二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 25 日 棕榈油：基本面无新增利空，炒作题材不断 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比交易上行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：月初 MPOB 报告兑现利空落地、B50 风险初现后基本面几无新增利空，同时美国生柴政策趋 近落地、印尼印度加税等炒作话题频发，寒潮、地缘等问题发酵带动原油价格上行，马来逐步兑现 1 月减 产，棕榈油季节性做多情绪高涨，棕榈油 05 合约周涨 3.39%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，跟随油脂板块上行为主，同时油粕比偏多交易思路强 化，豆油 05 合约周涨 1.45%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：虽然在给到中国进口利润的情况下的上涨暗示着基本面无实际改善，但当前几乎无可能新增 的利空消息，年前伴随着寒潮的到来炒作一些无法证伪的题材的交易思路偏多，而前期对于马来高库存现 实市场已充分交易，新的趋势性利空需要看到 1-2 月产量仍在 160 及 150 万吨以上水位运行，但在 1 月 SPPOMA 仍显示减产幅度 16%，ITS 前 20 日出口环比增 ...

商品回暖， 油脂跟随走强 油脂周报 2026/01/24 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据SPPOMA数据显示，2026年1月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下滑16.06%，鲜果串单产下滑16.49%出油率上升0.08%。据 MYSTEEL公布的样本数据显示，截止1月16日当周，国内三大油脂库存198万吨，环比前一周减少3万吨。美国政府计划在3月初敲定2026年生 物燃料掺混配额。印尼能源部副部长表示印尼已取消今年将生物柴油强制掺混比例提升至50%的计划（即B50计划)，维持现行B40计划。据 USDA数据显示，1月预估美国豆油消费13.2百万吨，环比12月预估减少0.249百万吨，较上年度增加1百万吨。据印度溶剂萃取商协会数据显 示，印度12月总的植物油进口为138万吨，环比11月增加20万吨。据MPOB公布的数 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 to January 20 reached 947,939 tons, representing an increase of 11.4% compared to 851,057 tons during the same period last month [1]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures have been operating steadily for 20 years, with significant increases in trading volume and open interest, indicating enhanced liquidity and risk-bearing capacity [1] - Over 90% of medium and large soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, establishing the futures price as a key benchmark for domestic soybean oil spot trading [4] - The ability of soybean oil futures to serve the global oilseed industry has improved, with recent initiatives allowing foreign investors to trade these futures, thereby enhancing the international influence of China's soybean oil pricing and quality [5] Group 1: Market Performance - Daily trading volume of soybean oil futures increased from 43,100 contracts in 2006 to 445,000 contracts in 2025, while daily open interest rose from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [1] - The distribution of over 30 delivery warehouses across seven provinces ensures sufficient delivery capacity, supporting industry participation in the futures market [1] Group 2: Industry Adoption - More than 90% of large soybean crushing enterprises use the "Dalian Commodity Exchange futures price + basis" pricing model for soybean oil sales, indicating widespread acceptance of futures in the industry [4] - By the end of 2025, the proportion of industry clients holding soybean oil futures positions is expected to reach 52% [4] Group 3: Global Integration - In 2022, soybean futures were included in the list of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors, facilitating international trading [5] - The introduction of the FSOY contract on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange based on soybean oil futures settlement prices reflects the growing global integration of these futures [5] Group 4: Risk Management and Pricing - The use of soybean oil futures has evolved from cautious experimentation to a critical tool for daily risk management and operational decision-making within the industry [5] - The adoption of basis pricing for other edible oils, such as cottonseed oil, demonstrates the broader acceptance and application of soybean oil futures pricing mechanisms [6]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant increase in China's soybean oil imports, with a quantity of 50,000 tons in November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 827.2% and an import value of 5.5 million USD, which is a 976.6% increase [1] Group 1: Market Trends - China's soybean oil imports have surged dramatically, indicating a strong demand in the market [1] - The substantial growth in import volume and value suggests potential opportunities for investors in the soybean oil sector [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering quality services and market insights, which can aid investment decision-making [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025 from January to November, the weighted index of palm oil prices fluctuated between rising and falling. The trading rhythm was affected by factors such as the expected difference and implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the release and progress of the US biodiesel policy, the expected difference in production and export demand, the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, and the repeated geopolitical situations causing greater fluctuations in crude oil prices [3][47] - In 2026, the global palm oil production is expected to increase by 2% - 3%, approximately 1.6 - 2.4 million tons, with the USDA estimating the global production at 80 million tons. Indonesia's production will only increase slightly due to policy - restricted planting area, possibly benefiting from improved technical management efficiency. Malaysia's palm oil production will remain at 20 million tons in 2026, basically the same as the previous year, mainly because of the aging of palm trees and the slow replanting progress [3][47] - Malaysia is currently facing high inventory pressure, and its subsequent tariffs may be adjusted to promote exports. The USDA expects the new - year export volume to be 16.1 million tons, a slight increase. Indonesia's export demand may increase slightly due to the postponement of the biodiesel policy, currently estimated at 23.7 million tons, with limited overall export demand growth. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is planned to be implemented in the second half of 2026, expected to bring an increment of 2 million tons, but it may be further postponed [3][47] - The global supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is expected to remain loose, and soybean and rapeseed oils still have price advantages, with substitution demand remaining. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has entered the stage of a peace agreement, with supply expected to increase but demand growth slowing. Oil prices are generally weak and fluctuating at low levels, providing limited support to the oil market [3][48] - Overall, in 2026, the global palm oil production and edible consumption will maintain a trend of growth. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy will bring an increase in demand, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Due to factors such as supply - demand mismatch, policy expectation differences, and geopolitical conflicts, there will be structural market conditions within the year, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 7,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][48] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Market Review - In early 2025, palm oil prices continued to weaken. The failure of Indonesia's expected B40 policy in January, the strong US economic data leading to a stronger US dollar index suppressing the commodity market, and the high - priced palm oil suppressing market demand led to a continuous price decline. After the release of the USDA report in January, the significant downward adjustment of the yield per unit area and the Trump tariff policy boosting US soybean oil consumption demand led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices, causing palm oil prices to stop falling. After the Spring Festival, with domestic low - inventory status continuing, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, and the pre - Ramadan stocking demand, along with concerns about production due to excessive precipitation in the producing areas and Indonesia's re - emphasis on the upcoming implementation of the B40 policy, palm oil prices rose continuously. From late February to May, palm oil prices fluctuated and declined. In March, the producing areas entered the production - increasing season, the US tariff policy on the world raised concerns about market demand, the sharp decline in crude oil prices drove down the oil sector, and the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy led to the price decline. From June to August, palm oil prices started to rise. The first - stage rise was mainly driven by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, as well as the US biodiesel policy expectation after the passage of the large - scale and beautiful bill. The second - stage rise was mainly due to the positive impact of the July MPOB report, the news that Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy was being gradually implemented and the B50 policy was in the testing and R & D stage. The third - stage rise was mainly because the inventory accumulation in the August MPOB report was less than expected, the preliminary ruling result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseeds was released, the US Environmental Protection Agency's biodiesel policy exemption obligation was less than expected, and US soybean oil prices were strongly boosted. In September, prices fluctuated due to the interweaving of multiple factors. In October, prices started to fall due to the continuous increase in monthly production, the increase in substitution by soybean oil due to its better cost - effectiveness, the weakening of palm oil export demand, the inventory accumulation exceeding expectations, and the supply becoming more relaxed [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - The MPOB's monthly data shows that in November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The overall impact of the report was bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reducing season. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand is expected to increase, providing good support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process of Malaysian palm oil [19] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is currently at a high level compared to the same period. The official reference price in December 2025 was set at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, lower than that in November. The export tariff rate is 10%, and the export mechanism may be adjusted later to reduce high inventory. About 30% of Malaysia's oil palm trees are over 19 years old, and about 12% are over 25 years old, with an average tree age of about 15 years, approaching the decline period after the peak of yield per unit area, resulting in a slowdown in production capacity growth. The replanting of palm trees requires a 3 - 5 - year sapling growth period, and the current replanting rate is 1% - 2%, lower than the level required to maintain production capacity. Therefore, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to be 20 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025 [20] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Export - According to the latest data from the SPPOMA, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. According to the MPOA, from November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period of the previous month, with production in different regions all increasing [27][29] - According to the data of shipping survey institutions, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared to the same period of the previous month. The export volume data from different institutions showed different degrees of decline [29] 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data from the GAPKI, in September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million tons; the export volume was 2.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27 million tons; the domestic consumption was 2.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The inventory in August 2025 was 2.59 million tons [32] - Indonesia's forestry working group composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials is strongly promoting the nationalization process of illegal plantations, having seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations, with a target of reaching 4 million hectares by the end of the year, accounting for 24.5% of the country's oil palm planting area. The USDA estimates the new - year production to be 47.5 million tons, with only a slight year - on - year increase, more relying on the improvement of government management efficiency rather than area expansion. If Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, it is expected to bring a demand increment of about 2 million tons in that year, while squeezing some export demand. If the policy is continuously postponed, part of the demand will be transferred to the export side [33] 3.2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Import - According to the data from the SEA, in October 2025, India's vegetable oil import volume was 1.33 million tons. From November 2024 to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 16.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 tons. Among different oils, the import volume of palm oil decreased year - on - year, the import volume of soybean oil increased year - on - year, and the import volume of sunflower oil decreased year - on - year [35][37] 3.2.5 China's Oil Import - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, the rapeseed oil import volume was 141,000 tons, and the sunflower oil import volume was 32,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of the three major oils was 4.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease compared to the previous year [39][40] 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.1975 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 246,200 tons compared to the same period of the previous year. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand will increase, and there are more import orders than before. Currently, the domestic inventory growth has slowed down, and it is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. The trading volume is average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the holiday effect will provide some support for prices [42] 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is basically the same as the core views, including the price fluctuations in 2025, the production and demand situation in 2026, the situation of related varieties, and the overall market pattern and price forecast [47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and the destocking of the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter will bring new - year imagination [3][6] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. If the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, the soybean complex will still have room to rise in the first quarter. During the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Week's View and Logic Palm oil - The market was worried that Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter would still be high, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. Palm oil continued to move in a range, but the marginal trading of high - yield was temporarily fully priced. After a short - term over - decline, technical rebound supported it, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 0.19% last week [2] Soybean oil - The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without South American weather speculation, there was limited upward driving force. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound movement, waiting for a premium story. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.46% last week [2] 3.2 This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally favorable, which may lead to fourth - quarter production above last year's level. After the inventory reached nearly 2.5 million tons in October, the high - frequency production data from November 1 - 20 still showed an upward trend, and the ITS export data decreased by about 18% month - on - month. There is a possibility of non - destocking in November, and the year - end inventory may remain at a relatively high historical level of around 2.45 million tons, dropping to about 2 million tons by March next year [3] - The market's trading of high production from November - December is currently fully priced. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - intensity precipitation from typhoons, if the production in December is successfully reduced to 1.7 million tons on a month - on - month basis, the bottom of palm oil prices can be short - term confirmed [3] - In Indonesia, the export tax was successfully reduced by one level in December, but there is a possibility of an increase in January. So, exports are likely to be good in December. The rapid rebound of the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference, the stabilization and rebound of the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra, and the rapid decline of Indonesia's refining profit all indicate that the marginal negative factors in Indonesia are limited, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support [3] - The September data released by GAPKI shows that the export and domestic consumption are in full agreement with the previous estimates, but the production decline is extreme. It can be almost judged that Indonesia calculates the production by maintaining a neutral inventory figure, so the data is highly distorted, not only having no trading value but also increasing the difficulty of estimating future monthly production. However, the export data from October - November confirms that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and Indonesia's year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons [3] - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit has been good recently, which stimulates India to make a large number of purchase orders, showing a certain marginal restocking demand. China also provides some relief for the pressure on the producing areas through the carry structure and the narrowing import profit [3] Soybean oil - The WASDE announced the new - crop yield of US soybeans at 53 bushels per acre and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels. With a favorable yield, the inventory is slightly loose. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield or China's unexpected purchase exceeding the commitment to have room for further increase, so there are currently no factors for significant fluctuations [4][5] - Since the second half of October, the actual rainfall in the central - western, northeastern, and southeastern regions of Brazil has been continuously low, which has a certain impact on sowing and early growth. In the next month, the rainfall in the southern producing areas will be significantly less. While it is conducive to the acceleration of sowing in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and the core producing areas of Argentina, the soybean conditions in the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, the state of Paraná, and Paraguay will face a certain decline in pressure [5] - The short - term rebound height of US soybeans is limited. China's recent procurement rhythm and South American weather will determine the callback level. Currently, US soybeans have a too high discount to South American soybeans. If the premium period is too long, the future pressure on US soybeans will be greater. However, if the problem of rainfall in South America persists or the Brazilian shipping issue recurs, there will still be upward space for the soybean complex in the first quarter [5] - In the domestic market, there are almost no gaps in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February - March are currently lower than the same period last year. At the same time, export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain a monthly destocking process until March - April next year. Therefore, during the short - term rebound of palm oil, soybean oil should be mainly lightly long - allocated, running in a range for the time being, waiting for the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after overall stabilization in the first quarter [5] 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - **Price and price change**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90% [8] - **Trading volume and position changes**: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,473,903 lots, with a change of - 670,410 lots; the position was 331,361 lots, with a change of - 94,546 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,144,313 lots, with a change of - 576,061 lots; the position was 347,390 lots, with a change of - 72,801 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract was 2,673,029 lots, with a change of 76,582 lots; the position was 175,955 lots, with a change of - 67,969 lots [8] - **Price difference and change**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 price difference was 1,513 yuan/ton, down 6.95%; the soybean - palm 01 price difference was - 382 yuan/ton, down 6.11%; the palm oil 15 price difference was - 52 yuan/ton, up 55.93%; the soybean oil 15 price difference was 204 yuan/ton, down 1.92%; the rapeseed oil 15 price difference was 256 yuan/ton, down 34.53% [8] - **Warehouse receipt change**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 352 lots, an increase of 302 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 24,625 lots compared with last week; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,965 lots, a decrease of 68 lots compared with last week [8] 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - **Production and inventory**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter is likely to be above last year's level, and the year - end inventory remains high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately loose level [10][11][12] - **Price difference and profit**: The Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has rebounded rapidly, the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra has stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit has dropped significantly. The POGO price difference has rebounded, India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the India - soybean - palm CNF price difference has strengthened [12][13] - **Export data**: ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, a decrease of 18.8% compared with the same period last month [12] - **Rainfall situation**: The weekly rainfall situation in Malaysia and Indonesia is provided, including a two - week forecast [13] - **Import situation**: The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of four major oils and fats has decreased by 600,000 tons [14] - **Basis situation**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for 01 is - 50, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has stabilized [13]

Market Overview - As of November 19, the CNF price for 24-degree palm oil imports for December and January is reported at $1060/ton and $1080/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $10 to $22/ton [1] - Malaysia's MENTIGA CORPORATION reported October crude palm oil production at 999.11 million tons, fresh fruit bunch production at 5157.34 million tons, and palm kernel production at 239.82 million tons [1] - On November 19, the national port transaction volume for 24-degree palm oil was 800 tons, a decrease of 33.33% compared to the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) continued to rise, supported by the strength in soybean oil. However, concerns over demand and a stronger ringgit have led to palm oil prices retreating from intraday highs. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, putting pressure on spot prices, and a wide fluctuation in palm oil prices is expected in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlighted that the U.S. diesel market is experiencing lower-than-average production but strong exports and domestic demand, leading to a tight supply-demand balance. This situation is expected to have a marginal spillover effect on vegetable oils. The recent strength in international soybean oil prices has also influenced palm oil, which is following the upward trend. However, short-term supply-demand indicators for palm oil in Malaysia appear weak. Domestic soybean crushing margins remain poor, with soybean oil outperforming soybean meal. The market is closely watching potential changes in U.S. biodiesel policies, which could lead to an improvement in palm oil margins and a higher probability of a bottoming phase for palm oil prices [3]

Core Insights - The global palm oil market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by high volatility, high premiums, and policy-driven dynamics. The era of supply growth is ending, with demand being reshaped by biodiesel policies, making regulations more critical than traditional supply-demand factors in price formation [4][5][20]. Market Reality - The palm oil market has entered a structurally tight phase due to a fundamental shift in the supply and demand landscape. Key drivers include capacity constraints, policy interventions, and resilient demand. Major producers Indonesia and Malaysia are experiencing a slowdown in growth, while biodiesel policies are reshaping global trade flows [5][6][8]. Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is reaching a ceiling, with forecasts indicating a slowdown or even negative growth by 2026 due to aging trees, slow replanting rates, and land ownership uncertainties. Malaysia's production is also stagnating, with a slight decline expected [6][7]. - Thailand is a rare bright spot, with a production increase of 0.8% due to advantages in EU compliance [7]. Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's domestic biodiesel policies are significantly influencing demand, with the B40 policy consuming approximately 15.62 million kiloliters of crude palm oil (CPO). The proposed B50 policy could further increase demand by 1.5 to 3 million tons, squeezing export supplies [8]. - Import markets remain resilient, with India expected to increase palm oil imports from 8.1 million tons to 9.1 million tons in the 2025/26 period, supported by strategic reserves in China and demand from ASEAN and Africa [8]. Consensus Expectations - There is a clear consensus among institutions regarding a bullish long-term outlook for palm oil prices, driven by structural supply tightness. However, short-term price fluctuations are expected due to inventory pressures and policy uncertainties [9][10]. - The average annual growth rate for global palm oil production is projected to drop from 2.9 million tons in the past decade to 1.4 million tons in the next decade, marking the end of the capacity expansion era [9]. Price Outlook - In the short term (Q4 2025 - Q1 2026), prices are expected to be under pressure due to high Malaysian production and seasonal increases in Indonesian output, potentially dropping to $920-$950 per ton. In the medium to long term, prices may rebound to $1,100 per ton due to seasonal low production and the potential implementation of the B50 policy [10]. Institutional Divergence - Significant differences exist among institutions regarding price forecasts, focusing on the extent of supply declines, timing of policies, and external factors. Some institutions predict a price rebound starting in Q1 2026, while others emphasize the need for policy triggers [11][12][14]. Core Variables and Drivers - The future market direction hinges on several core variables, including the timing of Indonesia's B50 policy implementation, the execution details of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), weather and production risks, and dynamics of competing oils [16][18][21]. - Indonesia's strategic approach to palm oil, driven by resource nationalism, aims to enhance its global pricing power while reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels through biodiesel policies [21][22].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the significant increase in China's soybean oil imports, with a notable rise in both quantity and value in September 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Import Data Summary - In September 2025, China's soybean oil imports reached 70,000 tons, marking an 81.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The import value for the same period was $0.77 million, which represents a 105.4% year-on-year growth [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The company has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1]