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棕榈油:产地近端基本面改善有限,豆油:关注成本支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 03:20
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report focuses on the cost support of soybean oil and provides comprehensive data on the fundamentals of edible oils, including futures, spot prices, positions, and spreads [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures on the previous trading day were 8,360 yuan/ton, 8,000 yuan/ton, and 9,482 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily price changes of 0.19%, 0.20%, and 0.06%. The night - session closing prices were 8,378 yuan/ton, 8,014 yuan/ton, and 9,463 yuan/ton, with changes of 0.22%, 0.17%, and - 0.20% [1]. - **Positions**: The positions of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 595,784 hands, 828,034 hands, and 410,903 hands respectively, with position changes of 5,856 hands, 10,946 hands, and - 20,706 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi were 8,490 yuan/ton, 8,190 yuan/ton, and 9,490 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong, soybean oil in Guangdong, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi were 130 yuan/ton, 190 yuan/ton, and 8 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were presented. For example, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 46 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending June 24, about 12% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 13% the previous week and up from 6% in the same period last year [2]. - From June 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.83% month - on - month, compared with a 2.5% increase from June 1 - 20 [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].