一、行情回顾 市场全天震荡调整，盘面上，主线商业航天出现大分歧，中国卫通、航天科技等多股跌停；AI应用则顺势加强后分歧，AI医疗、AI制药表现突出，美年健 康、泓博医药、博济医药、兰卫医学等集体涨停；受益于主线分歧，今日盘中多个板块出现异动，油气股、消费、锂电等板块早盘盘中拉升，无人驾驶、变 压器午盘拉升。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市约3700股飘绿，今日成交3.7万亿，再次刷新历史记录。截止收盘沪指跌0.64%，深成指跌1.37%，创业板指跌 1.96%。 | 风口板块 更多 | | | | | | 涨跌幅榜 更多 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Al营销 | +1.77% | Al医疗 | +2.55% | 油服 | +1.44% | 精准医疗 +3.72% | 减肥药 +3.27% | CAR-T疗法 +3.22% | 航天 -6.17% | HEPS概念 -5.83% | | GEO (人工智能营销优化) 引关 | | AI4S推动创新药发展;OpenAl | | WTI原油日内 ...

从板块来看，看好军工板块的投资者比例大幅提高，环比提升6个百分点。 对下周上证指数怎么看? 4% ■ 震荡走高,突破4200点 43% ■ 晨荡走低,跌破4000点 ■ 横盘震荡 46% ■ 无法判断 7% A股持续震荡走高，投资者信心回升，但目前上证指数处于近十年高位，同样有部分投资者对市场上涨 势头有所迟疑。数据显示，43%的投资者认为下周市场将"震荡走高，突破4200点"；46%的投资者认为 市场将"横盘震荡"；仅有7%的投资者明确看空市场，表示下周市场将"震荡走低，跌破4000点"。 | 军工板块看好比例大幅提高 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 12月27日调管 | | 1月3日调查 | 1月10日调查 | | 大金融 | 6% | 5% | 4% | | 大消费 | 8% | 6% | 4% | | 医药 | 4% | 3% | 5% | | 科技 | 47% | 58% | 56% | | 年1 | 7% | 7% | 13% | | 有色金属 | 16% | 11% | 9% | | 新能源 | 8% | 4% | 2% | | 次新股 | - | ...

当前非Wi-Fi网络，继续播放将产生流量费用 ○反腐专题片《一步不停歇 半步不退让》今晚播出 ○事关App个人信息收集使用 网信办公开征求意见 ○市场监管投诉举报新规出台 向恶意索赔亮剑 ○内蒙古东北地区等地有大风降温降雪 由中央纪委国家监委宣传部与中央广播电视总台央视联合摄制的电视专题片《一步不停歇 半步不退让》，将于今天（11日）至14日在中央广播电视总台央 视综合频道晚8点档播出，央视新闻新媒体平台同步播发。 01:57 蓝光 超清 高清 流畅 继续播放 视频播放失败 建议打开央视新闻观看 近日，国家网信办起草了《互联网应用程序个人信息收集使用规定（征求意见稿）》，并向社会公开征求意见。征求意见稿提出，互联网应用程序不得频繁 索要个人信息权限，影响用户正常使用其他功能。 10日，市场监管总局公布新修订的《市场监督管理投诉举报处理办法》，将于4月15日起正式施行，《办法》进一步明确网店、直播间等平台内经营者的投 诉管辖权，同时将进一步规制滥用投诉举报制度的恶意索赔现象。 近日，商务部印发《大连等9城市服务业扩大开放综合试点任务》，聚焦支持电信服务及相关数字产业开放发展、提高医疗康养领域对外开放和服务保障水 ...

据上交所、深交所和北交所三大证券交易所消息，A股上市公司2025年分红超2.6万亿元，创历史新高。 多频次分红成为常态，中期分红超500家。专家表示，反映了上市公司经营稳定性和财务预测能力的提 升，这使得A股市场对全球长期资本的吸引力也在进一步增强。从分红规模来看，银行、石油石化、大 消费等行业是分红大户。此外，科技类上市公司积极分红，显示出企业盈利能力稳步提升。（央视财 经） ...

2026 年 1 月 4 日 宏观经济 新增政策逐渐落地，经济环比改善 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2025.12.29—2026.01.04） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 A 股大势研判：上周市场整体窄幅震荡，主要宽基指数涨跌不一，上证 综指上涨 0.1%，沪深 300、创业板指分别下跌 0.6%、1.3%。日均成交金额 为 2.11 万亿元，较前周小幅放量。两融余额为 2.56 万亿元，较前周小幅上 升，但融资买入占比小幅下降。年前市场交投情绪温和修复，政策靠前发力， 题材轮动或成主流。海外方面，美联储新任主席人选公布在即，考虑到特朗 普对美联储降息的迫切诉求，或进一步强化弱美元预期。国内险资新规落地 后，增量资金即将入市，海内外流动性共振下，春季行情有望顺势启动。 A 股配置策略：商业航天、涨价有色金属及锂电材料有望成为主要进攻 方向，海外科技股映射品种、低位消费、周期与红利板块则有望轮动。商业 航天领域，2026 年有望实现密集发射，近期仍处于催化密集期。锂电材料行 业利好延续，可关注长协价格落地情况及排产数据。其他涨价品种中，化工 板块可继续关注有机硅、炼化、MDI。大消费板块，首推乳制品、白电等性 价比红 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The stock index futures market has been oscillating along the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes, frequent sector rotations, and relatively mild market sentiment. Important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but in the short term, it will mainly oscillate. The expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the capital market is loose under the care of monetary policy, but the overall economy remains resilient, and prices are warming up. Therefore, the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% on Monday after a day of rising and then falling, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, with a trading volume of over 2.15 trillion. The short - term impact of policies on the market is expected to increase. The expected GDP growth rate of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted the balance - sheet expansion plan, but there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds. The short - term trend is oscillating [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts fell by 0.91%, 0.28%, 0.18%, and 0.07% respectively at the close. The central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 29, with a net injection of 415 billion yuan. DR001 fell 1.3BP to 1.24%, and DR007 rose 7BP to 1.59%. The short - term trend is relatively strong, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From December 26 to December 29, IH fell 0.44% (from 3,051.4 to 3,038.0), IF fell 0.61% (from 4,638.4 to 4,610.2), IC fell 0.70% (from 7,388.0 to 7,336.6), and IM fell 0.45% (from 7,472.4 to 7,439.0) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.35% (from 3,045.4 to 3,034.6), the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38% (from 4,657.2 to 4,639.4), the CSI 500 Index fell 0.38% (from 7,458.8 to 7,430.6), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.15% (from 7,605.5 to 7,594.2) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.07% (from 102.55 to 102.48), TF fell 0.20% (from 106.05 to 105.84), T fell 0.30% (from 108.30 to 107.98), and TL fell 1.01% (from 112.96 to 111.82) [3]. 3.3 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks declined, and the trading volume exceeded 2.15 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% [5]. - **Industry Sectors**: The carbon fiber concept strengthened, with stocks like Heshun Technology and Jilin Chemical Fiber hitting the daily limit. The digital currency concept rose, with stocks like Yuyin Co., Ltd. and Cuiwei Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The large - consumption and lithium - battery sectors declined, with stocks like Anji Food and Baida Group hitting the daily limit down and stocks like Sunwoda and Hongyuan Pharmaceutical falling more than 10% [5]. - **Popular Concepts**: Robot concept stocks remained active, with stocks like Shangwei New Materials and Buke Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs. The commercial aerospace concept continued to be strong, with stocks like China Satellite and Shenjian Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends, spot - bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital - interest rate trends of treasury bond futures main contracts [14][16][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and Japanese yen against the RMB, as well as the forward exchange rates and currency - pair exchange rates [24][28][30][32].

对于今天9连阳，上午是没有疑问的，下午跳水后我认为也是没有疑问的，主要是金融板块上涨，对沪指有明显的带动作用，可创业板并没有这种板块，于 是今天下跌了。其实自上周五开始，市场就已经不是普涨状态，都是待涨数据更多一些，今天指数虽然收出9连涨，但个股并没有任何的超卖信号。如果你 非得盯沪指看，明天说不定是这两天待涨的个股领涨，这两天扛指数的个股休整，所以光讨论指数是没有意义的。看赚钱效应，近期最强还是商业航天，其 次是机器人，两条主线各不相扰，如果你抓住了主线，这就是牛市，但如果抓住这两天待涨的，甚至上上周到今天还是待涨的，那指数那怕是10连阳与你又 何干呢？我觉得现在的指数已经不能用正常的观察手段去分析，如果主力真要涨，我认为涨到春节后也是可以的。所以关键的问题不是讨论昨天是不是10连 阳，而是指数走稳了，应该看好那些方向，在那些题材里配置可能跑赢市场，这样会更有讨论意义。 中线策略分析：【整体情况】 今天涨停过10家的有航天，机器人和ST板块，涨停数据排序是23-16-14-5-5，很明显，低于10家涨停的断层非常大，再加上航天8连板，机器人4连板，ST板 块6连板，大家想到啥？庄家抱团！对的，现在就是庄家抱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential for increased institutional buying power, which may drive the market index to break through its current resistance levels due to a combination of factors including a rebound in US tech stocks, appreciation of the RMB, and rising prices of metals like gold, silver, and copper [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days of gains," indicating a recovery in market trading volume and a positive shift in external uncertainties [2] - Institutional buying power is expected to strengthen as overseas capital flows back into Chinese assets, driven by a weak dollar environment and narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [2][3] Group 2 - The private equity fund sector is experiencing significant growth, with the total management scale increasing by 1.04 trillion yuan to reach 7.0076 trillion yuan in October 2025, and continuing to rise to 7.0383 trillion yuan in November [3] - The asset allocation of private equity funds has increased, with the average position rising to 66%, approaching historical averages seen during bull markets [3] - The current market conditions, including favorable policies and improved sentiment, are expected to enhance institutional buying power, potentially pushing the index closer to its yearly high [2][3]

| | ◎ ▽ ◎ 用 冊 の 元 | | | 花顺全A(沪深京) 883957 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1966 | +22.150 | | | +1.19% | | | | 1940.736 | | | | 买板块 | 中计2000年11月2 | | | | | | | | -38.82% | -13177283 | | | 李北 | | | | | 1867 | | | | | | | | | | | 1.04亿均等量 | | | | | | | | | | 1888.413 H 샵 | 1864.789 | | | 最新 | | | | | | +22.150 最高 | 1889.197 | | | 涨跌 | | | | | | +1.19%最低 | 1861.799 | | | 涨幅 | | | | | | A70/ +5/A | | | | | | 超势线 | | 大盘趋势线 ▼ 九转 加自选 均线 窗 预测 ▶ | | | 中证1000 000852 | | | | | | ...

12月20-21日，2025雪球嘉年华在上海举办。数十位重磅嘉宾围绕宏观环境展望、行业板块投资机遇及资产配置策略等核心议题展开了深度对话与 思想碰撞。 "长期主义"与"资产配置"成为贯穿全场的高频热词，在复杂市场中凝聚起对结构性机遇的清晰共识，为投资者布局2026年提供了多元而前瞻的思维 地图。而"AI"则以不同的视角深入到了几乎每一场演讲和讨论中。 宏观趋势研判 在全球格局中，中国资产的定位与潜力被反复论及。工银国际首席经济学家程实强调，中国经济的比较优势呈现系统性、全方位特征，成为全球经 济的"快变量"与"稳定器"，并指出中国资产正进入价值重估上升通道。程实总结两大核心观点：其一，以长期视角审视全球大类资产配置，"东升 西降"趋势仍在推进；其二，"格物致知，成事在人"，投资于物与投资于人的紧密结合，是理解中国式现代化、把握未来投资机遇的核心战略。 工银国际首席经济学家程实 中金公司研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策略分析师刘刚从市场微观结构出发，认为中国市场过剩流动性追逐"稀缺回报资产"的格局不变。 刘刚指出2025年全球市场呈现诸多反直觉、反常识的特征。其一，多类资产逻辑各异却实现同涨；其二，资产轮动剧 ...