Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are pressured by crude oil trends and may test the support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment, seeking support at 9,500 yuan, with a chance of a weak rebound but continued downward pressure [1]. - CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is favorable. In China, if the zero - tolerance policy for Brazilian soybeans is relaxed, soybean supply will increase, dragging down the spot basis [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy and the development of the Middle East conflict. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis fluctuates within 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by a stronger US dollar and inflation concerns. US cotton production is expected to be around 3.05 million tons. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 65 - 70 cents/pound. In China, the cotton price may also oscillate widely due to the balance of long - and short - term factors [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reach a five - month high, supported by energy prices. Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the preference for ethanol production. Indian sugar production is approaching the end of the season. Short - term raw sugar is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. In China, sugar imports in January - February exceed expectations. The spot market has weak sales but stable prices, and the futures market is strong but limited by weak production and sales in February and increased industrial inventory [4]. Red Dates - Affected by macro funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market rebounds slightly from the low - valuation range, but the upside is limited by weak market conditions. In the off - season, the consumption end is weak, inventory reduction is slow, and the number of futures warehouse receipts registered is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6]. Apples - The apple spot market shows a more obvious structural differentiation. Good - quality apples have a better trading atmosphere, while ordinary apples in Shandong have inventory pressure. The national apple cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [11]. Corn and Corn Starch - The supply and demand of corn in the Northeast and North China are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. The demand from deep - processing enterprises exists, but feed enterprises' demand for high - priced corn is average, and wheat substitution is increasing. Policy wheat auctions may squeeze corn demand. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [14]. Meal - The US soybean futures are oscillating around 1,160 cents, with mixed long - and short factors. The domestic soybean meal market has fully priced in concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The concern about delayed arrivals of Brazilian soybeans is easing, and the spot market is weak. Short - term inventory is expected to be tight, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [16]. Pigs - The futures and spot prices of pigs continue to decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The large number of pig sales, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. In the off - season, downstream procurement recovers slowly, and the increase in slaughter volume has limited impact. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage. The price may stop falling after breaking 10,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price is expected to continue to bottom out [18]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled chickens is high and shows a downward trend, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly but is still at a relatively low level. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure is not large this week. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, but the supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The terminal demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with decreases of 16.22%, 59.26%, and 9.24% respectively. The spot and futures prices of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 100% to 0 [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, while the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 33.33%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.07%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, while the valid forecast increased by 22.06% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The spreads between 3128B and futures contracts and between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% all increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, the bonded area inventory increased by 9.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 0.3%, the spinning enterprise's processing profit decreased by 4.8%, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 7.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textiles decreased by 82.9%, and the export volume of textile yarns and clothing decreased [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased by 0.44% and 0.40% respectively, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.90%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.77%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the valid forecast increased from 0 to 520 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales nationwide and in Guangxi decreased, the sugar sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased significantly [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, and the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads also increased. The open interest increased by 0.41%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the valid forecast increased by 45.98%, and the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 1.87% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.71%, the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.09%, the basis decreased by 6.35%, the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 4.25%, the open interest decreased by 10.12%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 6.26% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at some fruit wholesale markets increased [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 1.33%, the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.21%, the basis increased by 370.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 61.54%, the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit increased by 35.71%, the Brazilian CIF duty - paid price decreased by 0.76%, the import profit increased by 14.08%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 19.09%, the open interest decreased by 1.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 1.18%, the average price of corn starch decreased by 0.13%, the basis increased by 16.48%, the Weifang spot price decreased by 0.33%, the Changchun spot price remained unchanged, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 150.00%, the 05 spread between starch and corn decreased by 0.26%, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged, the open interest decreased by 2.06%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.90%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.73%, the basis decreased by 2.49%, the spot basis quote remained unchanged, the Brazilian May shipment basis import crushing profit decreased by 5.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.6% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.12%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.99%, the basis decreased by 2.43%, the Canadian July shipment basis import crushing profit increased by 400.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [16]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.83%, the basis increased by 9.76%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract 2 remained unchanged, the basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% [16]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the ratio of soybean to rapeseed meal in the spot market increased by 0.68%, the ratio of oil to meal in the main contract decreased by 0.14%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spreads in the spot market and 2605 contract remained basically unchanged [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 36.36%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.65%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 3.23%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 53.68%, the main contract open interest increased by 2.41%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in various regions decreased to different degrees, and the slaughter rate decreased by 0.47%, the white - strip price, piglet price, and sow price remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.05%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 5.13%, the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 19.72%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.73% [18]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 0.66% and 1.22% respectively, the basis increased by 27.56%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 18.35% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price increased by 2.86%, the culled - chicken price increased by 1.25%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.24%, and the breeding profit increased by 9.98% [20].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the outlooks are as follows: - Oils and fats: Oscillatory [7][8] - Protein meals: Oscillatory [9] - Corn: Oscillatory [10][11] - Hogs: Oscillatory and weakening [11] - Natural rubber: Oscillatory [12][14] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory and strengthening [15] - Cotton: Oscillatory and strengthening [16] - Sugar: Oscillatory [18] - Pulp: Oscillatory [20] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [20][22] - Logs: Oscillatory [23] Group 2: Core Views - The overall agricultural market is currently characterized by complex and diverse trends, with different commodities showing various price movements and supply - demand relationships. The market is significantly influenced by factors such as macroeconomics, geopolitics, and seasonal patterns. For example, the hog market is facing high supply and weak demand, while the oil and fat market is affected by geopolitical tensions and supply - demand dynamics in the international market. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Oils and fats continue to oscillate. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, affecting the cost of vegetable oils. Different types of oils have their own supply - demand situations. For example, palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in the first half of March, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [8]. Protein Meals - **View**: Trading is清淡, and the two major protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) oscillate in a narrow range. International factors such as inflation concerns in the US, geopolitical tensions, and the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest affect the price of soybeans, which in turn impacts protein meals. Domestically, the import cost has slightly decreased, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The spot market has light trading volume [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory [9]. Corn - **View**: The market maintains a tight balance, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is affected by factors such as farmers' selling rhythm and the increase in wheat supply. The demand from downstream enterprises is mainly for replenishment, and the market is in a state of game between supply and demand [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short - term. In the medium - term, it has a bullish tendency based on the annual supply - demand balance [11]. Hogs - **View**: Supply remains high, and hog prices continue to decline. In the short - term, supply exceeds demand due to high inventory and low consumption. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will continue until August 2026. In the long - term, hog prices may gradually pick up in the third quarter of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and weakening. It is recommended that the industrial sector consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year and anti - arbitrage strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The macro - environment is weak, and rubber prices continue to decline. The market is affected by the macro - economic downturn, the expected high yield in the Yunnan production area, and the decline in tire orders to the Middle East [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price is relatively firm. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a reduction in the supply of butadiene, driving up the price of synthetic rubber. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. The price will remain strong in the short - term if oil prices continue to rise [15]. Cotton - **View**: The macro - sentiment is bearish, and cotton prices continue to correct. The fundamentals are generally good, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upside is limited in the short - term [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a long - term buying strategy on dips [16]. Sugar - **View**: Short - term domestic and international sugar prices oscillate with oil prices. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, but oil price fluctuations may affect the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil, thereby influencing sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The domestic price range can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [18]. Pulp - **View**: Pulp shows signs of stabilizing after continuous decline. The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and low downstream demand. However, the cost provides a certain support [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and resistance at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [20]. Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates weakly. The market is generally stable, with some price increases. The paper mills have inventory pressure, and the demand from downstream printers is average. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20][22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [22]. Logs - **View**: Geopolitical factors increase the volatility of logs. The price is mainly driven by cost factors, such as the increase in freight and exchange rate. In the short - term, the futures price oscillates strongly, but in the medium - term, it may face pressure due to increased supply [23]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 830 yuan/cubic meter [23]. Group 4: Commodity Index Data - On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2569.19, with a change of - 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, with a change of - 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, with a change of + 0.39%. - The agricultural product index on March 19, 2026 was 968.39, with a daily change of - 0.19%, a 5 - day change of - 1.96%, a one - month change of + 4.04%, and a year - to - date change of + 3.79% [185][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production, low demand, and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - The iron ore market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise, the total production of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at a low level for the year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price oscillates at a low level, indicating strong support below [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of decline [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the production of electric - arc - furnace steel mills' rebar increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major varieties and rebar and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties, rebar, and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different degrees of changes [4]. - **Supply**: The shipping volume of Australian iron ore decreased, while that of Brazilian iron ore increased. The arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production increased, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [4]. 3.3 Industry Information - The PMI of the steel industry in February 2026 was 46.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, indicating that the operation of the steel industry slowed down in the short term due to the Spring Festival holiday. The supply and demand at both ends of steel contracted, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the prices of raw materials and steel were weak [7]. - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai regions lowered the prices of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on March 6, 2026 [8]. - As of the week ending March 4, the national building materials production increased, the total inventory increased, the national hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the total inventory increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Bullish**: Cotton (★★), indicating a relatively strong bullish view [1]. - **Bearish**: None explicitly marked as strongly bearish. - **Neutral or Mixed**: Bean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★), Palm oil (★), Soybean oil (★), Rapeseed oil (★), Red dates (★), and Live pigs (★★) with various degrees of neutral or mixed expectations [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: Expected to be bullish and volatile. The US biofuel production outlook is clear, and the US EPA is expected to finalize new biofuel blending mandates by the end of March. The US not raising tariffs on Chinese goods eases market concerns, leading to a rise in overnight US soybeans. Domestic bean meal opened slightly higher and closed up. Future attention should be paid to the yield and quality of South American soybeans [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Expected to be short - term volatile. Spot available supply is tight, and imported rapeseed meal is mostly quoted for the March - May far - month. The lack of immediate - delivery spot supply leads to light market trading. Low inventory restricts the downside space. With the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping final ruling on March 9 yet to be announced, rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of bean meal. Yesterday, the spot price of rapeseed meal fell significantly, dragging down the futures price [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to be in a range - bound consolidation. Malaysian palm oil export data this month is weak, and due to high domestic palm oil purchases in February, the price closed down and remained weak. However, the optimistic expectation of US bio - diesel and domestic far - month procurement demand may limit the downside space. Attention should be paid to the subsequent export and production data of the Malaysian market [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to be in a range - bound consolidation. The US EPA will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule is expected to be finalized by the end of March. US soybean oil prices rose. Domestic soybean oil showed resistance compared to other oils. Attention should be paid to the final content of the US bio - diesel policy [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. Currently in the traditional consumption off - season, downstream procurement willingness is low, and demand support is limited. The basis of rapeseed oil is expected to remain weakly volatile. Future attention should be paid to the basis performance, the rhythm of rapeseed arrivals, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [1]. - **Cotton**: Expected to be bullish and volatile. The USDA predicts a decrease in global cotton production in 2026/27, along with an oil price rebound and record - high US cotton export sales, leading to a significant rebound in US cotton prices. Although Trump's tariffs briefly suppressed US cotton, the market's assessment of the negative impact is lower than before. In the domestic market, the USDA also gives a preliminary production reduction expectation for the new year. After the holiday, driven by the rebound of foreign cotton and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption expectation, the price exceeded expectations. In the short term, there is a need to be vigilant about a certain correction risk, and the support of the gap should be noted. The long - term bullish view is maintained [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Expected to be under pressure. The overall market trading sentiment is cautious, and trading volume is weak. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern has become looser. In the short term, the futures price is expected to be suppressed by high inventory. Considering the low valuation, attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. In the medium term, depending on the inventory reduction situation from March to April, attention should be paid to whether there are opportunities for phased repair [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Expected to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand of the live pig market has returned to normal, and the spot market is expected to continue the weak pattern. On the supply side, due to the slow reduction of breeding sows, the pig supply base remains high. After the Spring Festival, the market enters the traditional consumption off - season, and the slaughter end is expected to face significant price pressure. Near - month contracts may still enter the delivery month at a discount, and the futures price is expected to remain under pressure. Medium - and long - term contracts are restricted by the slow reduction of breeding sows, and the industry has not experienced continuous deep losses recently, so there is still a lack of upward momentum. However, considering the actual reduction in supply, if the far - month contracts are significantly pulled down by the spot price, phased long positions can be considered [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2834 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3190.57 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.06%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of different contracts also changed [2]. - **Industry News**: Crop experts lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by 1 million tons to 178 million tons due to excessive rainfall in central Brazil and drought in Rio Grande do Sul. The US EPA will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal, and the market is concerned about whether it will increase the target consumption of biodiesel and renewable diesel [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2296 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or - 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2570.53 yuan/ton, down 37.36 yuan or - 1.43%. The rapeseed crushing profit decreased, and the basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [4]. - **Industry News**: As of February 25, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 0.34 tons to 39.39 tons. Spot available supply is tight, and the market trading is light [6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8714 yuan/ton, down 134 yuan or - 1.51% from the previous day. The national average price was 8740 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 1.35%. The import cost increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [7]. - **Industry News**: From February 1 - 25, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export volume also decreased. The domestic palm oil market is affected by high imports in February [8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures prices of different contracts showed different trends. The US cotton main - continuous contract rose 0.61 cents or 0.93% to 66.17 cents/pound. The national commercial cotton inventory decreased, and the spinning profit increased [9]. - **Industry News**: The USDA predicts a 3.9 - million - bale decrease in global cotton production in 2026/27. In the US, the net export signing volume of upland cotton in the 2025/26 season reached a new high. In China, the USDA expects a production reduction in the 2026/27 season, and the post - holiday demand is expected to increase [10][11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures prices of different contracts showed different trends. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises remained unchanged at 11852 tons [13]. - **Industry News**: The downstream market has started trading, and the spot price is stable. After the Spring Festival, the market is in the recovery stage, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a weak trend [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures prices of different contracts showed different trends. The national average pig slaughter price remained unchanged at 10770 yuan/ton. The inventory and slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased, and the breeding profit further weakened [15]. - **Industry News**: On February 26, 2026, the daily slaughter volume of key pig - raising enterprises increased. The number of piglets born in January increased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly. After the Spring Festival, the market enters the consumption off - season, and the slaughter end is expected to face price pressure [16].

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a downward trend, with the main contract for aluminum futures opening at 23,800.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 1.92% by midday, reaching a low of 23,435.00 CNY/ton [1] - The overall performance of aluminum prices is weak, with institutions indicating that the market is in a phase of adjustment due to reduced new orders from downstream aluminum processing enterprises and a general decline in operating rates as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, leading to a rise in inventory levels, while the demand side remains weak, suggesting that aluminum prices will primarily experience fluctuations during this off-peak consumption season [2] Group 2 - The recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, which has led to market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach for clearer economic guidance [2] - Inventory levels for aluminum are at their highest in nearly three years, contributing to a seasonal weakness in supply and demand dynamics [2] - The aluminum industry in the Middle East, particularly in Iran, faces fundamental vulnerabilities due to imbalances in internal capacity and raw material self-sufficiency, as well as an inefficient energy system, which may affect market stability [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. Short - term declines are due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction of the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. For iron ore, the market is also in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to fall due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere [2][4] - Technically, the steel futures price is oscillating within a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton, and may face a direction choice. The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has fallen near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and may have some support [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with production and demand at a low level, and inventory rising from a low level [2] - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend to varying degrees. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.98 million tons, down 0.05% [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed later and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. Last week, the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills remained basically unchanged. Steel and molten iron production are at a seasonal low, with limited room for significant increase or decrease. Steel mill restocking is nearly complete, and the market focuses more on spring consumption demand [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments increased slightly, but are expected to continue to decline in the later stage due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia decreased by 2.29% week - on - week, while those from Brazil increased by 27.31% week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 1.53% week - on - week [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4] 3. Industry News - According to data from Zhaogang.com, as of the week ending February 4, the output of key steel products in the country was 397.41 million tons, a decrease of 32.69 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand was 338.1 million tons, a decrease of 60.6 million tons from the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption has entered the off - season, with the output of downstream processed products declining month - on - month. The market trading is rather sluggish despite the decline in absolute prices. Social inventories have started to accumulate slowly, with the absolute inventory value still at a relatively low level over the years, and the expected peak of inventory accumulation is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, and the import window is closed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, smelting still faces some losses, and the pressure of continuous short - supply of zinc ingots is not obvious. In the long term, the report is still optimistic about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - $5.35/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 25,050 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 25,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 3, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,975 yuan/ton and closed at 24,960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 315,836 lots, and the open interest was 82,293 lots. The highest intraday price reached 25,240 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,615 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of February 3, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 108,975 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market for steel products is in the off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Short - term price drops are due to the pull - back of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For steel products, short - term prices are in a narrow range, and a direction choice may be needed. For iron ore, the demand is in the off - season, and supply is expected to decline further due to seasonal factors, with resistance above in the short - term [2][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory continued to rise, the total output of five major steel products increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory from a low level [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.96%) from the previous day and 45 yuan (- 1.43%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.82%) from the previous day and 41 yuan (- 1.24%) from last week. Other relevant prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or sell down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions at low prices [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement of steel apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. Steel and molten iron output will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have declined, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory has been rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 783 yuan/dry ton, down 8.5 yuan (- 1.07%) from the previous day and 1.5 yuan (- 0.19%) from last week. Other prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.0946 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.521 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.7 million tons [6]. - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first - batch project of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of this work [6]. - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.6692 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.7 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.4847 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2887 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.6 million tons [6]. - According to Mulin Research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%; the total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [6].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) and iron ore, along with relevant industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The short - term price increase may be due to the central bank's cancellation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises. For steel products, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range and may face a direction choice. For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the supply is expected to decline due to seasonal factors [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the rebar production of 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction choice [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, add positions at the lower edge of the oscillation range on price decline, and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3157 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous day and 1.06% from last week [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The main basis and various futures spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. For example, the main basis of rebar was 103 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47% from last week. The daily average molten iron output was 228.1 tons, up 0.04%. The national building material steel mill rebar production was 199.83 tons, up 0.14%. The five - major product social inventory was 890.73 tons, up 2.56% [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The market is still in the off - season of consumption. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The steel apparent demand improvement may be due to the year - end rush for construction. The global iron ore shipment has declined, and the arrival volume has decreased while the port inventory has increased [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price broke through the recent oscillation range and then fell back to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, which may provide some support [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Avoid chasing up or selling down [3] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 798.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.98% from the previous day and 1.53% from last week [3] - **Basis and Spreads**: The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 14.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - **Shipment and Inventory**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.7 tons, up 14.83% from last week. The port inventory was 16766.53 tons, up 1.28% [3] 3.3 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, down 0.2% month - on - month. The daily average raw coal output was 197.8 tons, down 1.6 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 549.6 tons, down 10.9 tons [5] - As of January 29, the rebar production was 199.83 tons, up 0.14% from last week; the total inventory was 475.53 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 23.43 tons; the rebar apparent demand was 176.40 tons, down 4.92% from last week [5] - A glass production line was restarted and ignited this week. As of January 29, the float glass industry operating rate increased 0.34% week - on - week to 71.96%. The national float glass production was 105.7 tons, flat week - on - week and down 3.38% year - on - year. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 5256.4 million heavy boxes, down 1.22% week - on - week, a new low in the past year [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the price of casting aluminum alloys, with the main contract closing at 23,785 yuan, up 770 yuan or 3.35% [1] - The trading volume for the main casting aluminum contract reached 23,390 lots, an increase of 13,048 lots, while the open interest decreased by 644 lots to 8,815 lots [1] - The spot prices for various aluminum alloy ingots showed notable increases, with A356.2 averaging 26,300 yuan per ton (up 300 yuan), A380 at 25,400 yuan per ton (up 200 yuan), and ADC12 at 23,900 yuan per ton (up 200 yuan) [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by U.S. President Trump's comments on the dollar's decline, which he views as normal, leading to a drop in the dollar to a four-year low of 95.566, positively impacting the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing a rebound in trading activity, with high prices leading to reluctance among suppliers to sell, while downstream buyers are hesitant to purchase at elevated prices, resulting in a market characterized by limited transactions despite high prices [2] - Supply-side constraints are noted due to regional tax policy adjustments, weather, and environmental factors affecting production, contributing to a continued state of market stagnation and high volatility in casting aluminum prices [2]