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农业策略:现货市场平稳,玉米盘面上行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 07:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - Protein meal: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - Corn and starch: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - Pigs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - Natural rubber: Expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - Synthetic rubber: BR market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - Cotton: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - Sugar: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - Logs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides views on the supply and demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product. Overall, the market for most agricultural products is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with some products showing weakening trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and fats**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in May 2025 is 1.74 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.07%. Due to technical buying, US soybean prices rose on Wednesday, and the three major domestic oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - **Protein meal**: International soybean trade premiums and discounts are in a state of shock, and the net long position of CFTC has increased month-on-month. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices continue to decline, and soybean imports are expected to increase month-on-month. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - **Corn and starch**: The domestic corn market is stable with a slight weakness, and port traders continue to wait and see. In the medium term, the tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing while the demand is weak, and pig prices are running weakly. In the short term, the pressure on farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs is increasing, and the proportion of large pigs sold is increasing. In the long term, the sow production capacity is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - **Natural rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material prices are dragged down by the futures market. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the finished product inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. The market is expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The price of butadiene has stabilized, and the market is at a historical low. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral, and the reduction of production by some private enterprises may help relieve the pressure on social inventory. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to consumption. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase year-on-year, and the yield may be high. The demand side shows that cotton consumption is relatively rigid, but it has gradually weakened seasonally in June. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The expected supply and demand in the next season are loose, and sugar prices are running weakly. The international market is optimistic about the sugar production in Brazil in the new season, and other major producing countries also have production increase expectations. The domestic market shows high sales and consumption rates and a decrease in industrial inventory. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it is mainly in a range-bound operation. The supply side shows a continuous decline in warehouse receipts and positive news from strikes and maintenance. The demand side is in a seasonal off-season, and there is no stockpiling action. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - **Logs**: The spot market is weak, and the futures market is declining. The supply and demand in the log market have weakened in June, and the short-term arrival pressure continues. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the variety data monitoring for oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the given text.