热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，CBOT大豆跌至10个月低点，因供应充足。美国农业部1月供需报告上调美豆库存，同时上调巴 西大豆出口及库存。全球大豆供应充足，出口竞争激烈，打压美豆价格。美国农业部周二公布，民间出 口商向中国销售16.8万吨大豆，向墨西哥销售15.24万吨大豆。巴西机构预计，其1月出口373万吨大豆， 高于之前预估的240万吨。国内方面，蛋白粕震荡为主，昨日113万吨进口大豆拍卖全部成交，价格溢价 0-190元/吨。成交火爆，一方面反映市场对3-4月供应仍有担忧，一方面也油厂积极采购，增加市场供 应。此次拍卖可能是年前最后一次，也促使了成交放量。外盘回落打压价格，豆粕震荡偏空思路。策略 上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，BMD棕榈油下跌，因印尼B50生柴掺混政策不确定性影响，但受到竞争植物油走强以及船运数据 乐观限制跌幅。印尼经济统筹部长表示，该国26年是否执行B50取决于原油和毛棕榈油之间的价差。 ...

农产品早报 2026-01-14 【策略观点】 目前原糖价格已经跌破巴西乙醇折算价的支撑，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗制糖比例 的可能性。等待 2 月北半球开始收榨，增产利空基本兑现以后，国际糖价可能会迎来一波反弹。国内当 前进口糖源供应逐步减少，随着糖价跌至低位水平，短线往下空间有限，暂时观望。 棉花 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二郑州白糖期货价格小幅下跌，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5253 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 32 元/吨，或 0.61%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5310-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；云南制糖集团新 糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5800 元/吨，报价较上个交易 日持平。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 57 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 根据印度食品与公 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-14 棉价跌势暂缓，反弹收涨 农业团队 油脂：USDA报告相对偏空，油脂震荡关注宏观 蛋白粕：多空并存，盘面震荡 玉米/淀粉：盘面高位震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价震荡 天然橡胶：延续宏观交易逻辑 合成橡胶：高位震荡运行 棉花：棉价跌势暂缓，反弹收涨 白糖：供应边际增多，糖价整体承压 纸浆：盘面资金表现逆转，纸浆警惕利空增强 双胶纸：商品回调，双胶走弱 原木：主力减仓，盘面震荡 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价跌势暂缓，反弹收涨 逻辑：今年总体来看棉价预计偏强运行，后续预计仍有一定上涨空间，短 期在利多阶段性出尽、资金获利平仓等因素作用下，进入调整期，但中长 线驱动未被证伪，预计调整空间有限。中长线驱动来自两方面，一是 2025/26年度国内预计"紧平衡"，产量虽同比大幅增加，需求也预计增 加，商业库存边际成核心变量，风险在于内外价差持续拉大后外棉及进口 纱放量，表观消费被稀释；二是2026年植补新政策预计导向为缩面积，新 疆面积预期缩减，供给端收缩放大价格弹性。过去一个多月，资金提前押 注"减面积"，仓位持续攀升，推升棉价快速 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：偏强震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 豆粕：美国农业部：2025/26 年度全球大豆前景包括产量增加、压榨量上升、 出口减少以及期末库存增加。全球大豆产量上调 310 万吨，达到 4.257 亿吨，反 映出巴西和美国的产量提高，但中国的产量有所下降。由于生长季高峰期中西部 地区天气有利，巴西大豆产量上调 300 万吨，达到 1.78 亿吨。此外，巴西南部 季初气候良好且降雨充足，也进一步提升了产量预期，尤其是与前几年该地区遭 遇干旱相比。巴西和美国的大豆压榨量及豆粕出口量均有所上调，同时欧盟的大 豆粕进口量也增加。由于进口豆粕供应增加，欧盟的大豆压榨量和大豆进口量被 下调。 市场对于后期抛储时间表仍然不清晰，今天大豆抛储虽然接近 114 万吨，但 是成交量高企，且产生部分溢价，说明市场供应缺口仍存，且需求端短期保持坚 挺。近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合约因为美农报告利空效应保持偏弱走 势，如后续南美丰产进度推进 ，有进一步下行可能。 油脂：贸易机构：印度 12 月棕榈油进口量为 507204 吨，低于 11 月的 632341 吨，印度 12 月葵花籽油进口量 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 13 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：加速上涨 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：如期反弹，但空间可能有限 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力体现 盘面偏回落为主 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡收跌，国内糖价区间震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：usda 报告偏空 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米持续拍卖，现货偏强 7 | | 生猪：供应压力逐步增加 现货回落加深 8 | | 花生：生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：销售进度较快 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：波动较为剧烈，仍需关注基本面变化 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本端推动下，价格震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：地缘政治与政策博弈交织 金银高位高波 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：贵金属行情持续，铂钯高位运行 17 ...

Group 1: Soybean and Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices fell due to the USDA raising the 25/26 U.S. soybean production forecast to 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.252 billion bushels in December, while lowering export estimates to 1.575 billion bushels from 1.635 billion bushels [2][8] - Domestic protein meal market is fluctuating as it awaits supply and demand report guidance, with active spot transactions and strong price support from oil mills and traders [2][8] - National soybean inventory increased while soybean meal inventory decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][8] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices increased due to the realization of previously negative reports and positive export data, with MPOB reporting a 7.58% month-on-month increase in December palm oil inventory to 3.05 million tons, exceeding market expectations [3][9] - January 1-10 palm oil exports increased by 18% to 29.2%, with India showing the most significant increase while China’s imports declined [3][9] - Domestic oil prices rose, with palm oil leading the gains, while canola prices faced pressure due to potential policy changes from Canada [3][9] Group 3: Live Pig Market - Live pig futures for the 2603 contract experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, closing at 11,735 yuan per ton, with the national average price for external three-way pigs at 12.69 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight increase [4][6] - The market remains stable with regional price adjustments, particularly in Henan, where prices slightly decreased [4][6] - The breeding sector is tightening supply, supporting prices ahead of the holiday season, with expectations of a continued decline in production capacity [4][6] Group 4: Egg Market - The main 2603 egg contract saw a decline of 0.66%, closing at 3,020 yuan per 500 kilograms, while the average price for brown-shelled eggs in major production areas rose to 3.32 yuan per jin [10] - Market activity is normal with sufficient supply, indicating a rebound in spot prices despite the current cycle being at a low point [10] - Short-term futures are expected to continue rebounding before a slight correction, with attention on whether the main contract can break through long-term moving averages [10] Group 5: Corn Market - The main 2603 corn contract increased in volume and price, nearing the 2,300 yuan mark, driven by bullish sentiment [11] - The spot market is supported by pre-holiday stocking, although recent snowfall in Northeast China may affect supply [11] - Overall market activity is moderate, with stable prices in the sales regions and a diverse purchasing demand, while the pressure from imported corn and substitutes limits price increases [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

农产品早报 2026-01-13 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一郑州白糖期货价格震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5285 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 3 元/吨，或 0.06%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5310-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨；云南制糖集团 新糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5810 元/吨，报价较上个交 易日持平。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 32 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 根据印度食品与公共分配部(DFPD)发布的通知，政府将在 2026 年 3 月 31 日后审查糖厂的出口表现，并 可能将未使用的配额重新分配给出口表现更好的糖厂或有意愿的糖厂。据巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公 布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月出口食糖 291.3 万吨，较去年同期增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key to the fluctuations in international soybean futures in 2026 lies in China's import orders, which significantly influence global market dynamics and domestic supply chains [1]. Group 1: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global soybean market in 2026 is characterized by "supply looseness but diminishing surplus," with the USDA predicting a global soybean production of 426.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, including a record 175 million tons from Brazil [4]. - Although global soybean stocks appear ample, the market is entering a "diminishing surplus, gradual upward" rebalancing phase, driven by declining supply-side profits and inventory cycle turning points, which will push prices into a gradual upward channel [4]. Group 2: China's Role as a Marginal Buyer - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio has dropped to 11.8%, increasing market sensitivity to incremental buying, with China as the largest marginal buyer whose purchasing pace directly determines the final stock levels [5]. - China's procurement behavior has shown a "switch-like" adjustment capability, exemplified by a complete halt in U.S. soybean imports in September 2025, leading to a zero import volume from the U.S. and a significant increase in imports from Brazil [5][8]. Group 3: Strategic Flexibility in Procurement - In 2026, China's soybean procurement is increasingly driven by strategic flexibility, with policy signals and geopolitical factors influencing purchasing decisions ahead of weather-related disruptions [10]. - China has established a diversified import system focusing on Brazil, supplemented by the U.S. and Argentina, which reduces reliance on a single source and enhances its influence on international soybean prices [13][15]. Group 4: Domestic Market Implications - The fluctuations in the international soybean market will ultimately affect the domestic supply chain, particularly in soybean meal and oil prices, which will be driven by "port arrival rhythm and crushing progress" rather than sudden demand spikes [18]. - If soybean arrivals are insufficient in Q1 2026, domestic soybean meal supply may tighten, potentially raising prices to the range of 2900-3000 yuan per ton, while the arrival of new Brazilian beans in Q2 will be crucial for alleviating supply pressures [18].

2026 年 01 月 12 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 低多思路 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看涨 | | ...