产品销量企稳

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重庆啤酒(600132):产品销量企稳,成本红利释放
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-06 08:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 is 4.355 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items is 467 million yuan, an increase of 4.74% year-on-year [2][6] - Sales volume is gradually stabilizing, with Q1 2025 sales volume at 883.5 thousand kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%. However, the average price per ton has decreased by 0.46% year-on-year. Revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy products has increased by 1.21%, 1.99%, and 6.09% respectively [12] - The company benefits from a decrease in raw material prices, leading to a 1.45% reduction in cost per ton and an increase in gross margin by 0.52 percentage points to 48.42%. The net profit margin attributable to shareholders has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 10.85% [12] - The company is actively seeking transformation and investing in non-consumption channels to compensate for losses in on-premise consumption channels. The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.65, 2.76, and 2.85 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21X for 2025 and 2026, and 20X for 2027 [12] Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected total revenue is 14.923 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.618 billion yuan. The EPS is expected to be 2.65 yuan [19] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 10.968 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.595 billion yuan in 2027, while the total liabilities are expected to increase from 8.515 billion yuan to 9.721 billion yuan over the same period [19]