - Zillow has revised its rental growth forecasts for single-family homes down to 2.0% for 2026, with multi-family units expected to decline by 0.4% [9] Economic Implications - The ongoing decline in rental prices may signal further downward pressure on the overall real estate market, as rental prices serve as a long-term anchor for housing prices [11] - A significant drop in immigration job applications, which have decreased by 60% over the past four to five months, is linked to reduced rental demand, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance in the rental market [11] Inflation Resilience - Despite signs of cooling in rents and some commodity prices, Goldman Sachs' model suggests that core inflation remains resilient, estimating a 0.24% month-over-month increase in core CPI for October [14] - The model predicts price increases in used cars (+0.5%), new cars (+0.3%), airline tickets (+1%), and hotel prices (+1%), while forecasting a decline in auto insurance prices (-0.3%) [14] - The complexity of the overall inflation outlook necessitates caution among investors as they await potentially delayed official data to assess the true inflation trajectory [14]

Group 1 - The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing a 0.3% decline in September and exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% decrease [1][3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to the consumption boost during the Golden Week holiday, with significant increases in service consumption and prices, particularly in travel, dining, and transportation [3][5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, maintained a steady growth of 1.2%, indicating a stable domestic consumption base supported by essential services like healthcare and education [5][7] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and GDP deflator indicate deeper economic issues, with the PPI showing a 2.9% year-on-year decline, marking 37 consecutive months in negative territory [5][7] - The GDP deflator has been declining for over two years, suggesting that nominal GDP growth is lagging behind actual GDP growth, raising concerns about economic quality and sustainability [7][9] - Policy measures are being implemented to curb price wars in sectors like electric vehicles and food delivery, aiming to stabilize growth while preventing deflation [9][10] Group 3 - The central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery in prices, with potential measures including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates to boost liquidity and demand [10][12] - Consumers are advised to adopt rational consumption behaviors, focusing on essential purchases and avoiding excessive stockpiling, while investors are encouraged to steer clear of weak cyclical industries and focus on healthcare, education, and emerging sectors [12]

Core Insights - Deflation pressures in China eased in October as consumer prices returned to growth after two months of decline, while producer prices continued to fall for three consecutive years due to weak domestic demand and declining exports [1][2][3] Consumer Prices - The consumer price index (CPI) for October was reported at 0.2%, surpassing analysts' expectations of flat growth, following a 0.3% decline in September [2] - Month-on-month, consumer prices also increased by 0.2%, again exceeding expectations of no growth [2] Producer Prices - Producer prices fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October, slightly better than the expected 2.2% decline, marking three years of negative growth [3] - Month-on-month, producer prices saw a marginal increase of 0.1% [3] Economic Policies and Domestic Demand - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand have started to show positive effects, aided by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4] - Industrial profits in September rose over 21%, indicating some success in curbing price wars and stimulating demand [5] Manufacturing Activity - Manufacturing activity in October contracted more than anticipated, reaching its lowest level in six months, with significant declines in production, new orders, raw material inventory, and employment [6] Export Challenges - Trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic consumer confidence have created demand uncertainty for Chinese producers, with exports unexpectedly contracting in October [7] - Shipments to the U.S. experienced a 25% decline, marking the seventh consecutive month of double-digit decreases [7] Future Outlook - A potential easing of export challenges may arise from a trade truce agreed upon by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping [8] - China's leadership emphasized the need to boost domestic consumption while balancing it with effective investment strategies [9]

Core Insights - The Eurozone economy shows a clear divergence in early Q4, with significant recovery in business activity but ongoing pressure on industrial prices [1][2] - The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October rose to 52.5, indicating the fastest expansion since May 2023, driven mainly by a surge in service sector activity [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September declined for the second consecutive month, reflecting persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [1][2] Economic Indicators - The final value of the Eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.5, up from the initial estimate of 52.2 and September's 51.2, signaling a notable acceleration in overall economic activity [1] - Service sector activity accelerated sharply, becoming the primary growth driver, while manufacturing output saw only a slight increase [1] - New business volumes grew at the fastest pace in two and a half years, contributing to a 16-month high in employment growth [1] Price Trends - The Eurozone's PPI for September fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second month of negative growth, and the year-on-year decline was 0.2%, consistent with expectations [1][2] - Energy prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, continuing to be a major factor in the PPI decline, following a 1.5% drop in August [1] - Core PPI, excluding energy, remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%, indicating stability in non-energy industrial prices [1] Sector Analysis - Durable consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, while non-durable consumer goods prices saw a slight rise of 0.1% [2] - Intermediate goods prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and capital goods prices remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [2] - The current economic structure in the Eurozone is characterized by strong service sector performance and weak manufacturing, with stable consumer demand but cautious investment in industrial sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS experts suggest that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to lower interest rates again, as they anticipate insufficient medium-term deflationary pressure [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The SNB believes that the inflation outlook aligns with its price stability target, and the impact of tariff shocks on growth is moderate [1] - In October, Switzerland's inflation rate slightly decreased to 0.1% from 0.2% in September [1] Group 2: Conditions for Negative Interest Rates - The SNB would consider negative interest rates only if three conditions are met: a significant weakening of the Swiss economic outlook, further rate cuts by the European Central Bank that narrow interest rate differentials, and persistent upward pressure on the Swiss franc, which would worsen the medium-term inflation outlook [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the **Asian economies** and their exposure to **deflationary pressures from China**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Economic Challenges**: China has been facing deflationary pressures for ten consecutive quarters, with the GDP deflator remaining negative as of Q3 2025. This situation is exacerbated by overcapacity and trade tensions with the U.S. [1][2][3] 2. **Impact on Other Asian Economies**: The deflationary environment in China is leading to weaker non-commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) in other Asian economies. Countries like **Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea** are identified as the most affected, while **Australia and Japan** are the least impacted [2][11][64]. 3. **Central Bank Policies**: Eight out of ten Asian economies are experiencing inflation levels below their central banks' comfort zones, prompting a trend of interest rate cuts. There is still room for further rate reductions to manage real interest rate trends [2][3]. 4. **Risk Factors**: The primary risks to the current deflationary scenario include a global economic recovery, particularly in the U.S., or increased demand stimulation efforts from China [3][4]. 5. **Trade Dynamics**: China's trade surplus has increased significantly, with exports to regions outside the U.S. growing by an average of 10% year-on-year in 2025. This has led to a rise in the share of exports to other Asian economies [46][47]. 6. **Sectoral Analysis**: The report identifies specific sectors that are most affected by deflationary pressures, including **automobiles, electronics, and electrical equipment**. These sectors have contributed significantly to the expansion of China's trade surplus [57][61]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Framework for Assessment**: A scoring framework was developed to evaluate the relative exposure of Asian economies to China's deflationary pressures, considering factors such as PPI weight, correlation with Chinese PPI, and export structure similarity [2][64]. 2. **PPI Trends**: Non-commodity PPI trends in Asia outside of China closely follow those in China, indicating a strong correlation in pricing dynamics [12][69]. 3. **Long-term Outlook**: The report suggests that without significant demand stimulation measures, it will be challenging for China and its neighboring economies to escape the deflationary cycle [2][36]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: The automotive sector continues to experience price declines, with electric vehicle discounts widening. Battery manufacturing also remains in a deflationary zone, with prices dropping significantly [45][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of China's economic situation with other Asian economies and the implications for future economic policies and investment opportunities.

Oil Market Insights - Current crude oil prices around $57 per barrel are near the US production break-even cost, with the US now being a net exporter of energy, including crude oil, ethanol, and LNG, amidst declining global demand, particularly from China [1] - The oil market is experiencing a surplus, with over 1 billion barrels accumulated in the world's tanker fleet, indicating a significant excess supply [2] - The ongoing cycle in the oil market suggests a trend towards lower prices due to excess supply, with crude oil prices down approximately 20% this year while the S&P 500 is up nearly 20% [5] Commodity Trends - The disparity between gold and crude oil prices is at a historical high, with gold up 65% and crude oil down 20%, marking the largest difference in 100 years [6][7] - The soybean market is facing similar challenges as crude oil, with increased production incentivized by high prices in 2022, leading to a surplus and lower prices [8] - China has shifted its soybean imports away from the US, now sourcing primarily from Brazil, which is impacting US soybean prices, currently hovering around $10 per bushel [9][10] Production and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of soybean production in the US is estimated at around $9.75 per bushel, indicating potential pressure on US farmers as prices may continue to decline [12] - The overall trend in both oil and soybean markets points towards a "low price cure," which could lead to economic challenges for producers, particularly US farmers [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to maintain the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for October, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, marking five consecutive months without a change [3][5]. Group 1: Reasons for No Rate Cut - The narrowing interest margin is causing banks to earn less, with the net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.42%, making further rate cuts potentially unprofitable for banks [7]. - The policy interest rates have not changed, which means the pricing anchor for LPR remains stable, preventing any reduction [8][9]. - Market interest rates have increased, with the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit yield rising from 1.43% in August to 1.65% in September, leading to higher financing costs for banks and reducing the incentive to lower LPR [10]. - The central bank is assessing the effects of previous monetary policies, including a recent injection of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and a similar amount for local government debt limits, which require time to show results [11]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Experts suggest there may still be room for a rate cut by the end of the year, potentially by 50 basis points, due to concerning economic indicators such as a 0.3% year-on-year decline in CPI and a core CPI of only 1.0%, indicating deflationary pressures [13]. - The acceleration of growth-stabilizing policies, including the recent introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local government debt limits, may also support the case for a rate cut [13]. - The external pressure from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may weaken, allowing the PBOC to consider targeted adjustments, particularly to the 5-year LPR to support the real estate market [13].

Group 1: Economic Structure and Demand Gap - Income distribution is increasingly skewed towards capital, leading to a concentration of wealth among high-net-worth individuals with low marginal propensity to consume, while labor income shares shrink[1] - This structural imbalance creates a persistent "demand gap," as high-income groups do not consume enough to match their income, while low-income groups lack disposable income despite their higher consumption willingness[1] - The reliance on credit expansion to mitigate demand shortfalls is limited; if debt expansion among households, government, and net exports stalls, the demand gap will widen, resulting in deflationary pressures[1] Group 2: Debt Cycle and Economic Trends - From 1992 to 2009, China experienced alternating expansions of household debt and net exports to balance supply and demand[2] - Between 2009 and 2018, household leverage rose significantly, becoming the primary driver of demand, but from 2020 to 2024, household leverage plateaued while government leverage increased, failing to prevent deflation[2] - The capital income share in China has been on the rise since 2015, and the slowdown in service sector growth from 2021 to 2024 may further exacerbate income distribution issues, increasing the demand gap[2] Group 3: Policy Implications and Historical Context - The experience of price recovery in 2016-2017 is unlikely to be replicated due to the current plateau in household leverage and a significant demand gap[3] - Structural reforms in income distribution and government spending optimization are necessary to reduce the demand gap and enable future price recovery once households regain leverage capacity[3] - Risk factors include potential market volatility abroad and uncertainties in domestic policy execution, which could impact economic stability[4]