大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 8 月 27 日 公众号二维码 【外盘情况】 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果白糖研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 棉禽研究：王玺圳 期货从业证号： F03118729 投资咨询证号：Z0022817 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.14%至 1065 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.4%至 296.1 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.欧盟委员会：截至 8 月 24 日，欧盟 2025/26 年度大豆进口量为 196 万吨，去 年同期为 213 万吨。2025/26 年度欧盟油菜籽进口量为 39 万吨，而去年同期为 67 万 吨。 2.油世界：巴西大豆出口在 8 月 25 日当周再一次达到 209 万吨的高点，这带动 8 月 1 日以来的累积出口达到 726 万吨。 3.油世界：阿根廷计划于 2026 年 3-5 月期间收获的大豆种植 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-8-27 蛋白粕现货报价持稳，负基差拖累盘面 油脂：美豆优良率好于预期，昨日油脂继续震荡盘整 蛋白粕：现货报价持稳，负基差拖累盘面 玉米/淀粉：逻辑未变，期现维持弱势 生猪：收储扰动情绪，盘面小幅反弹 橡胶：胶价仍有天气炒作可能 合成橡胶：盘面跟随天胶震荡 纸浆：阔叶维持强势，纸浆预计区间运行 棉花：棉价支撑较强，但上涨动力尚不足 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价走跌 原木：估值中性偏低，逢低试多远月 【异动品种】 蛋白粕观点：现货报价持稳，负基差拖累盘面 (1)2025年8月26日,国际大豆贸易升贴水报价:美湾豆245美分/蒲式耳， 周环比变化+20美分/蒲式耳或+8.89%,同比变化0美分/蒲式耳或0%;美西豆 190美分/蒲式耳，周环比变化-9美分/蒲式耳或-4.52%,同比变化-40美分/ 蒲式耳或-17.3913%;南美豆275美分/蒲式耳，环比变化-5美分/蒲式耳或- 1.79%，同比变化15美分/蒲式耳或5.7692%。 (2)2025年8月26日，中国进 口大豆压榨利润均值219.35元/吨，周环比变化+22.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market shows a rotation pattern with mild adjustments, and investors are recommended to take protective and income - earning measures in stock index futures [2][3][4]. - The bond market sentiment continues to warm up, and there are opportunities for short - term light - position buying in Treasury bond futures [5][6]. - Gold prices are strong due to the weakening of the US dollar, and silver prices are affected by industrial products [7][9][10]. - The shipping index shows a downward trend, and the container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile [12][13]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends based on their respective fundamentals, with some being in a state of shock and some having clear directional expectations [14][17][19][22][24][28][31][33][36][40]. - The steel market may have a high - level shock pattern, and there are opportunities for long - position attempts; the iron ore market may rebound, and the coking coal and coke markets can be considered for long - position operations [41][43][44][46][47][50][51][52]. - The price trends of agricultural products vary. The long - term outlook for meal products is positive, the price of live pigs is weakly volatile, the corn price is weakly oscillating, and the sugar price is in a state of high - level or bottom - grinding oscillation [53][56][57][58][59][60][61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market showed a differentiated performance. The main stock index futures contracts also showed differentiation. The policy of "Artificial Intelligence +" was introduced, and there were international trade and tariff news. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options in September to protect long positions and sell out - of - the - money put options in December to obtain time - value income [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank market funds were abundant. It is recommended to buy Treasury bond futures on dips in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold prices strengthened due to the weakening of the US dollar caused by the US tariff threat and the challenge to the "independence" of the Federal Reserve. Silver prices were affected by industrial products. It is recommended to use a bull - spread strategy for gold and hold long positions in silver above $38 [7][9][10]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot quotations of shipping companies are slowly falling, and the shipping index is declining. The global container shipping capacity is increasing, and the demand data shows certain characteristics. The futures are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price increased slightly. The Fed's dovish stance improved the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply and demand showed a "weak reality + stable expectation" state. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 78,500 - 80,500 [14][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price showed a north - south differentiation. The supply was in excess, and the futures price dropped significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 3,000 - 3,300 and consider short - position layout in the medium term [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price was stable. The macro - environment improved, and the demand in the peak season was expected to be verified. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [19][20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price was stable. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand showed marginal improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 20,000 - 20,600 [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price decreased slightly. The supply was loose, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price was stable. The cost was supported, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,400 [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price decreased. The market sentiment was weak, and the supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to wait and see [37][38][40]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price decreased. The cost was less supportive, and the profit decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased in August. It is recommended to try long - position operations [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price decreased. The global shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price was weakly volatile. The supply increased, and the demand decreased in the short term. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips and conduct long - coking - coal and short - coke spreads [47][48][50]. - **Coke**: The futures price was weakly volatile. The seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the eighth - round was proposed. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was in a high - level fluctuation. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips and conduct long - coking - coal and short - coke spreads [51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume changed. The US soybean data showed certain trends, and there were international trade news. The long - term outlook is positive [53][54][56]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price was weakly volatile. The breeding profit decreased, and the average weight increased. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position layout in the far - month 01 contract below 14,000 [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price was weakly volatile. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The short - term is weakly oscillating, and the medium - term supply pressure is significant [59][60]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 15 - 17 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be weakly oscillating [61].

首席点评： 推动科技创新实现产业升级 国务院日前印发《关于深入实施"人工智能 + "行动的意见》。《意见》坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指 导，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，充分发挥我国数据资源丰富、产业体系完备、应用场 景广阔等优势，强化前瞻谋划、系统布局、分业施策、开放共享、安全可控，以科技、产业、消费、民生、治理、全球合 作等领域为重点，深入实施"人工智能 + "行动，涌现一批新基础设施、新技术体系、新产业生态、新就业岗位等，加快培 育发展新质生产力，使全体人民共享人工智能发展成果，更好服务中国式现代化建设。 重点品种：油脂、原油、贵金属 油脂： 夜盘油脂偏弱运行。根据高频数据显示， MPOA 预计马来西亚 8 月 1-20 日棕榈油产量预估较上月同期增加 3.03% ；出口方面， ITS 和 Amspec 分别预计马来西亚 8 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量环比增加 10.9% 和 16.4% 。 8 月马棕出口环比大 增，但印尼与欧盟关于正柴问题出现争端给棕榈油出口前景带来不确定性，油脂短期震荡调整。 贵金属： 金银反弹，上周杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 8 月 26 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果白糖研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 棉禽研究：王玺圳 期货从业证号： F03118729 投资咨询证号：Z0022817 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.47%至 1062.75 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.41%至 293.4 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA：截止 8 月 24 日当周，作物优良率 69%，此前一周为 68%。 2.USDA：截至 2025 年 8 月 21 日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为 382806 吨，前一 周修正后为 502794 吨，初值为 473605 吨。2024 年 8 月 22 日当周，美国大豆出口检 验量为 419563 吨。本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为 49279891 吨 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 表现。与上周相比，本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。周末北港玉米收购价格继续下 调，北港到货已较为有限，目前的收购价逐步向新粮靠拢。深加工收购价格也继 续偏弱，对东北玉米行情也有一定的不利影响。 周末山东地区整体维持偏弱运 行的态势。深加工企业到货量增加，贸易商出货积极，春玉米陆续上量，短期供 周末销区市场玉米价格。技术上，11 月合约成为主力合约，新粮上市的供应压 | 震荡 | | | 周一，玉米主力 2511 合约平开后震荡下行，期价收复前日涨幅，价格延续下行 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 应有所增加。从市场心态来看，市场看跌预期增强，下游企业采购积极性一般。 | | | | 力继续影响市场，玉米期价近月合约领跌、远期合约跟跌，短期急跌释放供应压 | | | | 力。但是，需要注意的是 11 月合约跌至贸易商预期的存粮成本区间，短期关注 | | | | 11 月合约 2150 整数关口的价格表现，警惕急跌后的反弹表现。 | | | 豆粕 | 周一，CBOT 大豆从两 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 表现。与上周相比，本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。周末北港玉米收购价格继续下 调，北港到货已较为有限，目前的收购价逐步向新粮靠拢。深加工收购价格也继 续偏弱，对东北玉米行情也有一定的不利影响。 周末山东地区整体维持偏弱运 行的态势。深加工企业到货量增加，贸易商出货积极，春玉米陆续上量，短期供 | 震荡 | | | 周一，玉米主力 2511 合约平开后震荡下行，期价收复前日涨幅，价格延续下行 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 应有所增加。从市场心态来看，市场看跌预期增强，下游企业采购积极性一般。 | | | | 周末销区市场玉米价格。技术上，11 月合约成为主力合约，新粮上市的供应压 | | | | 力继续影响市场，玉米期价近月合约领跌、远期合约跟跌，短期急跌释放供应压 | | | | 力。但是，需要注意的是 11 月合约跌至贸易商预期的存粮成本区间，短期关注 | | | | 11 月合约 2150 整数关口的价格表现，警惕急跌后的反弹表现。 | | | | 周一，CBOT ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-8-26 原料成本支撑，胶价走势偏强 油脂：马棕8月产量预期环增，昨日油脂震荡盘整 蛋白粕：点价盘托底，盘面高位震荡 玉米/淀粉：情绪偏弱，期现维持弱势 生猪：收储扰动情绪，盘面小幅反弹 橡胶：胶价回归震荡偏强走势 合成橡胶：盘面震荡偏强运行 纸浆：变化不大，区间运行 棉花：配额落地，棉价增仓反弹 白糖：糖价区间震荡 原木：基本面边际好转，逢低试多远月 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：胶价回归震荡偏强走势 信息： （1）青岛保税区人民币泰混14850元/吨，+250，对上一交易日RU 01收盘价非标基差为-1055；国产全乳老胶14950/吨，+250；保税区STR20 现货1840，+35。云南进干胶厂胶水14300，+100；胶块13200，平。 （ 2）8月25日泰国合艾原料市场报价：白片58.33，+0.73；烟片62.3，+0. 75；胶水55.25，+0.25；杯胶49.85，+0.35。 逻辑：昨日胶价回归震荡 偏强走势， 一方面是在上周五美联储降息预期继续升温后，商品整体表 现偏强的带动，另一方面则是自身仍存天气 ...

首席点评：促消费进行时 上海出台楼市新政"组合拳"：符合条件的家庭外环外购房不限套数，成年单 身按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策；绿色建筑公积金贷款额度上浮 15%，公积 金落实"又提又贷"政策；房贷利率层面则不再区分首套和二套房；房产税征 收层面也迎来微调，本地和外地户籍政策口径更为一致。 重点品种：股指、原油、铜 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续大幅上涨，通信和有色板块领涨， 市场成交额 3.18 万亿元。资金方面，8 月 22 日融资余额增加 81.74 亿元至 21401.26 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期， 下半年为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，中 美关税暂停继续延长 90 天，美联储 9 月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产吸 引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，行情延续概率较高，但 需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的中证 500 和中证 1000 指 数更偏进攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利蓝筹成分居多的上 证 50 和沪深 300 则更偏防御，波动较小，但是价格弹性可能相对较弱。 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 ...