Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Platinum has reversed its situation and rebounded, while palladium has also rebounded upwards [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 493.10 with a -0.88% change. The gold exchange platinum price was 495.06 with a 1.10% increase. The New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1962.30 with a 3.67% increase. The London spot platinum (previous day) was 1947.60 with a 2.56% increase. The palladium futures 2606 price was 361.40 with a 1.15% increase. The New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1483.50 with a 4.95% increase, and the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1482.50 with a 5.33% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: For Guangzhou platinum (kg), the trading volume was 22,242, an increase of 7,748 from the previous day, and the position was 88. For NYMEX platinum (kg), the trading volume was 19,343, a decrease of 4,280 from the previous day, and the position was 75,331, an increase of 2,816. For Guangzhou palladium (kg), the trading volume was 2,900, an increase of 143, and the position was 8,769, an increase of 40. For NYMEX palladium (kg), the trading volume was 12,507, an increase of 858, and the position was 46,030, a decrease of 171 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,045,275, a decrease of 1,047. Palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,041,712, a decrease of 6,485. The inventory of Guangzhou platinum (kg) was 541,249, and NYMEX platinum (ounces, previous day) decreased by 12,992. The inventory of Guangzhou palladium (kg) was not provided, and NYMEX palladium (ounces, previous day) was 247,765, a decrease of 8 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of PT9995 to PT2606 was 1.96, a decrease of 7.85 from the previous day. The spread of Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract was 3.00. The spread of Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract was 2.70, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous day [2]. - **Macro - related Data**: The dollar index was 99.86 with a -0.32% change. The dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.91 with a -0.05% change, and the dollar - to - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.92 with a 0.22% change. The dollar - to - RMB (6M forward) was 6.80 with a -0.20% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook [4]. - **Other News**: OPEC's March production hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic. The US customs is promoting a new tariff refund system with a processing time of up to 45 days. Warren Buffett said the stock market valuation is not attractive, he sold Apple too early, and his current cash and equivalents are about $350 billion. The CFTC is focused on combating insider trading in the prediction market and market manipulation in the energy market. There are multiple developments in the Iran situation, including statements from the Iranian president, military deployments, and threats of attacks [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 contracts are bullish, with an overall view of being bullish in a volatile manner [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1] - **Medium - term view**: Volatile [1][5] - **Intraday view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1][5] - **Core logic**: The US is trying to ease financial market tensions and boost risk appetite. There are ongoing military conflicts between the US and Iran, and the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract maintained a bullish - in - volatile trend on Tuesday night, and is expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1][7] - **Intraday view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1][7] - **Core logic**: The sharp rise of synthetic rubber futures is driven by the continuous increase in the price of upstream raw material butadiene. Geopolitical disturbances in Northeast Asia and the concentrated reduction of cracking units in Japan and South Korea have tightened the supply of butadiene, and the inventory at East China ports has been decreasing. The strong rise in the raw material end has been directly transmitted to the synthetic rubber futures market. The synthetic rubber futures maintained a bullish - in - volatile trend on Tuesday night and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures may stop falling and rebound following the US soybean futures price, and the market focus will shift to the spring sowing weather theme [5]. - The short - term price of palm oil futures will follow the external market to strengthen, but its trend is weaker than that of the international market [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: stop falling and rebound; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: On March 31, the USDA report showed that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 was 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 85.549 million acres, which drove speculative funds to enter the market to go long. The quarterly inventory report showed that the US soybean inventory on March 1 was 2.105 billion bushels, higher than the same period last year and market expectations, indicating an overall abundant supply. The lower - than - expected planting area and cost structure changes support the short - term strengthening of US soybeans, but high inventory and the global supply - abundant pattern limit the upside space. The US soybean futures price oscillating strongly provides import cost support for the domestic soybean market [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: follow the external market to strengthen; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks have pushed up crude oil prices, providing cost support and financial attribute premium for palm oil. The expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the optimistic outlook of the US Renewable Fuel Standard constitute long - term demand benefits, boosting market sentiment. However, the domestic fundamentals form a significant drag. Although the arrival volume of palm oil has decreased, its commercial inventory has reached a record high in the same period. High spot prices have suppressed the demand of terminal catering and food processing, and market transactions have been light [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue its short - term oscillatory trend, with a focus on demand performance. The current reality is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to oscillate [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the螺纹2605 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is slightly bullish, with an overall view of narrow - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current reality is weakly stable, leading to the continuation of the steel price's oscillatory trend [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both supply and demand of rebar. Construction steel mill production is weakly stable, and rebar output has slightly decreased. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the supply contraction is not continuous, and the positive effect is limited. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to improve seasonally, with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand. But other high - frequency indicators perform mediocrely, and the downstream industries are weakly stable. The quality of the peak - season demand needs to be tracked. Currently, the energy logic is weakening, and the steel price is oscillating downward. In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar are marginally improving, and there is cost support [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in April 2026, the total domestic asphalt production was 1527,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 764,000 tons (33.3%). The sample capacity utilization rate was 20.4338%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 19.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 5.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 was 3.1047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 14%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 9.00 percentage points [7]. - On the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 497.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 69.70%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 844.9771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.86%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [7]. - The basis on March 30 showed that the Shandong spot price was 4420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 93 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory was 1214,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%; the in - plant inventory was 757,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 590,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline, which is bullish [7]. - The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the price of the 06 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [7]. - The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. - It is expected that the refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to decline. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2606 fluctuating in the range of 4387 - 4639 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery is weak on the demand side [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In April 2026, domestic asphalt production decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is below the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [7]. - Cost: The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the price in the short term [7]. - Basis: The spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory accumulates, while in - plant and port inventories decline, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 06 contract price is above MA20, which is bullish [7]. - Main Positions: Net long with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. - Expectation: The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2606 in the range of 4387 - 4639 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The report provides the price changes of different contracts of asphalt futures, including the current value, previous value, change, and change rate. For example, the 01 contract price increased from 3830 to 3893, with a change rate of 1.64% [14]. - **Basis and Spread Analysis**: It shows the basis of different contracts and some inter - month spreads, such as the 3 - 6, 3 - 9, 6 - 9, etc. spreads, and their changes [14]. - **Charts**: There are charts showing the basis trends in Shandong and East China, the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [18][23][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - There is a chart showing the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Charts show the asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [37][40]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: There is a chart of the weekly shipment volume [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: A chart shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [47]. - **Production**: Charts display the weekly and monthly production [50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: A chart shows the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trends [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: A chart shows the local refinery asphalt production [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: A chart shows the weekly capacity utilization rate [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: A chart shows the maintenance loss estimation trend [62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: A chart shows the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) [65]. - **Social and In - plant Inventories**: Charts show the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) [69]. - **In - plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: A chart shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio [72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: Charts show the asphalt export and import trends and the South Korean asphalt import price spread trend [75][78]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: A chart shows the petroleum coke production [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: A chart shows the apparent consumption [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: Charts show the downstream demand trends, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours) [87][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: Charts show the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率) [96][99][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: A chart shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE supply contraction continues with structural differentiation, and PP supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April [1]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, affecting the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to strengthen raw materials like naphtha and raise PE costs. For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support and high PDH maintenance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures (L2605)**: Yesterday's closing price was 8804, with a daily decline of 0.72%, trading volume of 1,267,301, and a decrease of 2,555 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was -204, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 120. Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8,600, 8,850, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **PP Futures (PP2605)**: Yesterday's closing price was 9269, with a daily decline of 0.47%, trading volume of 1,402,203, and a decrease of 19,730 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was -119, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 338. Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,100, 9,150, and 9,430 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Polyolefin plastic operating rate remains at 74%. PP operating rate has dropped to 66%, with Yangzi, Jingbo, and Lanzhou Petrochemical undergoing maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng and Zhongjing having maintenance plans in April, which may cause the operating rate to drop below 65%. PE grades show spot differentiation, with non - standard prices being stronger. As the futures price falls, the basis strengthens slightly. The polyolefin export window remains open, and the delivery window is available, but warehouse space is difficult to secure and upstream pre - sales arrivals are slow [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: Geopolitical tensions lead to higher costs. After the holiday, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the operating rate of packaging film has increased, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the number of maintenance and production reduction plans is expected to increase in April, resulting in a decline in standard product production and inventory reduction [2]. - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support and high PDH maintenance. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. On the demand side, downstream industries have resumed work, and demand has improved month - on - month. PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in cracking and PDH plants [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 1 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the current overall situation remains weak and under pressure. Although the supply - side pressure has eased compared to last week, it is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The demand side is persistently weak, with increased cold - repairs in downstream float glass and slow recovery in real - estate completion data. The inventory, although slightly reduced, is still at a historical high above 1.8 million tons. In the short term, due to the impact of the ongoing geopolitical war, there is a moderate bullish sentiment, but in the long - term, there is significant downward price pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - The glass futures market is in a difficult - to - move up or down oscillating pattern. The upper price limit is due to high inventory and production restart expectations, while the lower limit is supported by cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations. The cold - repair of production lines cannot fundamentally improve the supply situation, and inventory is still increasing, indicating a slow recovery in seasonal demand. In the short term, coal and natural gas price fluctuations have a significant impact on glass prices, and in the long - term, the upward price movement depends on raw material cost support and property sales data. Currently, the market is in a traditional off - season, and due to geopolitical influence, there is a short - term opportunity to go long, but the upside is limited [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash**: On March 30, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 continued to decline, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.71%, with an increase of 28,810 lots in positions. The fundamental situation shows a weak market. The supply - side pressure has eased but is still high, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is blocked. In the short term, there is a bullish sentiment due to geopolitical factors, but in the long - term, shorting on rallies is recommended [7][8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price is in an oscillating pattern. The upper price limit is restricted by high inventory and production restart expectations, and the lower limit is supported by cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations. The cold - repair of production lines cannot improve the supply situation, and inventory is increasing, indicating slow demand recovery. In the short term, raw material price fluctuations have a significant impact, and in the long - term, the upward movement depends on raw material cost support and property sales data. Short - term long - positions can be considered, but the upside is limited [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][13][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX, PTA, and MEG are in a short - term volatile market, and their medium - term trends are still strong. The supply of MEG is tight, and its medium - term trend is also strong [2] - For PX, due to the contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the unilateral price is volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX. When the 5 - 9 spread is below 100 yuan/ton, consider positive arbitrage [8] - For PTA, with the game between cost and demand, it is not advisable to chase high prices. Instead, buy on dips. The unilateral price is volatile and strong. When the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton, maintain positive arbitrage. It is recommended to go long on EB and short on PTA [9] - For MEG, due to the direct lack of supply, the trend is relatively strong. The unilateral price is still strong, and the 5 - 9 spread maintains positive arbitrage [9] Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price Information**: The PX futures' yesterday's closing price was 9840, with a decline of 76 and a drop - rate of 0.77%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 242, up 32 from the previous day. The PX CFR China's yesterday's price was 1275.67 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread's yesterday's price was 120.67, down 14.5 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: A 100 - million - ton PX device in East China is expected to stop for maintenance tomorrow as planned and restart in early May. Another 70 - million - ton PX device's maintenance plan has been postponed, and the specific time is to be followed up [5] - **Market Situation**: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On March 30, the PX price increased, with three May Asian spot orders成交 at 1281, 1282, and 1282 respectively. The PX valuation on March 30 was 1276 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars from last Friday [4] PTA - **Price Information**: The PTA futures' yesterday's closing price was 6768, with a decline of 108 and a drop - rate of 1.57%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 88, down 32 from the previous day. The PTA's East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton yesterday, up 100 yuan from the previous day. The PTA processing fee's yesterday's price was 133.46, up 11.12 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: A 70 - million - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted last weekend [5] - **Market Situation**: The PTA supply is sufficient, with the operating rate rising to around 82%. The downstream polyester operating rate has dropped to 86.9%. In the short term, the oversupply will affect the April contract and the early - April trend. However, in April, the PTA inventory will decline rapidly due to the reduction of PX supply [9] MEG - **Price Information**: The MEG futures' yesterday's closing price was 5359, with an increase of 80 and a rise - rate of 1.52%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 125, down 21 from the previous day. The MEG spot price was 5429 yesterday, up 259 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: On March 30, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.075 billion tons, up 360,000 tons from the previous period. A 60 - million - ton unit of a 1.8 - billion - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene - glycol device in Shaanxi restarted and produced normally recently, and the second 60 - million - ton unit is planned to stop for maintenance on April 15 for about 20 days [5][6] - **Market Situation**: The ethylene - glycol supply will decrease significantly in April. The import volume will shrink, and the export from China will increase. The domestic ethylene - glycol device operating rate has dropped from 80% before the holiday to around 66%, and the coal - based devices are in the spring - maintenance stage, so the port inventory is expected to be depleted faster [9] Polyester - **Device Conditions**: The maintenance plan of a 30 - million - ton polyester device in a factory in Fujian was cancelled [6] - **Market Situation**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 30 were generally weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 20% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories were also weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 43% by 3 pm. However, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were strong over the weekend, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 200% [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of iron ore is supported by the improvement in demand after the Two Sessions, a slight increase in molten iron production, and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iran conflict. However, the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background restricts the upward movement of prices. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: On March 27, 2026, for iron ore futures, i2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, i2609 closed at 790 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan [2] - **Spot**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 ( - 8) yuan/ton, the standard - equivalent (warehouse) price was 815 yuan, and the best - deliverable Newman powder's warehouse - receipt equivalent (warehouse) price was 789 yuan [2] - **Contract Price Changes**: For contract 12701, the price on March 27, 2026, was 769.5, up 2.0 from March 26; for 12605, it was 812.0, down 5.0; for 12609, it was 788.0, up 0.5 [1] 3.2 Inventory and Shipping Data - **Inventory**: On March 27, 2026, the total iron ore inventory was 17000 (down 98 from March 20), Australian ore inventory was 8315 (down 8), Brazilian ore inventory was 5030 (down 44), and trader inventory was 11285 (down 53) [1] - **Shipping**: Australian shipments to the world on March 20 were 2458 (up 74 from March 13), Brazilian shipments were 572 (down 23), and Australian shipments were 1909 (up 96) [1] 3.3 Important News - On March 27, the US and Israel attacked Iranian steel plants, expected to create a rigid supply gap of 500 - 550 tons/year, with the most prominent gaps in plates, billets, and long - products [2] - On March 27, the national main - port iron ore trading volume was 66.50 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 9.44 tons, a 5.9% increase [2] - Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03% (up 1.25 percentage points), the steel - mill profitability rate was 43.29% (up 0.87 percentage points), and the daily average molten iron output was 231.09 tons (up 2.94 tons) [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 58.87% (up 2.3 percentage points from the previous week and 3.87 percentage points from the same period last year), and the average operating rate was 68.82% (up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.51 percentage points from the same period last year) [2] - On March 28, the single - day online signing volume of second - hand houses (including commercial properties) in Shanghai reached 1585 units, setting a new high in the past 5 years [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to decline due to the easing expectation of negotiations [2][4]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][8]. - The silicon ferroalloy spot performance is dull due to sector sentiment disturbances, while the manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment due to energy information disturbances [2][12]. - The first - round price increase of coke this week is expected to be implemented, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - The log market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with the positive spread widening [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 812.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.61%. The open interest decreased by 20,782 to 387,244 hands [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore and most domestic ore prices declined, with some domestic ore prices remaining stable [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: Most basis and spreads decreased [4]. - **News**: Previous structural contradictions drove the iron ore price up, but recent negotiation easing expectations led to a weakening of the upward momentum [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased, with open interest also decreasing [8]. - **Spot Price**: Some spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, while some remained stable. The billet price remained unchanged [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of rebar increased, and that of hot - rolled coil also increased. Some spreads changed [8]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the week of March 26. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased in early March, and production data showed a decline [9][10] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon - **Futures Data**: The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon futures contracts changed, with trading volume and open interest varying [12]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of silicon ferroalloy decreased, and the price of manganese ore decreased. The price of silicon manganese increased [12]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon changed [12]. - **News**: There were price quotes, inventory updates, and production and procurement news in the ferroalloy market [12][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [16]. - **Spot Price**: Some coking coal and coke prices remained stable, while some decreased [16]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke changed [16]. - **News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal auction showed certain characteristics [16] Log - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed, with different trends for different contracts [20]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of most log and wood square products remained stable, with only slight changes in a few prices [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of log futures changed [20]. - **News**: The government work report aimed at stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms, with GDP growth target adjustment and an increase in policy - based financial tools [22]