金融期货早评 宏观：美国上周首次申请失业救济人数意外不增反降 【市场资讯】1）中国工信部等六部门：有序发展直播电商、即时零售等新业态，推动人工 智能在消费品全行业全领域全过程应用。2）中国商务部：敦促荷兰政府尽快提出建设性的 安世半导体解决方案，为企业开展内部协商创造有利条件。3）万科历史首次探讨债券展期， 公告称拟召开 2022 年度第四期中期票据持有人会议。4）美国上周首次申请失业救济人数 意外不增反降、回落至 21.6 万，创七个月新低；美国 9 月耐用品订单初值环比增长 0.5%符 合预期，核心资本品订单增速超预期加快至 0.9%。8）美联储褐皮书：覆盖政府关门期的 一个多月内，经济活动变化不大，关税压力挤压企业利润，AI 抑制部分招聘需求，零售商 透露政府关门对消费有负面影响。9）英国财相公布 260 亿英镑增税计划，伦敦证交所新股 豁免三年印花税；官方预算监管机构意外提前泄露预算案：财政缓冲翻倍至 220 亿英镑， 大幅下调 2026 年 GDP 增速至 1.4%。10）特朗普称促俄和谈取得巨大进展但"没有最后期 限"；俄总统助理：美国特使威特科夫将于下周访问莫斯科；俄总统新闻秘书：与美接触时 间 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓下行，资金向 2603 合约转移。当日，玉米 1 月合 | | | | 约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港口玉米报价上涨。 | | | | 东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情况来看，辽宁、吉 | | | | 林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持续上涨，目前农户 | | | | 仍较为惜售。 昨日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工企业早间门前 | | | | 剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河 | 震荡上涨 | | | 北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面 | | | | 仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上 | | | | 量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态 | | | | 滚动建库。技术上，周三玉米 2601 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 继续走弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 区间交易 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生 ...

2025年11月27日 星期四 期货研究 | | 滑。盘面预计在 8600-9400 区间内运行，建议观望。 | | --- | --- | | | 风险提示：工厂开工计划、下游减产计划、西北地区空气污染等环保扰动 | | | 市场表现：昨日 LC2605 收于 96,340 元/吨（-1000），收盘价-1.03%。 基本面：澳大利亚锂辉石精矿（CIF 中国）现货报价为 1,185 美元/吨，较前日+65 | | | 美元/吨，SMM 电碳报 92,800 | | | 元/吨，工碳报 90,400 元/吨。供给方面，上周周产量新高为 22,130 吨，环比+585 吨。SMM 预计 11 月产量 | | 碳 | 为 92,080 吨，环比-0.2%。需求方面，11 月磷酸铁锂排产为 41.0 万吨，10 月为 39.4 万吨，环比+4.0%，同 | | 酸 | 比+43.5%。三元材料排产为 8.5 万吨，10 月为 8.4 万吨，环比+1.4%，同比+39.8%。预计 11-12 月维持去库， | | 锂 | 但 12 月紧缺程度收窄，上周样本库存为 11.84 万吨，去库-2052 吨，去库速度延缓，库 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：科技龙头试图上攻，股指分化 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：短线或可博弈反弹 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | 蛋白粕：国际库存压力有限 | 价格整体支撑 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价区间震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货上涨，花生盘面大幅上涨 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪仍偏弱 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 16 | | --- | | 铜：美降息预期提高，铜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The medium - to long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall volatile trend. Pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased. The overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the further driving force will be released in December. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of volatility, strength, or weakness. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand; the Cyberspace Administration of China strengthened the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures; US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December; the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds were lower than the ChinaBond valuations. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth rate may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73%. COMEX gold and silver prices are also provided. A Fed governor made dovish remarks, and the market expects an 82.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, US stocks rose, and the offshore RMB strengthened. LME copper prices increased, and domestic copper inventories and premiums showed certain changes [11]. - **Strategy**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and downstream demand is strong. Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME and domestic aluminum inventories and premiums changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Global aluminum inventories are low, and supply disruptions support prices. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc index prices decreased slightly. LME and domestic zinc inventories and basis are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore imports decreased in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period. However, in the long - term, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai lead index prices rose slightly. LME and domestic lead inventories and basis are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, while the demand for lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. Spot prices and cost factors are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel - iron price to stabilize [18]. Tin - **Market News**: On November 26, Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal improvement of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, while the futures price of LC2605 decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about off - season demand. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market News**: On November 26, the alumina index decreased. Information on basis, overseas prices, and inventory is provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is over - supplied. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price rose slightly, but the demand is affected by the real - estate market. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated. Information on contract prices, inventory, and demand is provided [26]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, registered warrants, and inventory is provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the export is affected by anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term but may improve with policy implementation [30]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Yesterday, the iron - ore main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and inventory is provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and the demand for iron ore is stable. The overall inventory is high, and the price is expected to oscillate [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the glass main contract price rose slightly. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of glass may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the soda - ash main contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of soda ash is in excess, and the demand is divided. The price is expected to be weak [35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: On November 26, the prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and price trends is provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The market risk appetite has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have decreased. However, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there may be a turning point. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the industrial - silicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [40]. - **Strategy**: The production of industrial silicon is decreasing, and the demand is affected by the polysilicon and organic - silicon industries. The price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the polysilicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [43]. - **Strategy**: The production of polysilicon is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to platform company progress and price feedback [44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Thailand's rubber - producing areas were affected by floods, and the inventory of exchange - traded RU was low. The opinions of bulls and bears are different [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a bullish short - term strategy and partially build positions for hedging [50]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: INE crude - oil futures prices decreased. The inventory of refined oil products in the Fujairah port increased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [52]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract increased. Information on basis and spread is provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea in different regions and the main contract changed. Information on basis and spread is provided [54]. - **Strategy**: The urea price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply is high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price of styrene rose. Information on basis, spread, and supply - demand is provided [56]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the demand is in the seasonal peak. The price may stop falling [57]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC01 contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The EG01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA may increase, and the demand is affected by inventory and the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space [64]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The PX01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The load of PX is high, and the downstream PTA is in maintenance. PX may accumulate inventory in November, and the valuation may be adjusted downward [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PE decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [67]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the seasonal peak [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PP decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal low. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market News**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [74]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has not followed the futures price increase. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal inventory is large [76]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply has decreased, and the import cost has a bottom support. The meal price is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The domestic oil inventory may decrease in the future [78]. - **Strategy**: The high production of palm oil suppresses the price. It is recommended to take an oscillating view and turn bullish if production decreases [79]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The production of sugar in Brazil and India is expected to increase [81]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, and the international sugar price may be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [82]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production is expected to increase [83]. - **Strategy**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [84].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，在玉米现货延续上涨、港口玉米库存下降的双重利多作用影响下，玉米近 月 2601 合约突破创新高，远期跟随上涨。目前，中央储备玉米轮换采购价格继 | | | | 续上涨，现货报价继续走高，期、现报价联动上涨。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏弱运行。山东深加工企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加 | | | | 工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。 | | | | 供应来看，经过前期价格上调，基层农户售粮积极性略有提升，但贸易环节收购 | | | 玉米 | 较为谨慎，目前干粮供应依然较少。需求来看，深加工企业看量调价，库存水平 | 震荡上涨 | | | 维持低位，饲料企业刚需补库为主。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面仍偏 | | | | 强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上量一 | | | | 般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态滚 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-25） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量 3278.4 万吨， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 环比减少 238.0 万吨。47 港外矿到港量大幅回升 569.6 万吨至 2939.5 万吨。日均铁水产量环比回落 0.6 万吨至 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | | | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水 | | | | | 平，内需疲弱难改。港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 | | | | | 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润 | | | | | 再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 率不大，铁矿价格高位偏强震荡为主。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand relationships, while others are influenced by macro - economic policies, geopolitical factors, and cost - related elements [5][9][11]. - In the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures market is expected to rebound, but the performance is differentiated. The bond market lacks driving forces and is expected to be volatile in the short term [18][21][22]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties are in a state of supply - demand balance or slight imbalance, with prices showing different trends such as oscillation, strength, or weakness [24][27][31]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating within a range, and the double - coking market is paying attention to the switching of trading logic. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys are oscillating at the bottom [57][59][62]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are oscillating and waiting for data guidance. Copper prices are supported by the expectation of US interest rate cuts. Other non - ferrous metals also have their own price trends based on supply - demand and cost factors [67][71][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market is expected to rebound, with the strength depending on large - scale technology companies. The performance of different contracts is differentiated, and the trading volume and positions of most contracts have decreased [18][19][20]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [21]. Bond Futures - The bond market lacks driving forces and is expected to be volatile in the short term. The trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased slightly, and the yield of spot bonds has fluctuated slightly [22][23]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips with a small position in the T contract and being cautious about chasing up, and paying attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Supply still has pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market has a pattern of abundant production, and the domestic supply pressure is relatively large [24][26]. - Trading strategies include short - selling a small amount of far - month rapeseed meal contracts, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [27]. Sugar - International sugar prices have risen slightly, and domestic sugar prices are slightly stronger. The global main producing areas are increasing production, but the production in Brazil and India may be lower than expected. The domestic market is affected by factors such as imports and production costs [27][30]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips in the short term, conducting long January and short May arbitrage, and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The market continues to oscillate. The palm oil market has a high inventory and weak exports, but the production is expected to decrease in the future. The soybean oil market follows the overall trend, and the rapeseed oil market is expected to continue to destock [31][34]. - Trading strategies include short - term long - short operations and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is oscillating at a high level. The US corn market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as production areas and price differentials [35][37]. - Trading strategies include short - term long - short operations, conducting cash - and - carry arbitrage on the spread between January corn and starch, and waiting and seeing for options [38]. Live Pigs - The pressure of live pig slaughter continues to increase, and prices continue to decline. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists [38][39]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing, and using the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [41]. Peanuts - Peanut spot prices are stable, and the short - term market is oscillating at the bottom. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut meal is stable. The oil mill has adjusted the purchase price [41][43]. - Trading strategies include short - selling January peanuts on rallies, waiting and seeing for May peanuts, conducting reverse arbitrage on January - May peanuts, and selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The inventory of laying hens is relatively high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [45][48]. - Trading strategies include going long on the January contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [49]. Apples - Demand is average, and apple prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory of apples is increasing, and the sales in the consumer market are in the off - season. The market is affected by factors such as imports and exports [50][53]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. The supply of new cotton is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [54][56]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [56]. Black Metals Steel - Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room for reducing hot metal. The supply - demand relationship of steel is improving, and the cost is supported. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57][58]. - Trading strategies include maintaining an oscillating and slightly strong trend, conducting long - spread trading on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and waiting and seeing for options [59]. Double - Coking - The risk of price decline has been released, and attention should be paid to the switching of trading logic. The coking coal market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and policy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. - Trading strategies include gradually closing short positions, going long on dips after the market stabilizes, conducting reverse arbitrage on January/May coking coal, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62]. Iron Ore - A bearish approach is recommended. The supply of iron ore is relatively loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic terminal steel is expected to remain low. The price is expected to be weak at a high level [62][63]. - Trading strategies include short - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [64]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are oscillating at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are both decreasing, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [64][65]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using the strategy of selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Precious metals are oscillating and waiting for data guidance. The expectation of US interest rate cuts has increased, and the prices of gold and silver have risen slightly. The market is waiting for economic data to provide more clear directions [67][68][69]. - Trading strategies include holding long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [70]. Copper - Copper prices are supported by the expectation of US interest rate cuts. The supply of copper is expected to decrease, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [71][73]. - Trading strategies include holding long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short term, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [74]. Alumina - Substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts. The supply of alumina is relatively stable, and the market is affected by factors such as long - term contracts and new production capacity [75][77]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading and arbitrage [78]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of US interest rate cuts is strengthening, and the price of Shanghai aluminum is stabilizing and rebounding. The supply - demand relationship of aluminum is relatively balanced, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong in the medium term [79][80]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the narrowing of the price difference between East China and Central China in the spot market, and waiting and seeing for options [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - expectation has improved, and the price of aluminum alloy has rebounded with the price of aluminum. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the supply is tight. The price has certain support [81][84]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [84]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is decreasing, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to be lower than expected. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [84][86]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips with a small position, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. Lead - Lead prices are oscillating weakly within a range. The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [90][91]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [91]. Nickel - Production reduction stimulates the rebound of nickel prices, but inventory suppresses the upward space. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as production reduction in Indonesia, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [91][94]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [94]. Stainless Steel - The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebounds following the raw materials. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the cost is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [95][99]. - Trading strategies include short - term rebound trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [98]. Industrial Silicon - Short - term buying on dips is recommended. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in the dry season, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be strong [100][101]. - Trading strategies include holding existing long positions and buying on dips [101]. Polysilicon - Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies. The market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. The price is expected to be volatile [100][102]. - Trading strategies include short - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [103].