新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 氧化铝现货价格重心下移 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20780元/吨，较上一交易日变化70元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20630元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-130元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20720元/吨，较上一交易日变化70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-35元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-25日沪铝主力合约开于20625元/吨，收于20770元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，最 高价达20800元/吨，最低价达到20620元/吨。全天交易日成交146160手，全天交易日持仓248343手。 库存方面，截止2025-08-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.6万吨，较上一期变化2.0吨，仓单库存56670 吨，较上一交易日变化-474吨，LME铝库存478725吨，较上一交易日变化-800吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3215元/吨，山东价格录得3190元/吨，河南价格录得 3215元/吨，广西价 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-20 多空博弈激烈，沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱 镍品种 2025-08-19日沪镍主力合约2509开于120490元/吨，收于120330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.37%，当日成交量 为63677手，持仓量为55967手。 期货方面：沪镍主力即将更换至2510合约，今日主力合约夜盘开盘后快速冲高至 121,450 元 / 吨，但未能站稳高 位，随后回落至 120,140 元 / 吨，最终收于 120,340 元 / 吨，较前日结算价下跌 350 元，跌幅 0.29%。成交量 78,139 手，持仓量 62,507 手，显示夜盘交易活跃度较高，但持仓量未显著增加，多空资金博弈后选择离场。日盘延续弱 势，开盘价 120,490 元，最高价 120,950 元，最低价 120,050 元，最终收于 120,330 元，下跌 450 元，跌幅 0.37%。 成交量 63,677 手，持仓量减少至 55,967 手，较夜盘减少 6,540 手，资金离场迹象明显。8 月 18 日 LME 镍价收 于 15,095 美元 / 吨，下跌 0.66%，8 月 19 日进一步跌至 15, ...

Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory has stabilized, ending a continuous accumulation trend since early May, with supply tightness persisting in the market [1] Supply and Inventory - As of August 7, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in major consumption areas was 33,400 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has not changed significantly, and the supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, leading to poor profit margins for aluminum alloy manufacturers [1] - On August 13, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 31,611 tons, an increase of 138 tons from the previous trading day and an increase of 393 tons from August 6 [1] Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics - According to Yide Futures, the downstream aluminum alloy market is still in a consumption off-season, but financial demand is increasing, indicating a "not-so-weak" off-season; alloy manufacturers are in a profitable situation [2] - Guoxin Futures notes that aluminum alloy prices are running strong alongside Shanghai aluminum, with scrap aluminum prices rising to high levels, which increases the cost of aluminum alloys and supports bottom price levels [2] - The pressure from the consumption off-season continues to suppress both spot and futures prices of aluminum alloys, with inventory data showing a state of accumulation and remaining at historically high levels [2]

作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 库存稳步增长，铜铝振荡整理 ——铜铝周报2025.08.11 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内7月出口增速继续超出预期，关注政策端变化；美 国关税政策逐步落地，对经济影响有待观察；美联储人事变动博弈， 市场对年内降息预期升温。 | 沪铜2509合约 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：供应端高端货源紧缺，进口低价货源补充有限，区域流 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 通不均。需求端受高铜价抑制，下游采购偏谨慎。库存方面，截至8 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 月7日，全国主流地区铜库存上升至13.20万吨。 | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 3、整体逻辑：美国对铜加征关税落地，高库存对铜价压力逐步显现， | 线。 | | | | 建议等待价格逐步企稳。 | | | 本期观点 电子邮箱：liupy_q ...

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be at a stage where supply remains high but growth slows, and demand is weak due to the off - season, with slightly accumulated inventory, and the long - term outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization [6]. - Suggest light - position oscillating trading for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum and light - position short - selling trading for the main contract of Alumina when prices are high, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 1.2%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated downward, with a weekly change of - 7.76%, closing at 3,162 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina is expected to have a slowdown in supply growth and stable demand. Electrolytic aluminum supply will remain high but with a slowdown in growth, and demand will be weak due to the off - season [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position oscillating trading for Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and light - position short - selling trading for Alumina's main contract when prices are high, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from July 25. Alumina's futures price was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 213 yuan/ton (- 6.18%). Cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 19,920 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton (- 1.07%) [11][14]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's position was 577,815 lots, down 77,532 lots (- 11.83%) from July 25. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 8,454 lots [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,810 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from July 25. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,890 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.62%); in Shanxi, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%); in Guiyang, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%). The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton (- 0.99%). The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,490 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton (- 1.49%), with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][29][32]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 461,025 tons, up 12,925 tons (2.88%); as of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons (1.5%); domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 487,000 tons, up 25,000 tons (5.41%). As of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 48,658 tons, down 6,017 tons (- 11.01%); LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 447,000 tons, up 14,050 tons (3.25%) [36]. - **Bauxite**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.4 million tons, up 580,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,200 tons, down 77.37% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.159 million tons, up 0.05% month - on - month and 1.75% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.207 million tons, up 0.01% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year; the operating rate was 97.68%, up 0.03% from last month and down 1.12% from the same period last year [55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import of aluminum products was 300,000 tons, up 24.1% year - on - year; the export was 490,000 tons, down 19.8% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1.98 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 2.92 million tons, down 8% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 618,900 tons, up 0.48 month - on - month and 5.49% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, down 0.87% month - on - month and up 19.22% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 9.097 million tons. In June 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, down 12.26% year - on - year; the export was 25,800 tons, up 23.79% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 542,200 tons, down 11.53% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 120,300 tons, up 3.06% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment was up 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482 units, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105 units, up 11.43% year - on - year [71]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight oscillating decline of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the given text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market's surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the continuous recovery of TC and good returns from by - products such as sulfuric acid, smelters' production enthusiasm is high. However, high zinc prices and the consumption off - season suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory continues to accumulate, with strong upward pressure. It is expected that zinc prices may weaken and consolidate in the short term, operating in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 2.02% to 22,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 2.65% to 22,885 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.18% to 2,829 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Industry Conditions**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve; galvanizing start - up increased slightly but the terminal remained weak; die - casting zinc alloy start - up was cautious due to the off - season; zinc oxide start - up declined due to weak demand; zinc ingot social inventory continued to accumulate [4][15][45]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Raw Material End - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of July 25, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total inventory of 7 ports was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of July 24, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,448 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [25]. - **TC Changes**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import index rose to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton [28]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Smelter Production**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve. As of July 24, the production profit of refining zinc enterprises was - 138 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of July 25, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 Galvanizing - **Start - up Rate**: The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.30 percentage points to 59.42%. The good trend of black metal prices and traders' continuous replenishment drove the recovery of galvanizing start - up. However, orders for guardrails, lamp posts, and photovoltaic brackets remained weak [49]. - **Inventory Changes**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as high zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Finished product inventory decreased as enterprises were pessimistic about the future and consumed inventory for profit realization [52]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price Changes**: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy rose 1.96% to 23,395 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy rose 1.92% to 23,945 yuan/ton [58]. - **Start - up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 0.92 percentage points to 51.03%. Due to the consumption off - season, enterprise production declined, and the start - up rate was expected to continue to decline [61]. - **Inventory Changes**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to weak purchasing enthusiasm at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased as the shipment rhythm slowed down [64]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price Changes**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% rose 1.40% to 21,700 yuan/ton [68]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc oxide enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 55.99%. Weak terminal demand and the off - season led to a general performance of orders [71]. - **Inventory Changes**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as they mainly made rigid purchases at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased due to weak terminal demand [74]. 4. Inventory Analysis - **Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 90,200 tons, showing an increase. The high zinc price at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [79]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE inventory was 59,400 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 115,800 tons, showing a decrease [82]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons [88].