油脂价格震荡， 等待回调做多机会 油脂周报 2026/02/28 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 | | 驱动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 利润及生柴价差 | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 出口、库存 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度库存 | | 数据 | Y：05+434元/吨 P：05+0元/吨 | 棕榈油进口利润-290 元/吨。生柴价差中 | 当前主产国产量和库存都处于 | 大豆：产量小幅减产 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 | 中国油脂库存偏高，印度油脂 | | | OI：05+795元/吨 | 位。 | 高位 | 葵籽：全球葵籽小幅减产 | 库存偏低 | | 多空评分 | 0 | +1.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 中性 | 生柴价 ...

News Summary - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in palm oil imports by India and a decrease in palm oil production in Malaysia, indicating shifts in supply and demand dynamics in the palm oil market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Import and Production Data - India's palm oil imports surged to 766,000 tons in January, marking the highest level since October 2025, compared to 507,204 tons in December [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production for January 1-31 decreased by 13.08% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.16% [1]. - The European Union's palm oil imports for the 2025/26 period are projected at 1.75 million tons, down from 1.81 million tons the previous year [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro factors such as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to a rise in oil prices, while palm oil production in Malaysia has decreased, and exports have increased [2]. - India's palm oil imports increased by 51% in January, indicating a boost in demand, primarily due to the widening price gap between soy and palm oil, enhancing palm oil's competitiveness [3]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that palm oil prices will maintain a high-level oscillation due to these market dynamics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats fluctuated yesterday. Despite the good soybean production, the China - Canada talks have not released the relevant result documents on rapeseed trade. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, the rising crude oil prices, and the production reduction in palm oil producing areas, the prices of oils and fats fluctuated upwards [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9092.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +182 yuan and a 幅度 of +2.04%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8226.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +132.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +1.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9345.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +354.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +3.94% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9060.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +180.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +2.03%, and the spot basis was P05 - 32.00, with a 环比 change of -2.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8520.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +100.00 yuan/ton and a 幅度 of +1.19%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, with a 环比 change of -32.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10180.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +360.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +3.67%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 835.00, with a 环比 change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of January 23, 2026 (Week 4), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 74.23 tons, a 环比 decrease of 0.38 tons and a decrease 幅度 of 0.51%, and a 同比 increase of 27.38 tons and an increase 幅度 of 58.44% compared with 46.85 tons last year [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1227 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1147 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 479 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 473 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotes: The premium of the Gulf of Mexico (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, an increase of 4 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day [2] - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 was 1099033 tons, a 7.97% increase compared with the export volume of 1017897 tons in the same period last month [2] - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%, among which the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 14.29%, the production in Sabah decreased by 11.12%, the production in Sarawak decreased by 23.21%, and the production in Borneo decreased by 14.6% [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - After the MPOB report, palm oil prices are expected to remain oscillating and strengthening this week, but the upside is limited by high inventory [8] - Driven by policy expectations, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend this week [8] - Domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline in Q1, soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price is well - supported at 7,800 - 8,000 [8] - For arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil, Grade 1 soybean oil, and Grade 3 soybean oil, as well as the quotes of rapeseed oil in Dongguan and palm oil in Dongguan, showed different trends from January to May [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: After the release of the MPOB report, palm oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; rapeseed oil is likely to decline; soybean oil futures are trending strongly, and an arbitrage strategy of long soybean oil and palm oil, short rapeseed oil is recommended [8] 2. Industry News - **Palm Oil Production**: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 20.49% and OER unchanged [9] - **Palm Oil Exports**: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 29.2% (ITS data) or 17.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [10][17] 3. Data Overview - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.209 million tons, down 77,000 tons from last week; the contract volume was 1.606 million tons, up 69,000 tons [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and the destocking of the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter will bring new - year imagination [3][6] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. If the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, the soybean complex will still have room to rise in the first quarter. During the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Week's View and Logic Palm oil - The market was worried that Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter would still be high, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. Palm oil continued to move in a range, but the marginal trading of high - yield was temporarily fully priced. After a short - term over - decline, technical rebound supported it, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 0.19% last week [2] Soybean oil - The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without South American weather speculation, there was limited upward driving force. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound movement, waiting for a premium story. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.46% last week [2] 3.2 This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally favorable, which may lead to fourth - quarter production above last year's level. After the inventory reached nearly 2.5 million tons in October, the high - frequency production data from November 1 - 20 still showed an upward trend, and the ITS export data decreased by about 18% month - on - month. There is a possibility of non - destocking in November, and the year - end inventory may remain at a relatively high historical level of around 2.45 million tons, dropping to about 2 million tons by March next year [3] - The market's trading of high production from November - December is currently fully priced. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - intensity precipitation from typhoons, if the production in December is successfully reduced to 1.7 million tons on a month - on - month basis, the bottom of palm oil prices can be short - term confirmed [3] - In Indonesia, the export tax was successfully reduced by one level in December, but there is a possibility of an increase in January. So, exports are likely to be good in December. The rapid rebound of the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference, the stabilization and rebound of the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra, and the rapid decline of Indonesia's refining profit all indicate that the marginal negative factors in Indonesia are limited, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support [3] - The September data released by GAPKI shows that the export and domestic consumption are in full agreement with the previous estimates, but the production decline is extreme. It can be almost judged that Indonesia calculates the production by maintaining a neutral inventory figure, so the data is highly distorted, not only having no trading value but also increasing the difficulty of estimating future monthly production. However, the export data from October - November confirms that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and Indonesia's year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons [3] - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit has been good recently, which stimulates India to make a large number of purchase orders, showing a certain marginal restocking demand. China also provides some relief for the pressure on the producing areas through the carry structure and the narrowing import profit [3] Soybean oil - The WASDE announced the new - crop yield of US soybeans at 53 bushels per acre and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels. With a favorable yield, the inventory is slightly loose. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield or China's unexpected purchase exceeding the commitment to have room for further increase, so there are currently no factors for significant fluctuations [4][5] - Since the second half of October, the actual rainfall in the central - western, northeastern, and southeastern regions of Brazil has been continuously low, which has a certain impact on sowing and early growth. In the next month, the rainfall in the southern producing areas will be significantly less. While it is conducive to the acceleration of sowing in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and the core producing areas of Argentina, the soybean conditions in the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, the state of Paraná, and Paraguay will face a certain decline in pressure [5] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. Currently, US soybeans have a too high discount to South American soybeans. If the premium period is too long, the future pressure on US soybeans will be greater. However, if the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, there will still be upward space for the soybean complex in the first quarter [5] - In the domestic market, there are almost no gaps in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February - March are currently lower than the same period last year. At the same time, export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain a monthly destocking process until March - April next year. Therefore, during the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5] 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - **Price and price change**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90% [8] - **Trading volume and position changes**: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,473,903 lots, with a change of - 670,410 lots; the position was 331,361 lots, with a change of - 94,546 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,144,313 lots, with a change of - 576,061 lots; the position was 347,390 lots, with a change of - 72,801 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract was 2,673,029 lots, with a change of 76,582 lots; the position was 175,955 lots, with a change of - 67,969 lots [8] - **Price difference and change**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 price difference was 1,513 yuan/ton, down 6.95%; the soybean - palm 01 price difference was - 382 yuan/ton, down 6.11%; the palm oil 15 price difference was - 52 yuan/ton, up 55.93%; the soybean oil 15 price difference was 204 yuan/ton, down 1.92%; the rapeseed oil 15 price difference was 256 yuan/ton, down 34.53% [8] - **Warehouse receipt change**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 352 lots, an increase of 302 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 24,625 lots compared with last week; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,965 lots, a decrease of 68 lots compared with last week [8] 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - **Production and inventory**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter is likely to be above last year's level, and the year - end inventory remains high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately loose level [10][11][12] - **Price difference and profit**: The Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has rebounded rapidly, the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra has stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit has dropped significantly. The POGO price difference has rebounded, India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the India - soybean - palm CNF price difference has strengthened [12][13] - **Export data**: ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, a decrease of 18.8% compared with the same period last month [12] - **Rainfall situation**: The weekly rainfall situation in Malaysia and Indonesia is provided, including a two - week forecast [13] - **Import situation**: The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of four major oils and fats has decreased by 600,000 tons [14] - **Basis situation**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for 01 is - 50, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has stabilized [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: High - frequency data is bearish, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increases, so palm oil will run weakly; Australian rapeseed will arrive at ports one after another, but it will take time for customs clearance and pressing, so rapeseed oil will run in a volatile manner; soybean oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with ample supply, and will run weakly due to the disturbance of US biodiesel policy [28]. - Medium - to long - term: After palm oil finds the bottom in a volatile manner, considering that the producing areas are about to enter the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil needs to closely monitor the Sino - Canadian trade trend, which may determine the futures price trend; the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering that soybean oil consumption is still cost - effective, the cost center is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Three - major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 1.09%, 1.08%, and 0.80% respectively. The spot prices decreased by 0.16%, 1.43%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. 3.2 Three - major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 20, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), 361 yuan/ton (an increase of 9 yuan/ton), and 30 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton) respectively. As of November 21, 2025, the YP price difference was - 360 yuan/ton (an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three - major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.08 million tons (a decrease of 0.52 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 65.32 million tons (an increase of 5.59 million tons); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.85 million tons (a decrease of 0.87 million tons); the total inventory of the three - major oils was 182.25 million tons (an increase of 4.2 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8813 yuan/ton (a decrease of 152 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 79 yuan/ton (an increase of 171 yuan/ton). From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 992.60 million tons (a decrease of 40.8 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 747.71 million tons (a decrease of 14.24 million tons), and the mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 7% from the previous week). The soybean crushing profit was - 573.35 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.85 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons (a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week). As of November 20, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2533.80 yuan/ton (a decrease of 159.4 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1400 tons, the trading volume of first - class soybean oil was 12500 tons, and the POGO price difference was 345.24 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Three - major Oil Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: There have been many disturbances in the US biodiesel policy recently. There are rumors of more favorable blending volume and also negative news of delaying or reducing import biofuel subsidies. The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring on November 20, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy and replacing the renewable energy efficiency department. The market is also concerned about the progress of Sino - Canadian trade relations [26]. - **Foreign Factors**: The latest USDA supply - and - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. In addition, exports were unexpectedly lowered by 50 million bushels, about 1.36 million tons. From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 20.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil [26]. - **Import and Pressing**: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 2.08 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 65.32 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 114.85 million tons [26]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three - major oils decreased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, rapeseed oil by 1.43%, and soybean oil by 0.47% [26].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market is expected to experience a slight rebound this week due to limited inventory pressure and planned shutdowns by some enterprises, despite the downward pressure from Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of last Thursday (November 6), the domestic first-grade soybean oil price was 8378 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The weekly average price was 8358 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 35 yuan/ton, or 0.42% [1]. - The soybean oil price was under pressure due to the accumulation of palm oil in Malaysia, but international soybean price increases provided cost support, limiting the price decline [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased, and demand has improved, providing support for the soybean oil market. As of October 31, port soybean oil inventory was 1.1808 million tons, down 3.27% from the previous period [3]. - The operating load rate of major soybean crushing enterprises has declined, leading to a decrease in soybean oil production. The total soybean crushing volume for the week was estimated at 2.0658 million tons, with soybean oil production around 371,800 tons, a decrease of 58,100 tons and 10,500 tons respectively from the previous week [3]. - Despite the weak soybean oil market last week, downstream markets increased purchases at lower prices, with the total transaction volume of scattered oil from major oil plants being approximately 90,300 tons, a slight increase of 12,400 tons from the previous period [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming release of the latest supply and demand data by Malaysia MPOB on November 10 is expected to show an increase in palm oil production and inventory for October, which may negatively impact the oilseed market and limit soybean oil price increases [3]. - However, due to increased shutdowns for maintenance by some enterprises, soybean oil supply is expected to be limited, and the strong pricing mentality among enterprises suggests that soybean oil may experience a volatile upward trend this week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week. Palm oil prices declined, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices increased. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, overseas supply, and demand [4][27]. - Different short - and long - term trends are expected for each oil. Palm oil may be weak in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; soybean oil will fluctuate widely in the short - term and its price center may move up in the long - term; rapeseed oil will be slightly strong in the short - term and maintain a wide - range oscillation in the long - term [30][35][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 31 to November 7, 2025, palm oil futures closed down 1.19%, with a spot price decline of 0.66%; soybean oil futures rose 0.69%, with a spot price increase of 0.60%; rapeseed oil futures rose 1.18%, with a spot price increase of 1.42% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 317 yuan/ton (an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 28 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the YP spread was - 476 yuan/ton (an increase of 160 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 3.80 tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills decreased to 59.28 tons; the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills decreased to 121.58 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased to 184.66 tons [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - As of November 6, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8973 yuan/ton (a decrease of 101 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the import gross profit was - 281 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week). From November 1 - 5, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.80% month - on - month [13]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.90 tons (a decrease of 10.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 710.79 tons (a decrease of 40.4 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 54% (a decrease of 7% from the previous week). As of November 6, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 550.35 yuan/ton (an increase of 54.55 yuan/ton from the previous week) [18]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 1 ton (a decrease of 1 ton from the previous week). As of November 7, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2346.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 244 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 29,800 tons, and the POGO spread was 321.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 46.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 tons [26]. 3.6 Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and the progress of China - Canada trade relations is being watched. - Overseas: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. The October palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 12.31% month - on - month to 2.07 million tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories decreased. - Inventory: As of October 31, the inventories of the three major oils all decreased. - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed mixed trends this week [27]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations 3.7.1 Palm Oil - Short - term: Weak operation, pay attention to market volatility risks after the release of the MPOB report next week. - Long - term: After bottom - hunting in oscillation, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [29][30]. 3.7.2 Soybean Oil - Short - term: Wide - range oscillation, waiting for the details of China's soybean purchases from the US. - Long - term: The price center is expected to move up, but the upward space and rhythm will be affected by multiple factors [34][35]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Slightly strong oscillation. - Long - term: Maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern under the tight supply - demand balance [37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to continue its weak performance next week. In the long - term, after a bottom - seeking process, palm oil futures prices are likely to stabilize and rebound considering the upcoming seasonal production reduction cycle in the producing areas and the long - term support of biodiesel policies [32]. - The market is waiting for further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, and the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 3.92%, 3.47%, and 0.81% respectively. The corresponding spot prices decreased by 2.81%, 2.19%, and 0.48% respectively [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of October 30, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 314 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 22 yuan/ton (an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of October 31, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (an increase of 292 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 4.20 million tons (a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 60.71 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week), and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 125.03 million tons (an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 189.94 million tons (an increase of 4.77 million tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 1% to 2.543 million tons [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 9.731 million tons (a decrease of 0.153 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major oil mills was 7.5129 million tons (a decrease of 0.1741 million tons from the previous week). The oil mill operating rate was 61% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 604.90 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons (a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2590.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 480 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1700 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 8700 tons. The POGO spread was 368.49 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [27]. Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. The overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. - Foreign Factors: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report for this month was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association predicts that this year's palm oil production will increase by 10%, higher than the market expectation [29]. - Import and Pressing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 4.20 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 60.71 million tons, and the national soybean oil inventory in oil mills increased to 125.03 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils all decreased. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.81%, that of soybean oil decreased by 0.48%, and that of rapeseed oil decreased by 2.19% [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Palm Oil**: This week, palm oil futures fell 3.92%. Considering the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production and the call to halt Indonesia's B50 plan, the short - term outlook is weak, but in the long - term, it may rebound. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, soybean oil futures fell 0.81%. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, but the China - US relationship is optimistic. The domestic soybean inventory pressure is still large in the short - term, but the cost side has certain support. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fell 3.47%. The fundamentals have not changed much, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [10] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. Looking ahead, soybean oil may face supply pressure and its basis may be under pressure; palm oil is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October; rapeseed oil may face supply shortages after the National Day, and its basis is firm, with the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter expected to provide some support [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,236 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 yuan or 0.86%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 166 yuan or 1.99%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 94 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,190 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60 yuan or 0.65%, and the spot basis was P01 - 46, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 130 yuan or 1.53%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 218, a week-on-week increase of 36 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 90 yuan or 0.87%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 218, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. During the week of September 19 - 25, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, all with a shipment date of October, and 1 vessel was cancelled, with a shipment date of November [2] - Demand: As of the week of September 25, the trading volume of palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8,634 tons, an increase of 5,391 tons or 166.23% from the previous week [2] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 58.51 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.64 tons or 8.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.28 tons or 23.87% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month-on-month increase of 609,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January - August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 73.312 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4%. It is estimated that 10.3 million tons will arrive in September, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of vessels for the September - October shipment period has basically been completed, but the purchase progress for the November - January shipment period is slow [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil at key domestic oil mills was 75,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 15,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 17.58% [3] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2359 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,300 tons or 1.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 105,700 tons or 9.35% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of September 19, the rapeseed crushing volume at coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. After the implementation of the anti-dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will generally face a shortage of raw materials after the National Day, leading to a shutdown wave in the industry. Currently, the market is pinning its hopes on the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed [4] - Demand: In September, the rigid demand brought by the start of the school term boosted the consumption of oils, and the market's pick-up pace significantly accelerated [5] - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory at coastal oil mills was 75,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - This week, the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. The temporary exemption of export tariffs on agricultural products in Argentina at the beginning of the week led to a sharp decline in soybean oil prices, and palm oil was also dragged down. Rapeseed oil continued to perform strongly due to factors such as tight rapeseed supply, stagnant imports of Canadian rapeseed, and continuous destocking of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [5] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The supply pressure may continue, and the basis may face pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-US trade relations [6] - Palm oil: It is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October [7] - Rapeseed oil: After the National Day, it may face supply shortages, and the basis is firm. The traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter is expected to provide some support. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-Canadian trade relations [9]