1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and the destocking of the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter will bring new - year imagination [3][6] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. If the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, the soybean complex will still have room to rise in the first quarter. During the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Week's View and Logic Palm oil - The market was worried that Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter would still be high, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. Palm oil continued to move in a range, but the marginal trading of high - yield was temporarily fully priced. After a short - term over - decline, technical rebound supported it, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 0.19% last week [2] Soybean oil - The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without South American weather speculation, there was limited upward driving force. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound movement, waiting for a premium story. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.46% last week [2] 3.2 This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally favorable, which may lead to fourth - quarter production above last year's level. After the inventory reached nearly 2.5 million tons in October, the high - frequency production data from November 1 - 20 still showed an upward trend, and the ITS export data decreased by about 18% month - on - month. There is a possibility of non - destocking in November, and the year - end inventory may remain at a relatively high historical level of around 2.45 million tons, dropping to about 2 million tons by March next year [3] - The market's trading of high production from November - December is currently fully priced. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - intensity precipitation from typhoons, if the production in December is successfully reduced to 1.7 million tons on a month - on - month basis, the bottom of palm oil prices can be short - term confirmed [3] - In Indonesia, the export tax was successfully reduced by one level in December, but there is a possibility of an increase in January. So, exports are likely to be good in December. The rapid rebound of the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference, the stabilization and rebound of the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra, and the rapid decline of Indonesia's refining profit all indicate that the marginal negative factors in Indonesia are limited, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support [3] - The September data released by GAPKI shows that the export and domestic consumption are in full agreement with the previous estimates, but the production decline is extreme. It can be almost judged that Indonesia calculates the production by maintaining a neutral inventory figure, so the data is highly distorted, not only having no trading value but also increasing the difficulty of estimating future monthly production. However, the export data from October - November confirms that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and Indonesia's year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons [3] - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit has been good recently, which stimulates India to make a large number of purchase orders, showing a certain marginal restocking demand. China also provides some relief for the pressure on the producing areas through the carry structure and the narrowing import profit [3] Soybean oil - The WASDE announced the new - crop yield of US soybeans at 53 bushels per acre and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels. With a favorable yield, the inventory is slightly loose. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield or China's unexpected purchase exceeding the commitment to have room for further increase, so there are currently no factors for significant fluctuations [4][5] - Since the second half of October, the actual rainfall in the central - western, northeastern, and southeastern regions of Brazil has been continuously low, which has a certain impact on sowing and early growth. In the next month, the rainfall in the southern producing areas will be significantly less. While it is conducive to the acceleration of sowing in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and the core producing areas of Argentina, the soybean conditions in the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, the state of Paraná, and Paraguay will face a certain decline in pressure [5] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. Currently, US soybeans have a too high discount to South American soybeans. If the premium period is too long, the future pressure on US soybeans will be greater. However, if the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, there will still be upward space for the soybean complex in the first quarter [5] - In the domestic market, there are almost no gaps in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February - March are currently lower than the same period last year. At the same time, export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain a monthly destocking process until March - April next year. Therefore, during the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5] 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - **Price and price change**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90% [8] - **Trading volume and position changes**: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,473,903 lots, with a change of - 670,410 lots; the position was 331,361 lots, with a change of - 94,546 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,144,313 lots, with a change of - 576,061 lots; the position was 347,390 lots, with a change of - 72,801 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract was 2,673,029 lots, with a change of 76,582 lots; the position was 175,955 lots, with a change of - 67,969 lots [8] - **Price difference and change**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 price difference was 1,513 yuan/ton, down 6.95%; the soybean - palm 01 price difference was - 382 yuan/ton, down 6.11%; the palm oil 15 price difference was - 52 yuan/ton, up 55.93%; the soybean oil 15 price difference was 204 yuan/ton, down 1.92%; the rapeseed oil 15 price difference was 256 yuan/ton, down 34.53% [8] - **Warehouse receipt change**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 352 lots, an increase of 302 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 24,625 lots compared with last week; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,965 lots, a decrease of 68 lots compared with last week [8] 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - **Production and inventory**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter is likely to be above last year's level, and the year - end inventory remains high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately loose level [10][11][12] - **Price difference and profit**: The Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has rebounded rapidly, the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra has stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit has dropped significantly. The POGO price difference has rebounded, India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the India - soybean - palm CNF price difference has strengthened [12][13] - **Export data**: ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, a decrease of 18.8% compared with the same period last month [12] - **Rainfall situation**: The weekly rainfall situation in Malaysia and Indonesia is provided, including a two - week forecast [13] - **Import situation**: The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of four major oils and fats has decreased by 600,000 tons [14] - **Basis situation**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for 01 is - 50, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has stabilized [13]