Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern remaining. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential nickel price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is in the consumption off - season, with inventory starting to accumulate and the cost center shifting downwards. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Directory Summaries Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2512 opened at 119,000 yuan/ton and closed at 118,930 yuan/ton, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,848 (-17,400) lots, and the open interest was 112,711 (-4,118) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern with shrinking volume and reducing positions, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Due to weak fundamentals, the rebound momentum was weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, some terminals in the Surigao mining area were still recovering from typhoon weather, and the shipping efficiency was delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron decreased, and iron plants continued to lower their psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium was +26. The Indonesian government announced a 2026 RKAB quota of 3.19 billion tons, but the actual situation depends on next year's policy changes [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The enthusiasm for spot inquiries improved, and downstream buyers made on - demand purchases. The spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 3,800 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant volume was 32,694 (870) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,970 (-144) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The inventory is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential price rebounds. For single - side trading, range - bound operations are recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,470 yuan/ton and closed at 12,475 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,571 (+32,719) lots, and the open interest was 150,646 (-4,171) lots. It showed a narrow - range downward oscillation, similar to the trend of SHFE nickel. Entering the consumption off - season, the stainless - steel inventory showed a slight accumulation trend this week, and the futures market was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained in a wait - and - see state, and the spot trading was light, with on - demand purchases as the main mode. Affected by the downward shift of the cost center and trading conditions, the spot price continued to explore the bottom. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (-75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,800 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 290 - 590 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 907.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to the arrival of the consumption off - season, inventory accumulation, and the downward shift of the cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a low-level fluctuation as the consumption season enters a downturn, with weak fundamentals and no significant driving factors for price increases [1][2]. Supply - The operating rate of PVC production enterprises is at 80.75%, an increase of 2.49% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method operates at 81.21%, up 3.79% month-on-month and 2.64% year-on-year, while the ethylene method is at 79.69%, down 0.51% month-on-month but up 3.03% year-on-year [1]. Demand - The operating rate for PVC pipe enterprises is 39.4%, down 6.19% month-on-month but up 4.21% year-on-year. PVC profile enterprises have an operating rate of 37.61%, down 0.58% month-on-month and 3.93% year-on-year. PVC film enterprises maintain an operating rate of 71.79%, unchanged month-on-month and up 5.06% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory of PVC has increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons month-on-month, and is up 26.42% year-on-year. In East China, inventory is at 98580 tons, up 1.46% month-on-month and 27.87% year-on-year. In South China, inventory is at 5580 tons, down 4.39% month-on-month but up 5.34% year-on-year [1]. Cost - The cost of PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is 5158 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month-on-month. The cost for the ethylene method is 5264 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Profit - The gross profit for PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is -769 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton month-on-month. For the ethylene method, the gross profit is -465 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month [2]. Technical Analysis - The V2601 futures contract showed narrow fluctuations with a weekly high of 4702 yuan/ton and a low of 4600 yuan/ton. The Bollinger Bands indicator is expanding, and the futures are trading in a bearish consolidation state with the RSI indicator between 20 and 50 [2]. Conclusion - Overall, the supply remains ample with increased production rates, while demand is weak as the PVC consumption enters a low season. Inventory levels are rising, indicating significant de-stocking pressure. The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations without clear driving forces for price increases [2].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - International ICE raw sugar rose to 14.26 cents/pound due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and high domestic prices in India suppressing exports, but there is a long - term pressure of a 2.8 million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, new sugar quotes are firm and old sugar inventory clearance support the futures prices, but the expected increase in production, off - season consumption, and sufficient supply limit the upside. The market is watching the breakthrough of the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5,480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly decrease of 0.02%; SR03 at 5,442 yuan/ton (0.18% daily, - 0.24% weekly); SR05 at 5,411 yuan/ton (0.11% daily, - 0.37% weekly); SR07 at 5,410 yuan/ton (0.13% daily, - 0.4% weekly); SR09 at 5,404 yuan/ton (0.02% daily, - 0.57% weekly); SR11 at 5,470 yuan/ton (1.11% daily, 1.03% weekly); SB at 14.26 cents/pound (0.92% daily, 0.35% weekly); W at 409.3 (0.84% daily, 0.74% weekly) [4]. - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70 (up 10 daily, 4 weekly); SR05 - 09 was 2 (up 3 daily, 3 weekly); SR09 - 01 was - 72 (down 13 daily, 7 weekly); SR01 - 03 was 43 (up 6 daily, 4 weekly); SR03 - 05 was 27 (up 4 daily, 0 weekly); SR05 - 07 was 2 (0 daily, down 2 weekly); SR07 - 09 was 0 (up 3 daily, 5 weekly); SR09 - 11 was - 7 (down 5 daily, 71 weekly); SR11 - 01 was - 65 (down 8 daily, 64 weekly) [4]. Basis - Nanning - SR01 basis was 285 (down 18 daily, up 34 weekly); Nanning - SR03 was 328 (down 12 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR05 was 355 (down 8 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR07 was 357 (down 8 daily, up 36 weekly); Nanning - SR09 was 357 (down 5 daily, up 41 weekly); Nanning - SR11 was 350 (down 10 daily, down 30 weekly). Kunming - SR01 basis was 175 (down 18 daily, down 21 weekly); Kunming - SR03 was 218 (down 12 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR05 was 245 (down 8 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR07 was 247 (down 8 daily, down 19 weekly); Kunming - SR09 was 247 (down 5 daily, down 14 weekly); Kunming - SR11 was 240 (down 10 daily, down 85 weekly) [11]. Import Price and Profit - Brazilian import price: Quota - within was 3,947 yuan/ton (down 20 daily, 59 weekly), over - quota was 4,996 yuan/ton (down 26 daily, 77 weekly). Thai import price: Quota - within was 4,002 yuan/ton (down 21 daily, 69 weekly), over - quota was 5,068 yuan/ton (down 27 daily, 90 weekly) [14]. Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short - term, market sentiment may improve due to China - US trade consultations. The new cotton production in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton production is still high, and downstream demand is mediocre. Cotton prices lack upward momentum and may fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton and the subsequent new - season production determination [16]. Price and Spread - Cotton futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 09 at 13,735 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,855 yuan/ton (down 10, - 0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 was 0 (down 19,860, - 100%); Cotton yarn 09 was 0 (0, - 100%) [17]. - Cotton price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,282 (up 18); Cotton 01 - 05 was 0 (0); Cotton 05 - 09 was - 175 (0); Cotton 09 - 01 was 175 (0); Cotton - yarn spread was 6,280 (up 15); Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,872 (up 100); Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 616 (0) [17]. Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is coming to an end, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The cold - storage warehousing work is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, not all apples have been harvested, there are many buyers, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of warehousing progress, cold - storages in Gansu have started to sell, Shaanxi's warehousing is almost finished, and in Qixia's western towns in Shandong, a large amount of farmers' apples are still being warehoused [20]. Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9,229 yuan/ton (0.76% daily, 4.15% weekly); AP03 at 9,132 yuan/ton (0.43% daily, 2.0% weekly); AP04 at 9,211 yuan/ton (0.29% daily, 1.69% weekly); AP05 at 9,289 yuan/ton (0.31% daily, 1.94% weekly); AP10 at 8,389 yuan/ton (0.35% daily, 2.08% weekly); AP11 at 8,875 yuan/ton (0.85% daily, 1.22% weekly); AP12 at 9,179 yuan/ton (0.75% daily, 4.09% weekly) [21]. - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 101 (- 7.34% daily, - 72.70% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 900 (4.77% daily, - 18.18% weekly); AP10 - 01 was - 799 (6.53% daily, 9.45% weekly); Main - contract basis was - 352 (28.47% daily, 214.29% weekly) [22]. Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - New - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvest stage. The current new - season production is the core point of market game. There is indeed a production reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the reduction amplitude is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of production are prone to偏差. In the short - term, red date prices fluctuate greatly under capital game. With the start of the purchase season and production reduction, the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and purchase situation of new dates [26]. Price Spread - Red date futures spreads: Red date 01 - 05 spread, 05 - 09 spread, and 09 - 01 spread data are presented graphically, showing their historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [27][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs and the warming of macro - sentiment, but consumption demand has entered the off - season, and it is difficult for subsequent apparent demand to rebound. It is expected that the finished steel will fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The iron ore market is currently facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals" in the short term. With supply remaining high, port inventories accumulating, and demand suppressed by shrinking steel mill profits and falling hot metal production, coupled with the strong coking coal squeezing profits, the upside space for iron ore prices is limited [20]. - Policy on checking over - production and safety production restricts the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with the upcoming winter storage inventory transfer, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be relatively limited. If the supply of coking coal continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry is expected to move up [33]. - After the landing of macro - sentiment, ferroalloys return to their fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side below. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [49]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, with strong expectations for thermal coal and the current low and stable salt price (no trend - like increase has been seen), the valuation has no upward elasticity without production cuts. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and daily melting remains stable. The overall rigid demand for soda ash has stabilized, and the heavy soda balance remains in surplus. In September, soda ash exports exceeded 180,000 tons, which met expectations and continued to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash, but the cost support below limits the downward space [60]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment in the short term. However, with the arrival of the off - season and high inventory in the mid - stream, it is rationally considered that the impact is limited and needs to be observed. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract has reached a new high, and the game may continue until near the delivery. There are still structural contradictions in glass. Without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract glass will eventually decline, but the realization path may wait until near the delivery. In the long - term, there is cost support and policy expectations [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3079, 3145, and 3168 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3295, 3304, and 3324 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar and hot - rolled coil month - spreads remained mostly unchanged compared to October 31, 2025 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - On October 31, 2025, the rebar summary price in China was 3265 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou remained stable compared to October 30. The basis of different rebar contracts in Shanghai and Beijing also showed certain changes. For hot - rolled coil, prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang had some fluctuations, and the basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on November 3, 2025, remaining unchanged compared to October 31 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On November 3, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 782.5, 760.5, and 740.5 respectively, showing a decline compared to October 31. The basis of each contract increased, and the prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao such as PB powder, Carajás fines, and Super Special also had some changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data** - In late October 2025, daily average hot metal production decreased, 45 - port desilting volume increased, global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, 45 - port arrivals increased significantly, 45 - port inventory increased, 247 - steel mill inventory decreased, and the available days of 247 steel mills decreased [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian 5 remained unchanged, and the basis of different coking coal types and contracts had certain changes. For coke, the warehouse - receipt cost and basis of different regions and contracts also changed, and the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed some fluctuations [34][37]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - On November 3, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal such as Anze low - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 coal showed different trends, and the prices of different types of coke such as Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke also had some changes. The import profits of different countries' coking coal and the export profit of coke also changed [38][39]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On November 3, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia increased, and the month - spreads of different contracts showed certain changes. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai had some fluctuations, and the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and steam coal remained stable [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On October 31, 2025, the basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, and the month - spreads of different contracts changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou had some fluctuations, and the prices of raw materials such as ores and chemical coke remained stable [52]. Soda Ash - **Disk Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined compared to October 31. The month - spreads of different contracts also changed, and the basis of heavy soda in Shahe and Qinghai remained unchanged [61]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads** - The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions such as North China, South China, and East China remained stable on November 3, 2025, and the spreads between heavy and light soda ash in different regions also remained unchanged [62][64]. Glass - **Disk Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased compared to October 31. The month - spreads of different contracts changed, and the basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also had some changes [87]. - **Daily Sales and Production** - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different trends [88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Gold**: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - **Aluminum**: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - **Tin**: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - **Glass**: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - **Corn**: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Log Futures**: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - **PE**: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - **Short - Fiber**: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - **Styrene**: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [11] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [11] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of limited supply, high industry profits are not a factor restricting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term upward movement of aluminum prices requires resonance between a favorable macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks caused by inventory accumulation, macro factors, and tariff impacts. For alumina, the supply is in surplus, and the prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken. For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there are still opportunities for spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,625 yuan/ton, closed at 20,770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,800 yuan/ton and a low of 20,620 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,160 lots, and the open interest was 248,343 lots [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, with a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 56,670 tons, down 474 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 478,725 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [3] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On August 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,190 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,215 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,141 yuan/ton, closed at 3,184 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 1.34%. The high was 3,216 yuan/ton, and the low was 3,141 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 455,135 lots, and the open interest was 193,845 lots [3] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil cast aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical cast aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,300 tons [5] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, under the restricted supply, high profits are not a factor restricting price increases. In the short term, price increases need a favorable macro - environment and strong consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks [7] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, the ex - factory price in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton for 3,000 tons, and two transactions in Shanxi were both 3,180 yuan/ton, totaling 2,500 tons. The arrival price of a regular tender in Xinjiang for 10,000 tons was 3,450 - 3,460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week. On the cost side, due to the decline in rainy - season shipments, the supply in the bulk market has decreased, and the transaction center of the ore end is at 75 US dollars/ton, while the sea freight is 23.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The bauxite price is in a stable and volatile trend. The industry still has smelting profit, and the supply is in surplus. The prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken, the import window has opened compared with the southern domestic prices, and the situation of a weaker north and a stronger south in the domestic market remains. Currently, the futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot market transaction price [8][9] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 410 yuan/ton. Consumption is starting to transition from the off - season to the peak season, and both the spot market price spread and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal recovery trend. Spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract can still be concerned [10] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a decline, with tin futures showing a slight upward trend, indicating mixed signals in supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply Side - The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly decreased by 0.41% to 59.23%, although it has significantly rebounded from previous lows [1] - The mining sector remains tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected, and the issuance of mining licenses is expected to lead to a more relaxed supply situation in the future [1] Consumption Side - The photovoltaic industry is facing internal competition policies, leading to a lack of trading activity, while traditional consumption sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, making the overall outlook pessimistic [1] Inventory - Social inventory of tin ingots has slightly decreased, with a total of 10,392 tons reported as of August 15, 2025, an increase of 114 tons from the previous week [1] Market Outlook - The fundamental contradictions remain due to the slow recovery of raw material tin mines and recurring concerns over overseas liquidity [1] - The LME's low inventory reduction trend has not changed, and the recent strengthening of the LME's monthly structure indicates high concentration of warehouse receipts, supporting a slight upward shift in domestic and foreign tin prices [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that Shanghai tin will follow LME trends with a strong oscillation, with continued attention on the structure of LME tin and the concentration of warehouse receipts [1]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,490 yuan/ton and closed at 120,330 yuan/ton, a change of -0.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest was 55,967 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is about to switch to the 2510 contract. The night - session of the main contract opened and quickly rose to 121,450 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, then fell to 120,140 yuan/ton and finally closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 78,139 lots, and the open interest was 62,507 lots. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 120,490 yuan, a high of 120,950 yuan, a low of 120,050 yuan, and finally closed at 120,330 yuan, down 450 yuan or 0.37%. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest decreased to 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots from the night - session. On August 18, the LME nickel price closed at $15,095/ton, down 0.66%, and further fell to $15,110/ton on August 19, with the lowest intraday reaching $15,050, approaching the key support level of $15,000 [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price of nickel ore is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly $32, and the mine - end price has a slight upward trend. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, and iron plants are still in losses, so they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in August decreased slightly by $0.03 - $0.04; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second - phase of August to decline due to thin profits [3]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak during the day, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises did not change significantly. The spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were stable. Driven by the ex - factory price of Jinchuan resources, the premium increased slightly. Russian nickel resources have been replenished recently, and the spot shortage has eased, with the spot premium decreasing slightly. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 (-210.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,328 (-1,086) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, the nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment, but the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,885 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest was 133,538 lots [4]. - The night - session of the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,015 yuan/ton, then rose to 13,070 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, and finally closed at 13,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low was 12,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the bulls' tentative rebound was suppressed by the bears. The trading volume was 121,765 lots, and the open interest was 134,400 lots, a slight decrease from the previous day, showing that the long and short funds chose to wait and see after the game. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 13,000 yuan/ton, a high of 13,025 yuan/ton, a low of 12,855 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 12,885 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.07%. The price broke through the key support level of 12,900 yuan, triggering some stop - loss orders. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest decreased to 133,538 lots, a decrease of 862 lots from the night - session, showing obvious signs of capital leaving [5]. - In the spot market, affected by the sharp decline of the futures market, the price - holding sentiment of spot traders has weakened. Coupled with the continued weak trading in the previous days and the increasing pressure to sell at the end of the month, the quotes have loosened and declined slightly. However, affected by the market psychology of buying on rising and not on falling, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment has further intensified, and the trading situation has become even lighter. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,075 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,075 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 260 - 410 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 927.0 yuan/nickel point [6]. Strategy - Currently, it is still in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand, and the fundamentals have not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7].