Core Viewpoint - Iran is facing severe drought for six consecutive years, with Tehran, the political and economic center, experiencing particularly critical water shortages as the rainy season has passed without any rainfall [1] Group 1: Drought Impact - Tehran has not received any rainfall for 48 days since the start of the 2025 rainy season, leading to significant challenges in water resource supply [1] - The Iranian Meteorological Organization predicts that the drought conditions will continue for several weeks, with the first expected rainfall not occurring until December [1] Group 2: Government Response - The Energy Minister, Ali Abadi, announced measures to minimize water resource waste by reducing water pressure in certain areas of Tehran during nighttime [1] - Many residents in northeastern Tehran have reported water shortages at night, causing increased anxiety among the population [1]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector is facing significant challenges due to extreme weather conditions, including drought followed by excessive rainfall, which have severely impacted crop yields and farmers' incomes [1][3][10]. Group 1: Crop Yield and Financial Impact - Farmers in regions like Henan, Shaanxi, and Shandong are reporting that they may not recover the costs of fertilizers and seeds due to poor harvests, with some expecting to earn significantly less than previous years [1][10]. - For instance, a farmer in Henan noted that his corn yield dropped from over 1,100 yuan per mu last year to potentially less than 400 yuan this year [1]. - Another farmer reported that his yield of 6,000 pounds of wet corn sold for only 3,000 yuan, a stark contrast to previous years where he earned over 1,000 yuan per mu [12][13]. Group 2: Weather Conditions and Harvest Challenges - The average rainfall in Henan since September reached 349.6 mm, 2.6 times higher than the historical average, marking the highest level since records began in 1961 [5]. - In Shandong, rainfall was recorded at 246.5 mm, a 269% increase compared to the norm, leading to soil saturation and difficulties in harvesting [6]. - The persistent rain has caused delays in harvesting, with traditional harvesting machinery becoming ineffective in muddy conditions, forcing farmers to resort to manual methods [7][10]. Group 3: Government and Cooperative Responses - The Ministry of Agriculture has mobilized over 200,000 tracked harvesters to assist in the affected regions, highlighting the urgency of the situation [7][17]. - Emergency measures have been implemented, including the establishment of over 4,700 grain drying service points across Shandong and Henan to help farmers manage their wet harvests [15][17]. - The national cooperative society has called for better coordination and resource allocation to enhance harvesting and drying capabilities in response to the ongoing challenges [17].

Core Points - The Environment Agency of the UK has declared parts of Sussex County to be in a drought state due to the continuous decline in water levels at the Ardingly Reservoir [1] - This declaration follows similar drought statuses in regions such as Yorkshire, Cumbria, and Lancashire earlier this year [1] - The primary reasons for the drought include prolonged dry weather from spring to early summer and increased water demand due to rising temperatures linked to climate change [1] Summary by Sections - **Drought Declaration** - Sussex County has been officially classified as in drought status, with the Ardingly Reservoir currently at only 27.6% of its total capacity, insufficient for normal water supply needs [1] - Southeast Water has submitted a drought order application to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) for approval [1] - **Drought Response Measures** - The Environment Agency and Southeast Water will implement a pre-established drought response plan, which includes the cancellation of exemptions to the hosepipe ban [2] - Users are encouraged to adopt water-saving measures, such as reducing shower times and using kitchen wastewater for irrigation [2] - **Water Resource Status** - Although some areas experienced rainfall in September, experts emphasize that this single month's rain cannot offset the cumulative impact of several months of below-average rainfall [2] - Continuous rainfall throughout the autumn and winter is necessary for the recovery of groundwater, reservoirs, and rivers, while ecological recovery will take longer [2]

Group 1 - The core issue is the severe drought affecting Europe and the Mediterranean region, with over 51.3% of the soil impacted as of early August [1] - Since mid-April, approximately half of Europe has been experiencing drought conditions, which are more severe than the historic drought of summer 2022 [1] - The drought has significantly increased the risk of forest fires, with over 1 million hectares of land burned in the EU due to drought-related fires since 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Europe is experiencing unprecedented heat waves, with temperatures reaching historical highs, significantly impacting the economy and agriculture [3][4][5]. Economic Impact - The economic losses from heat waves in Europe are projected to increase fivefold by 2060, with GDP losses potentially reaching -1.1% annually during peak years [6][7]. - In the past extreme heat years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018), the estimated GDP loss due to heat waves ranged from 0.3% to 0.5%, with some vulnerable regions experiencing losses exceeding 1% [6][7]. - Southern European countries, particularly Portugal, Spain, and Croatia, are expected to face the most significant economic losses from heat waves, while Northern and Central European countries will be less affected [6][7]. Agricultural and Environmental Concerns - The heat waves are exacerbated by drought conditions, which have led to significant agricultural impacts, including reduced crop yields and increased food prices [8][9]. - Spain's water reserves are critically low, with levels approximately 15% below average, raising concerns about wildfires and agricultural production [8][9]. - The olive oil production in Spain has been severely affected, leading to the highest global prices in 26 years due to extreme heat and lack of rainfall [8]. Climate Change Context - The current heat waves are unprecedented for this time of year, with temperatures exceeding historical averages by 20°C in some areas [5][6]. - Climate scientists indicate that the warming in Europe is occurring at a rate three to four times faster than in other mid-latitude regions, contributing to the severity of heat waves [10][11].

Core Insights - The UK is currently facing a nationwide water shortage, with multiple regions experiencing drought conditions, leading to low river flows and reservoir levels, which pose significant challenges to agriculture and the ecological environment [1] Group 1: Drought Conditions - The first half of this year has been the driest for the UK since 1976, with river flows and reservoir levels continuing to decline despite some rainfall in July [1] - August has seen a return of dry weather, compounded by a fourth heatwave of the summer, increasing pressure on public water supply systems and inland waterways [1] Group 2: Impact on Agriculture and Ecology - Drought has significantly impacted ecology and agriculture, with low river flows causing oxygen depletion in water, leading to fish deaths and algal blooms, while drying wetlands threaten dependent species [1] - Agricultural production is suffering, with some farms experiencing severe crop reductions and livestock operations forced to use winter feed early due to insufficient grass growth, leading to rising production costs [1] Group 3: Government Response - The UK government plans to enhance response measures and is advancing a £104 billion (approximately 10,063 million RMB) investment plan, which includes the construction of nine new reservoirs and the upgrading of water supply pipelines [1]

Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that as of the week ending August 5, approximately 3% of the U.S. soybean planting area is affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and compared to 4% the same time last year [1] - About 3% of the U.S. corn planting area is experiencing drought conditions, a decrease from 7% the prior week and 5% year-over-year [1] - Approximately 3% of the U.S. cotton planting area is under drought stress, reduced from 5% last week and 10% in the same week last year [1]

Core Points - The wildfires in Cyprus, which erupted on the 23rd, have burned over 100 square kilometers of land, marking one of the most severe wildfires in history [1] - The fires have resulted in 2 fatalities and multiple injuries, with significant damage to homes, power facilities, and vineyards in the Limassol and Paphos regions [1] - Initial assessments indicate that approximately 124 square kilometers have been affected, and the fires are suspected to be caused by arson [1] - Cyprus is currently experiencing prolonged drought and severe heat waves, with temperatures reaching 44 degrees Celsius on the 24th, setting a record for the highest temperature this year [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report focuses on the cost support of soybean oil and provides comprehensive data on the fundamentals of edible oils, including futures, spot prices, positions, and spreads [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures on the previous trading day were 8,360 yuan/ton, 8,000 yuan/ton, and 9,482 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily price changes of 0.19%, 0.20%, and 0.06%. The night - session closing prices were 8,378 yuan/ton, 8,014 yuan/ton, and 9,463 yuan/ton, with changes of 0.22%, 0.17%, and - 0.20% [1]. - **Positions**: The positions of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 595,784 hands, 828,034 hands, and 410,903 hands respectively, with position changes of 5,856 hands, 10,946 hands, and - 20,706 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi were 8,490 yuan/ton, 8,190 yuan/ton, and 9,490 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong, soybean oil in Guangdong, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi were 130 yuan/ton, 190 yuan/ton, and 8 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were presented. For example, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 46 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending June 24, about 12% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 13% the previous week and up from 6% in the same period last year [2]. - From June 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.83% month - on - month, compared with a 2.5% increase from June 1 - 20 [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].

Group 1 - The report from the European Union Commission's Joint Research Centre indicates that over half of Europe and the Mediterranean basin experienced drought in mid-May, marking the highest level since monitoring began in 2012 [1] - The drought affected 53% of the region from May 11 to 20, which is over 20 percentage points higher than the average from 2012 to 2024 [1] - 42% of the affected areas are experiencing water shortages at the warning level, while 5% are at the alert level, indicating abnormal vegetation growth [1] Group 2 - High temperatures and reduced rainfall are the primary causes of the drought, which is expanding in range and severity [1] - In Northern, Eastern, and Central Europe, drought conditions are at a high alert level, with approximately 19% of Ukraine's land facing alert-level drought affecting crop growth [2] - The UK has experienced its warmest spring since records began in 1884, with 98% of the regions facing drought conditions since mid-March, and rainfall 40% below the long-term average [2] Group 3 - The reduction in precipitation, soil dryness, and river drying are putting pressure on ecosystems, agriculture, and transportation across Europe and surrounding areas [2] - The European Central Bank has warned that the eurozone economy heavily relies on natural ecosystems and related industries, with drought potentially leading to significant economic risks [2] - A lack of surface water could put nearly 15% of the eurozone's economic output at risk [2]