智通财经APP获悉，太平洋证券发布研报称，2026年建议关注餐饮链低基数下的修复如速冻食品，速冻 食品行业恶性竞争趋缓盈利能力有望修复；在餐饮修复提振需求以及龙头寻求新品类机遇下，板块估值 较低有望迎来戴维斯双击；看好低价高频刚需品类茶饮和饮料板块，其次看好零食板块，零食内部看好 有新品或者新渠道加成的公司。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期；行业竞争加剧；食品安全风险。 中央经济工作会议定调明年将提振内需放在首位，期待后续更多政策出台带动需求回暖。2025年高端奢 侈品国内消费数据Q3略有起色，受益于股市财富效应头部富人群体消费有所改善。若后续房价企稳叠 加政策助推，大众消费有望迎来改善。2025年食品饮料板块收益率排名靠后，多数企业释放报表端压 力，量价压力凸显，估值水位和市场预期相对偏低，餐饮链整体承压。2026年该行建议关注餐饮链低基 数下的修复如速冻食品，速冻食品行业恶性竞争趋缓盈利能力有望修复，在餐饮修复提振需求以及龙头 寻求新品类机遇下，板块估值较低有望迎来戴维斯双击。以及看好低价高频刚需品类茶饮和饮料板块， 饮料龙头东鹏和农夫平台化能力凸显看好新品类持续扩张，茶饮龙头蜜雪和古茗扩店确定性强，份额 ...

公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 政策利好供需改善，关注春节备货节奏 —— 公司动态报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 115,780 | 118,264 | 122,993 | 127,731 | | 收入增长率% | -8.24 | 2.15 | 4.00 | 3.85 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8,453 | 11,200 | 12,079 | 12,930 | | 利润增长率% | -18.94 | 32.50 | 7.84 | 7.05 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 1.34 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 2.04 | | PE | 21.78 | 16.43 | 15.24 | 14.24 | | PB | 3.46 | 3.19 | 3.01 | 2.86 | | PS | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 伊利股份（股票代码：6008 ...

2025年，邻二甲苯行业迎来盈利能力的根本性修复与重构，全年利润呈现鲜明的"前高后低"走势，摆脱 连续亏损局面。相较于2024年仅为89元(吨价，下同)的微薄平均利润，2025年邻二甲苯行业利润水平升 至296元。从二季度超越千元的历史性高点，到年末再度滑入亏损的阴影……邻二甲苯行业利润波动原 因都指向上游成本红利、出口引擎拉动与产能增长。 纵观2025年全年，邻二甲苯行业利润修复的本质是"成本坍塌"与"出口红利"共同作用下的阶段性成果， 具有一定的外部性和偶然性。而利润的收缩与转亏，反映出在产能扩张大周期下，邻二甲苯行业最终仍 将回归由自身供需基本面定价的残酷现实。出口市场扮演了至关重要的"缓冲阀"角色，延缓了供过于求 的现象，但未能改变国内供需结构转向宽松的长期趋势。展望未来，邻二甲苯行业利润能否维持正值区 间，将不再仅仅取决于一时的成本波动或出口机遇，更考验企业在供过于求常态下，如何通过技术升 级、成本控制与全球市场深度布局来构建持续的竞争力。 然而，邻二甲苯行业高利润局面难以持续。进入年中，尤其是6月之后，行业利润从高位逐步回落，这 一拐点的出现源于两股关键力量的叠加。首先是成本红利的消退，异构二甲苯 ...

食品饮料周报（25 年第 47 周） 优于大市 把握成本红利与效率提升主线，关注创新与困境反转机会 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 1.97%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 2.01%，跑赢沪深 300 约 2.29pct；H 股食品饮 料（恒生港股通食品饮料）上涨 1.36%，跑赢恒生消费指数 1.07pct。本周 食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为欢乐家(44.42%)、庄园牧场(35.96%)、皇氏集 团(21.16%)、均瑶健康(17.02%)和阳光乳业(14.72%)。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：需求仍然偏 弱，优质酒企聚焦供给端优化。当前板块进入左侧布局阶段，具备价位、区 域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间，推荐泸州老窖/山西汾酒、贵 州茅台、迎驾贡酒，也建议关注五粮液/洋河股份/舍得酒业的改革节奏。啤 酒：行业库存良性，静待需求回暖。全年啤酒龙头利润增长具备较强支撑， 建议积极布局啤酒板块，继续优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续深化、 业绩成长性强的燕京啤酒。（2） ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 食品饮料周报（25 年第 47 周） 优于大市 把握成本红利与效率提升主线，关注创新与困境反转机会 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 1.97%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 2.01%，跑赢沪深 300 约 2.29pct；H 股食品饮 料（恒生港股通食品饮料）上涨 1.36%，跑赢恒生消费指数 1.07pct。本周 食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为欢乐家(44.42%)、庄园牧场(35.96%)、皇氏集 团(21.16%)、均瑶健康(17.02%)和阳光乳业(14.72%)。 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：需求仍然偏 弱，优质酒企聚焦供给端优化。当前板块进入左侧布局阶段，具备价位、区 域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间，推荐泸州老窖/山西汾酒、贵 州茅台、迎驾贡酒，也建议关注五粮液/洋河股份/舍得酒业的改革节奏。啤 酒：行业库存良性，静待需求回暖。全年啤酒龙头利润增长具备较强支撑， 建议积极布局啤酒板块，继续优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续深化、 业绩成长性强的燕京啤酒。（2） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on reduced growth rates for 2024 and an expansion of performance declines in Q3 reports [1][2] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall volume and structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [1] - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies in Q4 could catalyze stock price increases due to low expectations in the capital market and low institutional holdings [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is recommended for investment, particularly companies with pricing power and regional influence, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, which are expected to achieve greater growth [2] - The consumer goods sector is anticipated to stabilize and improve in 2025, driven by inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, with leading companies in segments like sugar-free tea and functional beverages showing strong revenue growth [3] - The snack food segment reported a revenue increase of +22.4% and an 8.6% rise in profits in Q3 2025, despite rising costs from certain raw materials [3]

Core Viewpoint - Anqi Yeast reported a revenue increase of 8.01% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 11.786 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.116 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.13% increase [1] Revenue Summary - The company's overseas revenue maintained high growth, while domestic yeast and derivative products faced some pressure. Domestic revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 6.593 billion yuan, up 0.15% year-on-year, but down 3.49% in Q3 2025. In contrast, overseas revenue reached 5.15 billion yuan, up 20.96% year-on-year, with a 17.72% increase in Q3 2025 [2] - Excluding the sugar business, domestic revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 4.68%, with Q3 showing a decline of 1.35%. The yeast and deep processing products generated 8.398 billion yuan, up 8.91% year-on-year, while sugar products fell by 28.57% to 640 million yuan, and packaging products decreased by 12.65% to 268 million yuan. Food ingredients and others saw a significant increase of 26.51% to 2.437 billion yuan [2] Profit Summary - The cost advantage of molasses gradually manifested, but rising expenses impacted profit release. In Q3 2025, the net profit margin increased by 1.15 percentage points to 8.16%, and the gross profit margin rose by 3.08 percentage points to 24.43%. However, the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio all increased, which negatively affected profit margins [3] - The significant improvement in gross profit margin is attributed to the full utilization of molasses in the 2024/2025 sugar season, leading to cost benefits. The company is expected to see continued improvement in long-term profitability, with projected net profits of 1.563 billion yuan, 1.882 billion yuan, and 2.208 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 22, 18, and 15 times [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Southwest Securities has given Angel Yeast (600298.SH) a "buy" rating based on several positive factors [1] - The main reasons for the "buy" rating include steady growth in the yeast main business and excellent performance in overseas markets during Q3 [1] - Cost advantages combined with reduced shipping pressures have led to improved profitability in Q3 [1] - There is an expectation for continued improvement in domestic demand, along with a favorable expansion trend in overseas markets [1] Group 2 - The article also highlights potential risks, including significant fluctuations in raw material prices, exchange rates, and delays in capacity construction [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.12 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 970 million yuan, an increase of 15% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.89 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from yeast and deep processing products was 8.4 billion yuan (+8.9%), sugar products 640 million yuan (-28.6%), and packaging products 270 million yuan (-12.7%) [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue from these categories was 2.65 billion yuan (+2%), 260 million yuan (-17%), and 70 million yuan (-34%) respectively [1] - Domestic revenue in Q3 2025 was 2.19 billion yuan (-3.5%), while international revenue was 1.69 billion yuan (+17.7%) [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 25.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 24.4%, up 3.1 percentage points [2] - The improvement in gross margin was attributed to a decline in molasses costs, reduced shipping costs, and continuous product structure improvement [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Outlook - The company is the largest YE supplier and the second-largest yeast supplier globally, with a total yeast production capacity exceeding 450,000 tons [2] - Domestic molasses prices are expected to decline, and expansion in Egypt and Russia will enhance overseas cost advantages [2] - The outlook for revenue growth remains positive due to improving domestic yeast market demand and successful overseas expansion [2] Earnings Forecast - EPS is projected to be 1.78 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.43 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in offline channels, with a significant increase in profitability driven by cost reductions [3][6] - The company reported a revenue of 1.245 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.39%, and a net profit of 174 million yuan, up 43.34% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is recognized as a leader in the marinated snack sector, particularly known for its spicy chicken feet products [7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 474 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.70%, with net profit reaching 65 million yuan, up 44.79% year-on-year [5][6] - The revenue growth was driven by core product categories, with poultry products growing by 36.1% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 26.95% in Q3 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin channels [6] Channel Performance - Offline channels outperformed online channels in Q3 2025, with offline revenue growing by 33.6% compared to 17.7% for online [6] - The growth in offline channels is primarily due to the expansion of the Sam's Club channel and the stabilization of traditional channels [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from cost reductions and improved channel capabilities, which will enhance long-term growth prospects [6][7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.636 billion, 1.956 billion, and 2.229 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 228 million, 293 million, and 337 million yuan [7][8]