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产业锚定3:业绩催化和题材催化
猛兽派选股· 2025-05-22 06:05
业绩永不眠 这个话题,应该有不少想法、说法和疑惑的。 最典型的是业绩无用论,在广大散户中间广为流传。之所以业绩无用论会广为流传,是因为业绩确实和 日间轮动相关度不高,且被题材炒作所排斥。当一个人天天盯着水面的泡泡时,大抵是感觉不到水下的 湍流的。 很少有人去验证业绩成长和股价长期走势之间的关系,这个工作其实不难,只需要把股价走势和业绩柱 状图叠加即可。就这样回溯一下历史数据,就不难发现,两者的一致性非常吻合,当然这里是指有持续 业绩增长的那类股票。那些常年不赚钱,或者有上顿没下顿,但突然连扳飙升的,是另外一个局,另外 一个体系。 《股票魔法师》第一册第七章和第八章就是探讨超级趋势股的驱动力量,把公司的利润增长放在了无论 怎样强调都不为过的位置,最后以"全力冲刺:密码33"一节作为结束,说的是净利润、销量(营收)、 净利润率三项,连续三个季度加速增长,视为上上之选。 在A股的实战中,这个结论是有效的,但仍然要和走势和强度指标结合,并非所有的高速成长股都会成 为锚,尤其是产业总锚,除了符合密码33或者业绩出现强烈反转之外,市场本身的选择也至关重 要.....,远的不说就说近的。 机器人产业总锚双林股份的业绩柱状图 ...
产业锚定2:轮动泡泡下的主线生长
猛兽派选股· 2025-05-17 08:38
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying and following leading stocks within a stable industry development framework, referred to as the "main line," which can last from 10 to 30 months. This approach is rooted in Mark's SEPA system and is crucial for effective investment strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Definition and Concept of Main Line - The term "main line" is defined as industry anchoring rather than short-term speculative trading. It represents a stable development trajectory in the market, contrasting with the day-to-day fluctuations of stock prices [1]. - The stock market is described as a chaotic system, where the main line serves as the underlying ordered structure amidst apparent randomness [2]. Group 2: Emergence of the Current Main Line - The article discusses the emergence of the current main line starting from September 24, highlighting that during significant market downturns, only a few stocks exhibit relative strength, indicating their potential as leading stocks [3]. - Examples of leading stocks during this period include Shuanglin Co., which showed resilience and continued to reach new highs even as the broader market declined [3][5]. Group 3: Unlocking Categories - The article outlines the process of unlocking various stock categories as the market recovers, with specific mentions of companies in the robotics and semiconductor sectors that led the charge during the recovery phase [6][9]. - Notable companies such as Hengxuan Technology and Lexin Technology are highlighted for their strong performance during market downturns, establishing them as early pioneers in their respective sectors [5][6]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The consumer sector is noted for its slower development in the first half of the year but is expected to have significant potential moving forward. Several companies in this sector have shown resilience and growth, particularly during market corrections [12]. - Examples include Zhongchong Co. and Marumi Biotech, which both reached new highs during the market's downturn, indicating strong underlying demand and potential for future growth [12]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Insights - The article advocates for a systematic approach to stock selection, focusing on observing resilient stocks during bear markets and tracking their performance over time, rather than engaging in random stock picking [13]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to develop a deep understanding of market dynamics and the ability to analyze and interpret data effectively to navigate the complexities of the stock market [13].
产业锚定1:幂律游戏中的方法论
猛兽派选股· 2025-05-13 04:30
换句话说也就是,只有锚定住具备赢者数量和空间优势的产业方向,才有可能抓住这个幂律的头部。无 论做短线还是中长线,认清楚产业方向都将事半功倍,反之则损兵折将。 股票市场的现实是:持续上涨的股票始终属于少数,以及这部分股票始终聚集在少数的产业方向,符合 幂律。 另一方面,投机者的结局是:只有不到20%的人不亏,赚钱的更加少数,也符合幂律。 所以,股票投机是一个幂律游戏,而不是一个随机游戏,如果是随机游戏,那么应该有50%的人胜出不 是? 马克在书中坦言,深入复盘所有大赢家股之后才终于破茧成蝶,结束了多年的亏损磨难。而我们这些所 谓的欧马门徒,都学了些什么,做了些什么?整天寻什么杯柄、VCP、口袋支点,这些形式主义的东 西,套来套去,断章取义,刻舟求剑,大部分欧马门徒都是这样玩残的,最后黯然离开山门。 产业锚定,成长锚定,是欧马体系精髓中的精髓,任何一轮牛市都有优势产业从小到大,高歌猛进,催 生出一些优秀的公司,而时代的机会大多一去不返。 即便如此,一个产业方向里面还有几百只股票,而买入持有往往也不超过10只,能不能搞对这又是一个 问题。 有关牛市运动中趋势领涨股和产业之间的关系,我在 #猛兽股研究 # 合集中有详 ...