Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Recently, the policy expectation of supply - side contraction has increased, the overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market is strong, and the low volume of alumina warehouse receipts registration has driven the short - term strength of futures prices. However, based on the current aluminum industry development plan and the energy consumption level of alumina equipment, it is expected that there will be no large - scale capacity elimination. Some device rectification plans may be implemented, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. In the future, the implementation of supply - side policies still needs to be observed in the short term. The pattern of alumina over - capacity this year may still be difficult to change. With the continuous decline in the current warehouse receipt registration volume, there are uncertainties on both the long and short sides. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to mainly track the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3200 - 3700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Elimination of Backward Capacity" Policy Impact - The "anti - involution policy" introduced by relevant national departments has promoted a strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market, and the Wenhua Commodity Index has risen significantly out of the bottom shock range. The policy expectation has further strengthened, driving the alumina futures price to rise sharply with heavy volume on the night session of July 18. The current energy consumption standards for alumina plants are mainly based on the national standard GB21346 - 2022. Although some alumina production capacities have a long service life, most of them have been technically upgraded and replaced in recent years to meet the energy consumption benchmark level. For example, Chalco's alumina smelting energy consumption reached 100% of the energy - efficiency benchmark level in 2022, and Guangxi Guangtou's new project also has a very low comprehensive energy consumption. Weiqiao has also achieved low - energy consumption production through various measures. The "Aluminum Industry High - Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025 - 2027)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the beginning of the year has also set new standards for alumina projects. Based on the current aluminum industry development plan and the energy consumption level of alumina equipment, it is expected that there will be no large - scale capacity elimination, and some device rectification plans may be implemented, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited [5][6][7]. 3.2 Excess Supply - Demand Structure and Scarce Circulating Spot Goods - As of July 18, the latest weekly output of alumina reached 1.792 million tons, and the output rebounded to a new high this year. The total social inventory of alumina increased by 39,000 tons to 3.989 million tons compared with the previous week. Affected by factors such as over - selling by previous holders, unstable product quality, and overdue long - term order delivery, the finished product inventory of alumina plants has been directly transferred to downstream aluminum plants as raw material inventory, and the logistics and transportation in the northern region has been blocked, resulting in obvious backlogs of in - transit inventory. Therefore, the circulating spot goods in the market have been continuously tight. Affected by this, the alumina warehouse receipt registration volume has decreased for two consecutive months, and the current registered warehouse receipt volume is only 6,900 tons, a significant reduction from the previous high of 299,000 tons. In addition, the current inventory in the delivery warehouse is only 44,700 tons, with a large outflow compared with the previous period. Although the supply - demand structure remains in excess, the scarcity of circulating spot goods has led to more premium transactions, and the low warehouse receipt registration volume has intensified the delivery game on the capital side, driving the continuous strengthening of futures prices. Looking forward, the implementation of supply - side policies still needs to be observed in the short term. The pattern of alumina over - capacity this year may still be difficult to change, but with the continuous decline in the current warehouse receipt registration volume, there are uncertainties on both the long and short sides. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to mainly track the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3200 - 3700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [9][12].

（原标题：氧化铝大涨！后市怎么看？） "'反内卷'政策预期下，盘面价格大幅上涨，带动持货商看涨情绪较浓，挺价惜售。"对于近日市场强势 表现，上海钢联分析师陆俊杰分析。 阿拉丁（ALD）最新分析显示，上周受市场传闻氧化铝"产能淘汰预期"和交割库库存大降影响，资金情 绪高涨，盘面价格大幅上涨，市场询货积极。现货市场因多数氧化铝企业和传统贸易商可售货源不多， 在期货价格大涨带动的心理预期下，升水出货意愿增强，阶段内现货氧化铝价格保持偏强运行。 一德期货也指出，据近日国新办新闻发布会消息，钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长 工作方案即将出台，将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。这引发市场对供给侧收紧的 预期，特别是氧化铝。 事实上自6月份起，氧化铝现货市场价格就开启小幅上涨态势。 "2025年6月国内氧化铝现货价格呈先扬后抑走势，氧化铝加权月均价为3226元/吨，较上一月上涨159元/ 吨，环比上涨5.18%。"上海钢联分析师黄玉瑶表示，6月份部分氧化铝厂内高价矿石库存仍未消化完 毕，部分高成本氧化铝厂复产、提产节奏谨慎，新增产量优先执行长单，可流通现货有限。同时工厂现 货出售意愿不足，市场成 ...