1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the weakening demand from aquaculture, along with the negative impact of domestic soybean auctions and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, have led to a weakening of demand. The futures price of rapeseed meal has been dragged down by the decline of US soybeans and has been in a weak and volatile state recently [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also facing a complex situation. The increase in Canadian rapeseed production and the decline in exports have constrained the futures price. But the change in German bio - fuel policy has provided a substitution space for rapeseed oil, boosting its biodiesel consumption. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to a continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the abundant supply of soybean oil have limited the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil price has rebounded from a low level due to the German biodiesel policy and is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,599 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,323 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 615.3 Canadian dollars/ton, down 18 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,487 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 293 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 78 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 87 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The position of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76,367 lots, down 13,761 lots; the position of the rapeseed meal main contract was 590,971 lots, up 11,723 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 4,175 lots, up 14,932 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 75,885 lots, up 13,249 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,490, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,410 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 9,818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,688.67 yuan/ton, down 20.24 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.96, down 0.04 [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0 tons, down 1,000 tons; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 523 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume was 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume was 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 51.99 billion yuan, up 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 10.46%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.73%, up 0.02% [2]. - Rapeseed oil options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 9.57%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 10 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell for the ninth time in the past ten trading days, but the price remained above the low on Monday. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 4.50 Canadian dollars at 615.40 Canadian dollars per ton; the March rapeseed futures contract fell 5 Canadian dollars to 626.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US soybean is in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans, and the price of US soybeans has recently fallen from a high level [2]. - Statistics Canada reported that the national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced in September and the market expectation of 21.25 million tons. The export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly this year, which has continued to constrain the futures price [3]. - The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market estimate of 2.66 million tons. The export of palm oil in Malaysia in the first 10 days was still declining, and the export was still weak, which dragged down the palm oil price. However, the palm oil production in the producing areas will enter the off - season later, and the implementation of seasonal production reduction needs to be watched [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both supply and demand weakness. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, but the demand is also weakening as the first shipment of Australian rapeseed may be crushed this month and the demand for aquaculture decreases with the temperature drop. Additionally, the domestic soybean auction news is negative for the domestic meal market, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating weakly recently, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and whether the China - Canada trade policy can make a breakthrough [2] - The rapeseed oil market continues to digest the negative news of the higher - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production and the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Although the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing due to supply restrictions, the sufficient supply of soybean oil with a good substitution advantage keeps the rapeseed oil demand at a rigid level. As a result, the futures price of rapeseed oil continues to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9443 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2329 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 633.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.4 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5508 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 290 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 69 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 90128 lots, down 18419 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 579248 lots, up 26385 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 19107 lots, down 4591 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 89134 lots, up 4358 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3490 sheets, down 231 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7708.91 yuan/ton, up 60.44 yuan; the spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.96, down 0.04; the basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Canada's rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0 tons, down 100 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 449 yuan/ton, down 204 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4276 thousand tons, down 67.4 thousand tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.93%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79% [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 10.4%, down 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.71%, up 0.18%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 9.72%, down 1.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.96%, up 0.17% [2] Industry News - On December 9 (Tuesday), the ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, ending an eight - day losing streak. The January rapeseed futures contract closed 6.20 Canadian dollars higher at 619.90 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 5.70 Canadian dollars to 631.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans have entered the export season with sufficient supply in the short term, and the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and the price of US soybeans has fallen from recent highs [2] - The MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market forecast of 2.66 million tons. The export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days is still declining, and the export is still weak, which drags down the price of Malaysian palm oil [2]

Agricultural Products - The CBOT soybean prices reached a six-month high due to market expectations of China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, with 84% of soybeans and 72% of corn harvested as of now [1] - Domestic protein meal prices showed volatility and did not follow the upward trend of soybeans, with a slight decrease in the main contract [1] Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, hitting a four-week low, influenced by weak surrounding markets and a rising Malaysian ringgit [2] - Domestic oil prices showed mixed results, with soybean and rapeseed oil slightly increasing while palm oil experienced a small decline [2] - High oil inventory levels and relaxed supply conditions are contributing to a weak basis in the market [2] Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract showed a strong upward trend, with spot prices in various regions increasing, such as Heilongjiang at 12.32 CNY/kg, up 0.27 CNY/kg from the previous day [3] - The overall pig price stabilized in mid-October, supported by increased market activity and a tightening supply of larger pigs [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture indicated a decrease in pork imports and an increase in consumption, predicting a rebound in live pig and pork prices in Q4 [3] Eggs - Egg futures continued to rebound, with the main contract closing up 1.56% at 3134 CNY/500kg, supported by rising spot prices in major production areas [4] - The market shows optimistic expectations for future supply improvements, although there is still pressure from excess production capacity [4] Corn - The main corn futures contract opened lower and continued to decline, recovering the price gains from the previous week due to increased new grain supply [5][6] - Prices in the Northeast region adjusted slightly, with varying adjustments based on local supply and processing demand [5][6] - The market remains under pressure from new grain supplies, particularly in North China, where high-quality grain is favored [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas is gradually being digested. Although there may be a callback window in September, going long on palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. The price increase in the future depends on domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents/lb, and India's finding additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil [1][2]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. There is a chance to go long on soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking in September and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues. The soybean - palm oil spread will show a weak, range - bound performance when palm oil is not in a callback period [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Palm Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The 01 contract of palm oil fell 1.69% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **Supply Side**: In Malaysia, the rainfall in September may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons, and August might be the peak of this year's output. In Indonesia, the refining profit and the Indonesia - Malaysia price spread increased this week. The inventory build - up in Malaysia from July to September slowed down significantly, and it is unlikely to exceed 2.3 million tons. Starting from September, Indonesia's inventory will reach the bottom, and the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will build up until October and then start to decline rapidly [2]. - **Demand Side**: In the European market, the demand for palm oil remains strong. In the Indian market, the import profits of crude soybean oil and crude sunflower oil are better than that of CPO, which will suppress India's palm oil imports to some extent. China's demand is the second target for the producing areas, but it is difficult for the soybean - palm oil spread to return above the par level to stimulate China's demand [2]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The market's trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter slowed down. The soybean oil market was in a high - level consolidation, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The 01 contract of soybean oil fell 0.93% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **US Market**: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. If the policies on import raw material subsidies are finalized, the policy negatives of US soybean oil will be exhausted, which will help reduce inventory [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The trend of the domestic soybean oil market depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade negotiation fails to remove the obstacles for Chinese enterprises to purchase US soybeans, the upward trend of the domestic soybean oil market after the National Day is expected to be more obvious [5]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are provided. The price spreads and changes of some varieties are also given [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Charts show the estimated production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in September, the inventory level of Indonesian palm oil, the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, Malaysia's palm oil export volume, the POGO price spread, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, India's palm oil import profit, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, and the cumulative import volume of palm oil and four major oils in the EU [10][11][13][14].