Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of narratives in shaping market expectations and collective consciousness, suggesting that contemporary wisdom evolves from questioning to creating narratives [1] - It highlights the need for a bottom-up approach to observe commodity situations, noting that the black series (like rebar and coking coal) is constrained by weak real estate investment and high inventory levels [2] - The article points out a shift in market sentiment due to the Federal Reserve's indications of further interest rate easing, which has improved risk appetite and optimism regarding global economic recovery [3] Group 2 - It identifies potential risks, including rising unemployment and inflation overseas, but suggests that the probability of China entering deflation is low, indicating a solid safety margin for commodity bulls [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics, particularly in lithium carbonate, coking coal, and polysilicon, as these sectors may see tightening supply and recovering demand [4] - It notes a change in coal production attitudes, with a reported decrease in coal output and imports, indicating a strong underlying market [6] Group 3 - The article suggests a shift away from traditional commodity tracking methods, indicating that the Chinese economy's reliance on real estate is decreasing, which may open new consumption windows, particularly in energy-related sectors [9] - It highlights the significance of electricity consumption as a key indicator of manufacturing strength, with July's electricity usage surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [9] - The oil market is projected to face significant oversupply in the coming quarters, with expectations of a surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day in Q4 and over 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [11] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for global liquidity improvement driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit commodities like copper and gold [12] - It notes that traditional and new energy metals are supported on the supply side, which may help stabilize commodity prices [12] - The article concludes that commodity volatility may signal changes in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of these indicators [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of "strong supply and stable demand" with a neutral to weak monthly spread structure, and its price trend may face pressure [4] - The benzene - ethylene market has an intensifying supply - demand mismatch, and the monthly spread may shift from the current Back structure to the Contango structure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On July 22, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 0.15% at 7481 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4 (-64 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.95% at 6278 yuan/ton [2] - On July 22, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 66.0 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 69.2 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6005 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2] - The inventory of benzene - ethylene sample factories was 20.8 tons (-0.1 tons), a month - on - month destocking of 0.7%, and the inventory of Jiangsu ports was 13.9 tons (+2.7 tons), a month - on - month stockpiling of 24.2%. Benzene - ethylene showed overall stockpiling [2] - The supply of benzene - ethylene remained stable overall as the maintenance devices returned. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene was 35.9 tons (-0.4 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3% (-0.9%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 53.2% (+2.1%), ABS was 65.9% (+0.9%), and PS was 50.6% (-0.5%), with the overall start - up rate recovering [3] 2. Fundamentals - **Pure Benzene**: Supply pressure is increasing as some previously maintained devices resume operation and the expected production of Yulong Petrochemical in August will further increase supply. Imports are expected to remain relatively high. Demand is expected to remain strong in the short term but may weaken in the long term due to weak terminal consumption. Port inventory is expected to gradually increase, showing a "strong supply and stable demand" pattern [4] - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Supply will increase significantly as device maintenance ends and new projects are expected to be put into production in August. Demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for the 3S industry. Inventory pressure will intensify, and the monthly spread may change from Back to Contango [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The price of benzene - ethylene main contract decreased by 0.15%, and the price of pure benzene main contract increased by 0.95%. The prices of upstream Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly [2][7] - **Output and Inventory**: The output of benzene - ethylene in China decreased slightly, and the output of pure benzene increased slightly. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. The port inventory of pure benzene decreased [8] - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of downstream products of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene varied. Some increased, and some decreased [9] 4. Industry News - Trump and Xi Jinping are reported to meet before or during the APEC Summit in South Korea [10] - The establishment conference of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was held, and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing attended and unveiled the company [10] - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [10] 5. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of prices, costs, inventories, and start - up rates of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene and their downstream products [11][16][17]