棕榈油近况与展望 20250910 摘要 棕榈油市场近期虽回调，但中期上涨空间大。消息真空期市场信心不足， 止盈盘离场致价格波动。美豆油价格下行空间有限，或引发国际豆棕价 差反弹，棕榈油性价比有望再提升。 美国和巴西生物燃料政策增加美豆油投料，导致豆油出口缩水，推高国 际豆棕价差，利好棕榈油出口。印尼 B40 政策及潜在 B50 政策支撑棕 榈油中长期需求。 马来西亚和印尼未来供需趋紧。马来西亚产量或继续回落，印尼打击非 法种植园增加产量风险。两国库存整体下降，对价格形成支撑。 印度植物油库存偏低，存在补库需求。印尼出口税费上调减弱竞争力， 马来西亚出口数据表现良好。印度后续补库支撑依然存在。 印尼打击非法种植园影响显著，涉及千万吨级别产量。B40 政策提振国 内消费，明年或执行 B50 政策。印尼库存压力较小，有助于整体供需趋 紧。 全球气候变化可能在 2026 年一季度对棕榈油生产造成滞后性冲击，进 一步收紧供需关系，对价格形成支撑及提振作用。 预计 2026 年全球棕榈油产量增速将显著放缓。印尼产量增量有限，伐 木种植园经营权移交存在风险。全球棕榈油产量增长缺乏亮点。 Q&A 棕榈油价格自 2025 年 ...

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年6月中国豆油进口数量为1万吨，同比下降82.1%，进口金额为0.06亿美 元，同比下降81.5%。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国豆油行业市场供需态势及发展前景研判报告》 ...

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The under - expected palm oil production in both Malaysia and Indonesia has supported the price increase of palm oil, but attention should be paid to whether the export demand can sustain the current price [4] - As of August 8, 2025, South American soybean prices strengthened on a weekly basis, while those in the US Gulf were weak, and rapeseed prices in many regions declined [7] - As of August 8, 2025, Argentine soybean oil prices dropped by over $50/ton on a weekly basis, and US Gulf soybean oil prices fell by $41/ton, while Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices rose slightly [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side Information - In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month to 1.812417 million tons, lower than the institutional estimate of 1.83 million tons. Exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons, higher than the estimate of 1.3 million tons. End - of - July inventory reached 2.11 million tons, lower than the estimate of 2.23 - 2.25 million tons [3] - In July, rainfall in many parts of Malaysia was lower than normal, and the oil extraction rate of palm fruit decreased instead of increasing [3] Price Information - The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $10/ton, compared with $51.5/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $124.4/ton [19] - The price difference between Indian port soybean oil and crude palm oil was $28/ton, lower than $67/ton the previous week. The price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $18/ton, compared with $115/ton the previous week. The price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $23/ton, compared with $54/ton the previous week [24] Purchase and Demand Information - There were no reports of palm oil purchases last week [26] - Last week, domestic buyers purchased 3000 tons each of Dubai rapeseed oil for the October/November shipment, and there were rumors that domestic oil mills purchased rapeseed for the September shipment [33] - Last week, far - month soybean oil transactions remained high, especially against the backdrop of domestic non - procurement of US soybeans [127] Profit and Margin Information - Subsidies decreased, and processing and blending losses increased [120] - European RME prices weakened, but European rapeseed oil prices declined more, and RME processing profit remained at the average level [123] - Palm oil and rapeseed oil basis were stable, while soybean oil basis weakened again [131] Balance Sheet Information - The report provides monthly balance sheets for various oils, including overall oils, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, covering data from 2024 to 2025, showing information on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, end - inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [146]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to close at 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 26 points to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 130 points to close at 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 67 points to close at 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to close at 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the ICE canola active contract fell 17 points to close at 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.43% [4][7]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the US non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than market expectations, and the employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards. The expectation of recession pricing increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September heated up. The US stock market tumbled, the US bond price strengthened, and the US dollar index closed down. Oil prices rose and then fell last week. Fundamentally, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to continue to increase in July due to the increasing production and weak export demand. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the report. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][7][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 26 points to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 130 points to 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 67 points to 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 156 yuan/ton to -636 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil increased by 93 yuan/ton to 614 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong, fell 80 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.89%; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 yuan/ton to 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%; the spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, rose 30 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [7]. - In July 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production increased by 7.07%. From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [8]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July, which means the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton in August. In addition to the export tax, Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on CPO exports, which remains the same as last month [8][9]. - From January to June 2025, Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of CPO and refined palm oil, a 2.69% increase compared to the same period last year. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of this year increased by 22.2% year-on-year [9]. - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3618 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 0.0037 million tons from last week and 0.0031 million tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.6155 million tons, an increase of 0.0241 million tons from last week and 0.1088 million tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6582 million tons, an increase of 0.0016 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 49,300 tons, compared with 15,840 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 526 tons, compared with 440 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The EU agreed to impose zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil [11]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 are expected to exceed 500,000 tons, higher than 480,000 tons in 2024. Indonesia is expected to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India this year to support India's plan to expand the oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 2026 [11]. - From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year-on-year, from 61,000 tons in the same period last year to 93,000 tons [12]. - When the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EU is approved, the EU will grant zero-tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO. The EU and Indonesia are expected to officially sign the free trade agreement in September and obtain approval from their respective legislative bodies next year. If the Indonesian CPO exported to the EU exceeds the 1 million - ton quota, an additional 3% tariff will be imposed [12][13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, exports, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory of domestic oils and fats [15][17][20][23][25][27][33][35][41][46].

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国棕榈油行业产业运营现状及战略咨询研究报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年5月中国棕榈油进口数量为18万吨，同比下降8.4%，进口金额为1.9亿美 元，同比增长3.7%。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high commercial inventory of soybean oil is putting pressure on the overall oil market, causing it to fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,970 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.27% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,226 yuan/ton, a change of +106 yuan or +1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +86 yuan or +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.22%, with a spot basis of P09 + -30 yuan, a change of -4 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,350 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.46%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124 yuan, a change of +14 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.84%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 88 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Market News - India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm germinated seeds and the largest export market for Malaysian palm oil in 2024, importing 3.03 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports. India aims to expand its oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 26 and achieve a palm oil production target of 2.8 million tons by 2029 - 30 [2] - The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) decreased by 2, 2, and 3 dollars/ton respectively. The import soybean premium quotes from the Mexican Gulf and US West Coast (September shipment) remained flat, while that from Brazilian ports increased by 1 cent/bushel [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (August and October shipments) remained flat. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (August and October shipments) remained flat, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) increased by 2 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0881 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, but the inventory pressure is still large. There is a B50 expectation in the palm oil market, but the implementation time is uncertain, and the pattern of loose palm oil supply cannot be changed in the short term [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in palm oil production and decline in exports have constrained its market price performance. However, Indonesia's high biodiesel consumption and sufficient tax revenue for subsidies make Malaysian palm oil exports more competitive. Recently, the palm oil market has generally maintained a strong upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents **Futures Market** - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,926 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active contract is 492,920 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is -16,949 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 58,164 lots, a decrease of 6,469 lots [2]. - The settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 4,172 Malaysian ringgit/ton, a decrease of 89 ringgit/ton. The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.95/barrel, a decrease of $0.1/barrel [2]. **Spot Price** - The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9,000 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, and 9,150 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing by 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,040/ton, a decrease of $15/ton, and the CNF price is $1,078/ton, also a decrease of $15/ton [2]. - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [2]. **Up - stream Situation** - Malaysia's monthly palm oil production is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; and the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2]. - Indonesia's monthly palm oil production is 4.9 million tons, exports are 2.88 million tons, and the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2]. - The FOB price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $96.2/ton, an increase of $39.84/ton. The daily export volume data from ITS and SGS show a significant decline [2]. **Industry Situation** - The weekly palm oil inventory is 563,000 tons, an increase of 27,900 tons. The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2]. - The national daily soybean oil port inventory is 932,000 tons, and the weekly rapeseed oil port inventory is 685,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [2]. - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 9,244.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141.04 yuan/ton. The import profit is -244.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 171.04 yuan/ton [2]. - The ex - factory prices of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen are 8,220 yuan/ton and 9,520 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 40 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2]. **Down - stream Situation** - Malaysia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 870,000 tons and 3.1 million tons respectively, with an increase of 5,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. - Indonesia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 7.4 million tons and 13.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 200,000 tons and 500,000 tons [2]. - China's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 3.6 million tons and 2.3 million tons respectively, with a decrease of 100,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for palm oil is 20.06%, an increase of 1.51% and 1.5% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 11.64% and 18.7% respectively, with decreases of 3.34% and 0.1% [2]. **Industry News** - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with the FFB yield increasing by 7.03% and the OER decreasing by 0.16% [2]. - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 were 740,394 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period in June. According to ITS data, exports were 817,755 tons, a 3.5% decrease, with exports to China decreasing by 7,000 tons [2].

Group 1 - The strong demand for palm oil in the Indian market is a key factor driving the rise in Malaysian palm oil futures prices, with India expected to import over 800,000 tons of palm oil in June [1] - In May, India's palm oil imports reached 660,000 tons, a 12% increase compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in purchasing activity [1] - Indian buyers are strategically stockpiling palm oil due to relatively low international prices, with some refineries already pre-booking shipments for July [1] Group 2 - The robust demand from India is seen as a timely boost for the market, with replenishment needs post-Ramadan and seasonal consumption growth further driving palm oil prices up [3] - India's palm oil inventory at ports has dropped to a three-month low of 280,000 tons, increasing the urgency for importers to ramp up purchases [3] - Despite the optimistic outlook, Malaysian palm oil prices need to overcome challenges such as Indonesia's potential reintroduction of export taxes and fluctuations in international soybean oil prices and crude oil markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing sideways fluctuations, with recent high prices deterring Indian buyers despite a recovery in procurement activity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Palm oil prices are currently stable, showing no significant upward or downward trends [1] - Indian buyers have recently resumed purchasing but are being discouraged by elevated prices [1] - Analysts suggest that there is still support for prices at lower levels, indicating potential resilience in the market [1]