Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices, which confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The report is waiting for the spot price verification at the end of the month. Recently, the macro - sentiment is strong, and the implementation of policies should be monitored. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,890 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 230 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,110 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 290 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 60,032 lots, an increase of 31,070 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,259 lots, an increase of 600 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 25,211 lots, an increase of 16,970 lots, and an open interest of 44,029 lots, an increase of 126 lots; the Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 24,904 lots, an increase of 19,029 lots, and an open interest of 29,487 lots, an increase of 5,388 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The Pig 2509 basis is 115 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 basis is 370 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 240 yuan/ton; the Pig 9 - 11 spread is 495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. The classification of strength includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Confirmation" and was released on July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, Email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, Email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,490 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: LH2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan/ton; LH2511 is 13,635 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton; LH2601 is 13,820 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: LH2509 trading volume is 28,962 lots, an increase of 904 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 63,659 lots, a decrease of 1,152 lots; LH2511 trading volume is 8,241 lots, an increase of 2,423 lots, and open interest is 43,903 lots, a decrease of 271 lots; LH2601 trading volume is 5,875 lots, an increase of 2,340 lots, and open interest is 24,099 lots, an increase of 859 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 295 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton; LH2511 basis is 795 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; LH2601 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LH9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; LH11 - 1 spread is -185 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 30 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects price increases from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. Wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends recently [5] - In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]