Agricultural Products - The CBOT soybean prices reached a six-month high due to market expectations of China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, with 84% of soybeans and 72% of corn harvested as of now [1] - Domestic protein meal prices showed volatility and did not follow the upward trend of soybeans, with a slight decrease in the main contract [1] Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, hitting a four-week low, influenced by weak surrounding markets and a rising Malaysian ringgit [2] - Domestic oil prices showed mixed results, with soybean and rapeseed oil slightly increasing while palm oil experienced a small decline [2] - High oil inventory levels and relaxed supply conditions are contributing to a weak basis in the market [2] Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract showed a strong upward trend, with spot prices in various regions increasing, such as Heilongjiang at 12.32 CNY/kg, up 0.27 CNY/kg from the previous day [3] - The overall pig price stabilized in mid-October, supported by increased market activity and a tightening supply of larger pigs [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture indicated a decrease in pork imports and an increase in consumption, predicting a rebound in live pig and pork prices in Q4 [3] Eggs - Egg futures continued to rebound, with the main contract closing up 1.56% at 3134 CNY/500kg, supported by rising spot prices in major production areas [4] - The market shows optimistic expectations for future supply improvements, although there is still pressure from excess production capacity [4] Corn - The main corn futures contract opened lower and continued to decline, recovering the price gains from the previous week due to increased new grain supply [5][6] - Prices in the Northeast region adjusted slightly, with varying adjustments based on local supply and processing demand [5][6] - The market remains under pressure from new grain supplies, particularly in North China, where high-quality grain is favored [6]

李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 14 日 棕榈油：产地累库预期，回调压力逐步消化 豆油：美豆暂获支撑，区间震荡 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：基本面驱动暂时充分，盘面正在逐步消化产地累库预期导致的回调压力。本周跟随美豆油及 国内商品情绪波动为主，棕榈油 01 合约周跌 1.69%。 豆油：市场交易四季度缺豆情形暂缓，油脂板块高位震荡整理，豆油上涨动能不足，01 合约周跌 0.93%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：本周欧美汽柴油裂解持续处于同比高位，欧洲 SAF 及对中国 UCO 的采购价格还在持续飙升中， 马来 UCO FOB 与 CPO FOB 价差继续扩大，欧洲需求支撑暂未有结束迹象。产地基本面上，8 月马来需求结 构与市场预估存在差别，但是库存符合预估范围，报告总体中性。9 月降雨增加或使全月产量持平或转降， 仍预估在 180-185 万吨区间，8 月有可能成为今年产量高点，全年维持 1940 万吨产量判断。9 月马来出 口量几乎肯定会从印尼夺回更多份额，但印度的采购放缓，其它地区自 7 月开始表现出一定 ...