Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar being mainly driven by rising crude oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5] - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the current increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [8] - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Recently, protein meal prices have large fluctuations and lack certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11] - For oils and fats, the current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports. So, a bullish view on oils and fats is maintained in the medium term [14] - For eggs, the overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens makes small eggs in short supply. Seasonal stocking boosts the spot price, but the short - term upside is limited. The near - month futures follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17] - For pigs, the slaughter scale is large and the weight is still increasing, and the improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as active frozen product warehousing and concentrated entry of second - fattening to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price is still weak. The futures contracts have high premiums, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - end fluctuations increase. The overall idea is to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, pay attention to realizing profits in time [20] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: In the first half of March, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil used 95.14% of sugarcane for ethanol production, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year. It is predicted that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and the sugar output will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous year to 40.3 million tons. From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared with the same period last year. As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, an increase of 2.49 million tons year - on - year. Thailand's sugar output in the 2025/26 season as of March 15, 2026, reached 10.27 million tons, an increase of 545,000 tons year - on - year. The ISO predicted in late February that the global sugar output in the 2025/26 season would be 181.29 million tons [4] Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15. From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The NDRC issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports with preferential tariff rates. From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons. As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The predicted US cotton output in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's output forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's output forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's output increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [6][7] Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Trump announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15. From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 27, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 18.14 million tons, an increase of 2.99 million tons year - on - year; the sample soybean port inventory was 4.83 million tons, an increase of 2.27 million tons year - on - year. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The predicted US soybean output was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted Brazilian output was 180 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted Argentine output was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction. In the March prediction, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [10] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year. The US EPA set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and required large - scale refiners to bear 70% of the exemption quota. Indonesia requires coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises not to export related products before meeting domestic demand. The Indonesian government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons year - on - year. In February, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. In the week of March 20, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats in the sample data was 1.95 million tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons year - on - year [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in China fell. The average price in the main producing areas dropped slightly to 3.39 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.04 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the market sales slowed down in most cases, and industry players mostly held a conservative wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term egg prices in China may be partly stable and partly fall [16] Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the mainstream domestic pig prices were stable, with partial slight increases and decreases. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 9.54 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 9.26 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou remained at 8.69 yuan per kilogram. Near the beginning and end of the month, the slaughter volume of the breeding side was limited, which supported the pig prices. However, the current slaughter volume of the slaughter side was average and showed no improvement, having limited impact on pig prices. It is expected that today's pig prices will be mainly stable [19]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Due to the continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. - Cotton: The issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of import quotas is a short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the downstream operating rate has returned to the level of the same period last year. The overall view is neutral, and the subsequent price trend depends on the downstream operating conditions. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5][7]. - Soybeans and Protein Meal: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Oils: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving up oil prices. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on oils in the medium term [13]. - Eggs: The egg production capacity is on a downward trend, but the absolute supply level remains high. The supply reduction is expected to be delayed. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contracts on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near term and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the long term [17]. - Pigs: Considering the still - high weight and theoretical slaughter volume, although the inventory of small farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is insufficient under the current fat - to - standard price difference, providing limited support for the market. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term futures contracts and wait and see in the long - term contracts due to high premium [20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Production Data**: In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, as of February 28, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 29.3 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton reduction from the second prediction but a 3.17 - million - ton year - on - year increase. As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand [2]. Cotton - **Supply - Demand Data**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 tons of processing trade import quotas with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; the export to China in the same period was 1,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - **Production and Export Data**: AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; the export to China in the same period was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction but a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [8]. Oils - **Industry News**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are prohibited from exporting relevant products before meeting domestic demand. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52%. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but an 860,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. According to MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 90,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; exports were 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 130,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 1.19 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The national egg price remained stable yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas slightly dropping 0.01 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each level was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with individual prices rising or falling [15][16]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some areas continuing to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.14 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 10.07 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped 0.09 yuan to 9.99 yuan per kilogram. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream pig purchase volume is relatively stable, and farmers' willingness to sell is strong. It is expected that the weak pig price trend will continue in the near future [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the industry [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils strengthened yesterday. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran has significantly affected international crude oil prices, leading to a sharp increase in oil prices and driving up the prices of oils [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +502 yuan and a change rate of +5.45% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,672.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +260.00 yuan and a change rate of +3.09% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,954.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +288.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.98% compared to the previous day [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,730.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +590.00 yuan and a change rate of +6.46% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P05 + 10.00, with a change of +88.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 9,000.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +360.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +4.17% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was Y05 + 328.00, with a change of +100.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,550.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +280.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.73% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was OI05 + 596.00, with a change of -8.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Argentina's Soybean Production Forecast - After the dry weather in January, timely rainfall in February stabilized the crop conditions in Argentina. The forecast for the 2025 - 26 soybean production remains at 48 million tons. If the forecast is realized, this year's soybean production in Argentina will be 5% less than the 51.1 million tons in the 2024 - 25 season, but it will still be the fourth - highest level in the past 10 years [2] International Commodity Price Changes - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price increased by 11 US dollars/ton to 611 US dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price increased by 11 US dollars/ton to 618 US dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price decreased by 44 US dollars/ton to 1,151 US dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) C&F price decreased by 24 US dollars/ton to 1,139 US dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) decreased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,100 US dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) decreased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,080 US dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price increased by 12 US dollars/ton to 531 US dollars/ton; US West soybeans (April shipment) C&F price increased by 12 US dollars/ton to 525 US dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) C&F price increased by 8 US dollars/ton to 480 US dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) increased by 9 cents/bushel to 243 cents/bushel; US West Coast (April shipment) increased by 9 cents/bushel to 227 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 3 cents/bushel to 105 cents/bushel [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term sharp rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. Fundamentally, at the end of January, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India further declined to relatively low levels. The report maintains a bullish view on edible oils in the medium term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.276 million tons, a decrease of 383,000 tons from the previous month [11]. - From February 1 - 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 19.20%, and the oil extraction rate dropped by 0.03% [11]. - In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340,000 tons compared to the same period last year; exports were 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and 320,000 tons compared to the same period last year; inventory was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 1.24 million tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - From February 1 - 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.025 million tons according to AmSpec, a decrease of 350,000 tons from January; and 852,000 tons according to SGS, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous month [11]. - As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but a decrease of 430,000 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - In the week of February 27, the inventory of the three major edible oils in domestic sample data was 1.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Valuation**: Y: 05 + 310 yuan/ton, P: 05 - 70 yuan/ton, OI: 05 + 661 yuan/ton; palm oil import profit was - 300 yuan/ton, and the biodiesel spread was at a medium level [12]. - **Driving Factors**: Malaysia's palm oil production showed seasonal decline and inventory decreased; soybean production had a slight reduction, global rapeseed had a bumper harvest, and global sunflower seed production had a slight reduction; the vegetable oil inventories in China and India were at a low level [12]. - **Multi - empty Scoring**: The overall score was neutral in valuation, with the biodiesel spread combined with inventory being neutral and import profit being low; the production situation was bearish; other factors were neutral; and the low inventory in China and India was bullish. The medium - term view was to be bullish on edible oils [12]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - **Single - sided Strategy**: Wait for price pull - backs to go long, driven by the low inventory in major consumer countries and the geopolitical crisis [13]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, including the basis of palm oil May contract, Malaysian palm oil basis, basis of soybean oil May contract, basis of rapeseed oil May contract, spread between soybean oil May and palm oil May contracts, and the monthly spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 contracts [20][24][26]. 3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil** - Malaysia's palm oil monthly production and export volume data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [32]. - Indonesia's palm oil production and export volume data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [34]. - **Soybean** - The weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil** - The monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [37]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory** - The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils from 2022 - 2026 and India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [41]. - **Palm Oil** - The near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [43]. - **Soybean Oil** - The spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [45]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - The average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [47]. - **Malaysia and Indonesia Palm Oil Inventory** - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [49]. 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil** - The reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil** - The near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Edible Oil Transactions** - The cumulative transaction volume of palm oil from 2022 - 2026 and the annual cumulative transaction volume of soybean oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit** - The POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to market rumors that customs clearance for South American soybeans will be extended by 10 - 20 days, the short - term price of soybean oil is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in China and India at the end of January further decreased to a relatively low level, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February led to weakening oil prices. The medium - term outlook remains bullish. The strategy is to wait for the oil prices to stop falling at a low level and then try to buy [11]. - The annual consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term outlook for oil prices is bullish [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2276000 tons, a decrease of 383000 tons from the previous month. From February 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in South Malaysia decreased by 22.24% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreasing by 23.82% and the oil extraction rate increasing by 0.30%. In January, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1580000 tons, a decrease of 250000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340000 tons compared to the same period last year; exports were 1480000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons from the previous month and 320000 tons compared to the same period last year; inventory was 2820000 tons, a decrease of 230000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1240000 tons compared to the same period last year. From February 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 922600 tons (AmSpec data) and 1022600 tons (ITS data), a decrease of 176400 tons and 141000 tons respectively compared to the same period last month. As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month but a decrease of 430000 tons compared to the same period last year. From February 13 - 20, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic samples was 1.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110000 tons. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. Starting from March 1, 2026, Indonesia will raise the export fee for crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5%, and the tax rate for refined products will also be increased by 2.5 percentage points [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis for soybean oil (Y) is 05 + 434 yuan/ton, for palm oil (P) is 05 + 0 yuan/ton, and for rapeseed oil (OI) is 05 + 795 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil is - 290 yuan/ton. The current production and inventory of major producing countries are at high levels. The global soybean production has a slight decrease, the global rapeseed is in a bumper harvest, and the global sunflower seed production has a slight decrease. China's oil inventory is relatively high, while India's oil inventory is relatively low. The overall strategy is to wait for the oil prices to stop falling at a low level and then try to buy [12]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: For the unilateral strategy, wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long, as the annual consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term outlook for oil prices is bullish. For the arbitrage strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the price differences between different contracts, including the basis of palm oil May contract, Malaysian palm oil basis, basis of soybean oil May contract, basis of rapeseed oil May contract, price difference between soybean oil May and palm oil May contracts, price difference between palm oil 5 - 9 contracts, price difference between soybean oil 5 - 9 contracts, and price difference between rapeseed oil 5 - 9 contracts [20][24][26]. 3.3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which reflect the supply situation of different oils and fats [32][34][36]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The report includes charts of the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, India's imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil near - month import profit, palm oil commercial inventory, Guangdong imported soybean spot crushing profit, soybean oil inventory in major oil mills, rapeseed coastal spot average crushing profit, rapeseed oil commercial inventory, Malaysian palm oil inventory, and Indonesian palm oil inventory, which comprehensively reflect the profit and inventory situation of the oil and fat industry [41][43][45]. 3.5. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, which reflect the cost situation of different oils and fats [52][55]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Oil and Fat Transactions**: The report shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil, which reflect the market demand for different oils and fats [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are related to the profit situation of biodiesel and reflect the demand for oils and fats in the biodiesel field [63].

News Summary - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in palm oil imports by India and a decrease in palm oil production in Malaysia, indicating shifts in supply and demand dynamics in the palm oil market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Import and Production Data - India's palm oil imports surged to 766,000 tons in January, marking the highest level since October 2025, compared to 507,204 tons in December [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production for January 1-31 decreased by 13.08% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.16% [1]. - The European Union's palm oil imports for the 2025/26 period are projected at 1.75 million tons, down from 1.81 million tons the previous year [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro factors such as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to a rise in oil prices, while palm oil production in Malaysia has decreased, and exports have increased [2]. - India's palm oil imports increased by 51% in January, indicating a boost in demand, primarily due to the widening price gap between soy and palm oil, enhancing palm oil's competitiveness [3]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that palm oil prices will maintain a high-level oscillation due to these market dynamics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats fluctuated yesterday. Despite the good soybean production, the China - Canada talks have not released the relevant result documents on rapeseed trade. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, the rising crude oil prices, and the production reduction in palm oil producing areas, the prices of oils and fats fluctuated upwards [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9092.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +182 yuan and a 幅度 of +2.04%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8226.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +132.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +1.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9345.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +354.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +3.94% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9060.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +180.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +2.03%, and the spot basis was P05 - 32.00, with a 环比 change of -2.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8520.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +100.00 yuan/ton and a 幅度 of +1.19%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, with a 环比 change of -32.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10180.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +360.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +3.67%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 835.00, with a 环比 change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of January 23, 2026 (Week 4), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 74.23 tons, a 环比 decrease of 0.38 tons and a decrease 幅度 of 0.51%, and a 同比 increase of 27.38 tons and an increase 幅度 of 58.44% compared with 46.85 tons last year [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1227 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1147 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 479 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 473 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotes: The premium of the Gulf of Mexico (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, an increase of 4 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day [2] - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 was 1099033 tons, a 7.97% increase compared with the export volume of 1017897 tons in the same period last month [2] - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%, among which the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 14.29%, the production in Sabah decreased by 11.12%, the production in Sarawak decreased by 23.21%, and the production in Borneo decreased by 14.6% [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - After the MPOB report, palm oil prices are expected to remain oscillating and strengthening this week, but the upside is limited by high inventory [8] - Driven by policy expectations, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend this week [8] - Domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline in Q1, soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price is well - supported at 7,800 - 8,000 [8] - For arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil, Grade 1 soybean oil, and Grade 3 soybean oil, as well as the quotes of rapeseed oil in Dongguan and palm oil in Dongguan, showed different trends from January to May [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: After the release of the MPOB report, palm oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; rapeseed oil is likely to decline; soybean oil futures are trending strongly, and an arbitrage strategy of long soybean oil and palm oil, short rapeseed oil is recommended [8] 2. Industry News - **Palm Oil Production**: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 20.49% and OER unchanged [9] - **Palm Oil Exports**: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 29.2% (ITS data) or 17.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [10][17] 3. Data Overview - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.209 million tons, down 77,000 tons from last week; the contract volume was 1.606 million tons, up 69,000 tons [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and the destocking of the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter will bring new - year imagination [3][6] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. If the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, the soybean complex will still have room to rise in the first quarter. During the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Week's View and Logic Palm oil - The market was worried that Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter would still be high, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. Palm oil continued to move in a range, but the marginal trading of high - yield was temporarily fully priced. After a short - term over - decline, technical rebound supported it, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 0.19% last week [2] Soybean oil - The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without South American weather speculation, there was limited upward driving force. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound movement, waiting for a premium story. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.46% last week [2] 3.2 This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally favorable, which may lead to fourth - quarter production above last year's level. After the inventory reached nearly 2.5 million tons in October, the high - frequency production data from November 1 - 20 still showed an upward trend, and the ITS export data decreased by about 18% month - on - month. There is a possibility of non - destocking in November, and the year - end inventory may remain at a relatively high historical level of around 2.45 million tons, dropping to about 2 million tons by March next year [3] - The market's trading of high production from November - December is currently fully priced. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - intensity precipitation from typhoons, if the production in December is successfully reduced to 1.7 million tons on a month - on - month basis, the bottom of palm oil prices can be short - term confirmed [3] - In Indonesia, the export tax was successfully reduced by one level in December, but there is a possibility of an increase in January. So, exports are likely to be good in December. The rapid rebound of the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference, the stabilization and rebound of the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra, and the rapid decline of Indonesia's refining profit all indicate that the marginal negative factors in Indonesia are limited, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support [3] - The September data released by GAPKI shows that the export and domestic consumption are in full agreement with the previous estimates, but the production decline is extreme. It can be almost judged that Indonesia calculates the production by maintaining a neutral inventory figure, so the data is highly distorted, not only having no trading value but also increasing the difficulty of estimating future monthly production. However, the export data from October - November confirms that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and Indonesia's year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons [3] - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit has been good recently, which stimulates India to make a large number of purchase orders, showing a certain marginal restocking demand. China also provides some relief for the pressure on the producing areas through the carry structure and the narrowing import profit [3] Soybean oil - The WASDE announced the new - crop yield of US soybeans at 53 bushels per acre and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels. With a favorable yield, the inventory is slightly loose. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield or China's unexpected purchase exceeding the commitment to have room for further increase, so there are currently no factors for significant fluctuations [4][5] - Since the second half of October, the actual rainfall in the central - western, northeastern, and southeastern regions of Brazil has been continuously low, which has a certain impact on sowing and early growth. In the next month, the rainfall in the southern producing areas will be significantly less. While it is conducive to the acceleration of sowing in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and the core producing areas of Argentina, the soybean conditions in the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, the state of Paraná, and Paraguay will face a certain decline in pressure [5] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. Currently, US soybeans have a too high discount to South American soybeans. If the premium period is too long, the future pressure on US soybeans will be greater. However, if the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, there will still be upward space for the soybean complex in the first quarter [5] - In the domestic market, there are almost no gaps in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February - March are currently lower than the same period last year. At the same time, export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain a monthly destocking process until March - April next year. Therefore, during the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5] 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - **Price and price change**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90% [8] - **Trading volume and position changes**: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,473,903 lots, with a change of - 670,410 lots; the position was 331,361 lots, with a change of - 94,546 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,144,313 lots, with a change of - 576,061 lots; the position was 347,390 lots, with a change of - 72,801 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract was 2,673,029 lots, with a change of 76,582 lots; the position was 175,955 lots, with a change of - 67,969 lots [8] - **Price difference and change**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 price difference was 1,513 yuan/ton, down 6.95%; the soybean - palm 01 price difference was - 382 yuan/ton, down 6.11%; the palm oil 15 price difference was - 52 yuan/ton, up 55.93%; the soybean oil 15 price difference was 204 yuan/ton, down 1.92%; the rapeseed oil 15 price difference was 256 yuan/ton, down 34.53% [8] - **Warehouse receipt change**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 352 lots, an increase of 302 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 24,625 lots compared with last week; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,965 lots, a decrease of 68 lots compared with last week [8] 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - **Production and inventory**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter is likely to be above last year's level, and the year - end inventory remains high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately loose level [10][11][12] - **Price difference and profit**: The Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has rebounded rapidly, the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra has stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit has dropped significantly. The POGO price difference has rebounded, India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the India - soybean - palm CNF price difference has strengthened [12][13] - **Export data**: ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, a decrease of 18.8% compared with the same period last month [12] - **Rainfall situation**: The weekly rainfall situation in Malaysia and Indonesia is provided, including a two - week forecast [13] - **Import situation**: The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of four major oils and fats has decreased by 600,000 tons [14] - **Basis situation**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for 01 is - 50, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has stabilized [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: High - frequency data is bearish, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increases, so palm oil will run weakly; Australian rapeseed will arrive at ports one after another, but it will take time for customs clearance and pressing, so rapeseed oil will run in a volatile manner; soybean oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with ample supply, and will run weakly due to the disturbance of US biodiesel policy [28]. - Medium - to long - term: After palm oil finds the bottom in a volatile manner, considering that the producing areas are about to enter the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil needs to closely monitor the Sino - Canadian trade trend, which may determine the futures price trend; the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering that soybean oil consumption is still cost - effective, the cost center is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Three - major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 1.09%, 1.08%, and 0.80% respectively. The spot prices decreased by 0.16%, 1.43%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. 3.2 Three - major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 20, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), 361 yuan/ton (an increase of 9 yuan/ton), and 30 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton) respectively. As of November 21, 2025, the YP price difference was - 360 yuan/ton (an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three - major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.08 million tons (a decrease of 0.52 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 65.32 million tons (an increase of 5.59 million tons); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.85 million tons (a decrease of 0.87 million tons); the total inventory of the three - major oils was 182.25 million tons (an increase of 4.2 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8813 yuan/ton (a decrease of 152 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 79 yuan/ton (an increase of 171 yuan/ton). From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 992.60 million tons (a decrease of 40.8 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 747.71 million tons (a decrease of 14.24 million tons), and the mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 7% from the previous week). The soybean crushing profit was - 573.35 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.85 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons (a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week). As of November 20, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2533.80 yuan/ton (a decrease of 159.4 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1400 tons, the trading volume of first - class soybean oil was 12500 tons, and the POGO price difference was 345.24 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Three - major Oil Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: There have been many disturbances in the US biodiesel policy recently. There are rumors of more favorable blending volume and also negative news of delaying or reducing import biofuel subsidies. The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring on November 20, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy and replacing the renewable energy efficiency department. The market is also concerned about the progress of Sino - Canadian trade relations [26]. - **Foreign Factors**: The latest USDA supply - and - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. In addition, exports were unexpectedly lowered by 50 million bushels, about 1.36 million tons. From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 20.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil [26]. - **Import and Pressing**: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 2.08 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 65.32 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 114.85 million tons [26]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three - major oils decreased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, rapeseed oil by 1.43%, and soybean oil by 0.47% [26].