Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas is gradually being digested. Although there may be a callback window in September, going long on palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. The price increase in the future depends on domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents/lb, and India's finding additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil [1][2]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. There is a chance to go long on soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking in September and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues. The soybean - palm oil spread will show a weak, range - bound performance when palm oil is not in a callback period [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Palm Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The 01 contract of palm oil fell 1.69% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **Supply Side**: In Malaysia, the rainfall in September may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons, and August might be the peak of this year's output. In Indonesia, the refining profit and the Indonesia - Malaysia price spread increased this week. The inventory build - up in Malaysia from July to September slowed down significantly, and it is unlikely to exceed 2.3 million tons. Starting from September, Indonesia's inventory will reach the bottom, and the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will build up until October and then start to decline rapidly [2]. - **Demand Side**: In the European market, the demand for palm oil remains strong. In the Indian market, the import profits of crude soybean oil and crude sunflower oil are better than that of CPO, which will suppress India's palm oil imports to some extent. China's demand is the second target for the producing areas, but it is difficult for the soybean - palm oil spread to return above the par level to stimulate China's demand [2]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The market's trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter slowed down. The soybean oil market was in a high - level consolidation, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The 01 contract of soybean oil fell 0.93% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **US Market**: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. If the policies on import raw material subsidies are finalized, the policy negatives of US soybean oil will be exhausted, which will help reduce inventory [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The trend of the domestic soybean oil market depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade negotiation fails to remove the obstacles for Chinese enterprises to purchase US soybeans, the upward trend of the domestic soybean oil market after the National Day is expected to be more obvious [5]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are provided. The price spreads and changes of some varieties are also given [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Charts show the estimated production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in September, the inventory level of Indonesian palm oil, the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, Malaysia's palm oil export volume, the POGO price spread, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, India's palm oil import profit, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, and the cumulative import volume of palm oil and four major oils in the EU [10][11][13][14].