热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊 投资咨询证号：Z0021546 近期，美伊局势消息不断，双方正处于"战"与"和"的关键窗口期。一方面，美伊第三轮谈判结束，技术 层面谈判在即；另一方面，双方又各自处于高度战备的状态。在此局面之下，双方的一举一动都牵动着 全球市场的神经。 美伊冲突关键时间线 1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命爆发，推翻巴列维王朝，建立政教合一的伊斯兰共和国，公开反美。同年，数千 名伊朗革命者冲进美国大使馆，扣押52名外交官和平民人质，引发"伊朗人质危机"，1980年美国与伊朗 断交，开启全面制裁。 冲突加剧（1980-2001年） 两伊战争期间，美国暗中支持伊拉克，提供情报、武器和经济援助。1988年，美军舰击落伊朗民航客 机，造成290名平民遇难，进一步激化矛盾。1995年，克林顿签署行政令，全面制裁伊朗，伊朗为对抗 美国压力，重启核计划。 伊核博弈（2002-2015年） 伊朗核设施曝光，美国以伊朗谋求核武器为由，推动联合国安理会实施多轮制裁。2015年，伊核问题六 国（美、英、法、俄、中、德）与伊朗达成《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每 日 早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 27 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：分化进一步加大 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪仍弱，曲线熊陡 5 | | 蛋白粕：天气影响增加 | 盘面高位震荡 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价底部震荡 | 国内糖价略偏强 6 | | 油脂板块：美国生柴扰动，美豆油震荡上涨 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 价格小幅上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低 | 优质苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：钢厂继续检修，钢价压力仍存 14 | | --- | | 双焦：波动较大，但不构成趋势 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：锰矿扰动存不确定性，多单减持 16 | | 金银：多空因素共存，预计维持高位震荡 18 | | --- | ...

金融期货早评 宏观：伊美间接谈判结束，斡旋方称谈判"取得重大进展" 【市场资讯】1）商务部回应近期将举行的第六轮中美经贸磋商。2）伊美间接谈判结束。 伊朗外长称谈判取得良好进展，双方存在分歧，但在某些领域已接近达成共识。双方将在 3 月 2 日举行技术谈判。3）美国上周初请失业金人数为 21.2 万人，预期 21.5 万人，前值 从 20.6 万人修正为 20.8 万人。4）韩国央行维持基准利率在 2.5%不变，理由是经济增长势 头强于预期，强调在房地产市场波动和本币走弱的情况下保持金融稳定。5）日本央行行长 植田和男表示，央行将在 3 月和 4 月的会议上仔细研究数据，以决定是否加息，这为近期 加息留下了可能性。若日本在实现经济和物价预测方面取得进展，央行将继续升息。 【南华观点】当前全球市场缺乏全市场共识的强驱动主线，主要由五大宏观叙事驱动，其 中三大短周期叙事进入冷却观察期，两大长周期叙事持续但无增量。美国最高法院裁定特 朗普 IEEPA 关税非法但短期影响有限，特朗普已通过 122 条款新征 10%关税补位，整体税 率边际变动极小，贸易保护主义的长期不确定性仍未消除。AI 长周期方面，核心逻辑未变， ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

农产品早报 2026-02-27 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 北半球方面，2 月上半月印度产量同比小幅减产，而泰国产量同比小幅增产，二者相互抵消。而目前原 糖价格已经跌至历史低位，且持续贴水巴西乙醇折算价，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗 制糖比例的可能性，不宜过分看空。国内方面，现阶段高库存依然压制糖价，短线延续观望，待北半球 收榨后供应压力缓解，或有反弹的可能性。 棉花 【行情资讯】 （1）据 USDA 数据显示，2 月 5 日至 2 月 12 日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售 10.68 万吨，创 2026 年以来单周新高，累计出口销售 198.99 万吨，同比减少 14.29 万吨；其中当周对中国出口 0.4 万吨，累 计出口 9.79 万吨，同比减少 7.41 万吨。（2）据 Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 6 日当周，纺纱厂开机率 为 60.5%，环比前 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：延续震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 豆粕：作物专家：将巴西 2025/26 年度大豆产量预期调低 100 万吨，降至 1.78 亿吨。产量调低的原因在于巴西中部地区降雨过多，而南里奥格兰德州干 旱。ANEC：2026 年 2 月份巴西豆粕出口量将达到 173 万吨，低于一周前预估的 182 万吨，仍高于 1 月份的 170.8 万吨，也高于 2025 年 2 月份的 150.2 万吨， 创下历史同期最高纪录。预测 2026 年巴西豆粕出口达到 2400 万吨，高于 2025 年的 2325 万吨。 美豆出口延续偏强走势，而巴西二月发运少于预期可能 使得四月到港预期 减少，豆粕出现明显上涨。后续需要关注到港以及国储抛储进程，预估本周延续 偏强震荡行情。 油脂：美国环境保护署将于周三向白宫提交新的生物燃料混合量授权提案， 该规则可能会在 3 月底前最终确定。行业人士称这是一个重要进展，表明这项拖 延已久的指导方针即将最终定稿。市场普遍关注此次提案是否会提高生物柴油和 可再生柴油的目标用量，因为这将对豆油需求和相关价格形成显著支撑。 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wednesday saw continued rises in stock index futures, with the overall market showing an upward trend driven by price - rising themes. The bond market was affected by real - estate policies and showed a complex short - term trend but remained optimistic in the medium - term. In the agricultural products market, factors such as weather and production forecasts influenced prices. The black metal market was affected by policies and demand recovery, with steel prices expected to oscillate. The non - ferrous metal market was influenced by macro and geopolitical factors, with prices showing different trends. The shipping and carbon emission markets were affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The energy and chemical market was affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations, with prices fluctuating [20][24][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rise, with small - cap indexes performing better. Price - rising themes supported the market, and trading volume steadily increased. The trading strategies included going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai was a negative factor for the bond market. In the short - term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium - term, the outlook is relatively optimistic. The trading strategies included a neutral - to - bullish approach for single - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal indexes rose. Weather disturbances in the producing areas affected crop yields, and the domestic soybean market was volatile. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: ICE and London sugar prices were volatile. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, and India's sugar production increase was adjusted downward. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategies included waiting for the international sugar price to break through the previous high, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting put options in the short - term [30][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia's palm oil exports and production decreased in February. The domestic oil inventory was at a moderately high level, and the market was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation, considering reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [36][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: CBOT corn prices rose. The domestic corn market had stable prices in the northeast and falling prices in the north - central region. The inventory situation was complex, and the futures price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included a long - on - dip approach for the outer - market 05 corn, short - selling the 05 corn on rallies, and widening the 05 corn - starch spread [40][41][42]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices were stable overall, with supply pressure remaining. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [43][45]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were stable, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the pk605 - P - 7800 option [47][48][49]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable to slightly falling after the holiday. The trading strategies included short - selling the June contract on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [50][51][52]. - **Apples**: Apple inventory decreased, and high - quality apple prices were firm. The 5 - month contract price was expected to be strong. The trading strategies included going long on dips for the 5 - month contract, long 5 short 10 for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The outer - market cotton price rose. The global cotton supply - demand situation was relatively tight, and the domestic cotton price was expected to rise. The trading strategies included going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated at night. After the holiday, the steel inventory increased, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The trading strategies included oscillating trends, shorting the coil - coal ratio on rallies, and waiting and seeing for options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Australian coking coal prices were inverted, and port coke inventory decreased. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production. The trading strategies included going long on dips for coking coal, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices fell slightly at night. The supply was abundant, and the demand might decline. The trading strategies included a weakening trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys was strongly supported. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: London gold and silver prices rose. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level. The prices of gold and silver were expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options or using a bull call spread strategy [71][72][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium prices oscillated. Geopolitical and macro factors supported precious metals. The trading strategies included going long on platinum on dips, waiting and seeing for palladium, and long platinum short palladium for arbitrage [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The macro environment was favorable for copper consumption, but inventory increases limited the upside. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of northern capacity. The trading strategies included a short - term oscillating - to - strong trend [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price was expected to oscillate strongly. NVIDIA's performance boosted the market, and the supply - demand relationship was supportive. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price was expected to oscillate strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [88]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was expected to be bought on dips after a correction. The macro and fundamental factors influenced the price. The trading strategies included buying on dips after a correction, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [91][92]. - **Lead**: The lead price was expected to oscillate within a range. The market was affected by inventory and demand. The trading strategies included going long on dips with light positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying deep out - of - the - money call options [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was dominated by macro factors. Indonesian policies and demand were the focus. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [96][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price followed the nickel price. The cost was supportive. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage [99][100]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price was affected by the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of short - term long positions [101][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market was bearish fundamentally. Attention should be paid to spot transactions. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [104][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was likely to rise due to supply disruptions. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [107][110]. - **Tin**: The tin price was expected to be strong. NVIDIA's performance boosted demand, and supply factors needed attention. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for options [111][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate of container shipping decreased. The market was affected by the Iran situation and seasonal factors. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation and waiting and seeing [114][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The BDI index rose. The market was influenced by demand recovery and geopolitical factors. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation needed attention. The trading strategies included a positive short - term trend [116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market had sporadic transactions, and the EU carbon market was affected by policies and public opinion. The carbon price in China was expected to be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market was in a tight supply situation. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [121][122]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ might slightly increase production in April. The oil price was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [124][125]. - **Asphalt**: The demand for asphalt had not recovered, and the supply was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on the BU2606 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price was affected by supply and geopolitical factors. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend, going long on the FU2605 contract on dips, and waiting and seeing for options [129][131][132]. - **LPG**: The LPG outer - market was strong. The domestic market was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas market was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The demand risk decreased, but the supply risk remained. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the US HH second - quarter contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [137][138][139]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices were expected to oscillate. The supply - demand situation was gradually improving. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The overseas supply of benzene and styrene was in a vacuum period. The domestic supply was stable. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, reverse arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [143][144][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market had obvious inventory - building pressure. The supply - demand structure was improving, but the inventory was increasing. The trading strategies included range - oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [146][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, narrowing the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips was expected to be tight. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Some propylene supply returned. The market was stable with a weakening trend. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The PPI of plastic products declined for consecutive months. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the L 2605 contract, short - selling the PP 2605 contract on a small scale, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillated. The supply pressure was still there, and the demand was improving. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [160][161]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillated weakly. The supply was high, and the demand was low. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated strongly. The supply was high, and the demand was resilient. The trading strategies included going long on dips, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [166][169][170]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated strongly, but the fundamentals were weak. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [171][172]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillated widely. The international and domestic supply - demand situations were complex. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend [174]. - **Urea**: Urea factories were reluctant to sell. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on dips, paying attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and shorting put options on corrections [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory of pulp restricted the rebound. The market was in a supply - surplus situation. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the SP2605 - P - 5250 option [179][182][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The demand for offset printing paper was average. The market rebound was limited. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [184][185]. - **Logs**: The log market had weak supply and demand. The price was affected by supply and demand and cost. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of lightly going long for aggressive investors, and paying attention to the 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The ANRPC had marginal production cuts. The prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the RU 05 contract, going long on the NR 04 contract on opportunities, and holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread [187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory build - up of domestic automobiles slowed down. The butadiene rubber price fell. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the BR 04 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [190][192].

农产品早报 2026-02-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 （1）分析机构（Hedgepoint Global Markets）预估巴西中南部地区 2026/27 榨季的糖产量为 4050 万吨， 较前一年度持平。其中预估甘蔗产量为 6.3 亿吨，同比增加 0.2 亿吨；甘蔗制糖比为 48.6%，同比减少 2 个百分点。（2）巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 18 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖 的船只数量为 43 艘，此前一周为 53 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 157.7 万吨，此前一周为 183 万吨。 （3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA）发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 2 月 15 日，印度食糖产量已达 2251 万吨，同比增加 274 万吨，其中 2 月上半月产糖 300 万吨，同比减 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米主力 2605 合约增仓上行。春节后开盘首日，玉米增仓上行，期价日 波动幅度加大，期现市场情绪继续好转。现货市场方面，春节期间东北粮点玉米 | 震荡偏强 | | | 收购价格稳中略偏强运行。春节前期货市场表现偏强，对现货市场形成一定的带 | | | | 动。华北地区春节期间玉米价格整体偏强运行。基层玉米购销尚未恢复，大部分 | | | | 粮点正月初八以后陆续开始收购，但农户售粮恢复较慢。下游深加工企业从正月 | | | | 初四开始陆续启动玉米收购，经过春节期间消耗，企业都有补库需求，玉米价格 | | | | 整体呈现偏强表现。整体来看，节后现货市场提价收购，现货补涨，期、现涨价 | | | | 相互呼应，市场情绪转强，获利多单谨慎参与。 | | | 豆粕 | 周二，CBOT 大豆收高，市场对美动荡的关税担忧有所缓解。美豆粕和美豆油跟 随走高。美豆国内强劲需求也支撑市场。巴西大豆完成 32%收割，偏慢。另外， 巴西 2 月大豆出口预计 1069 万吨， ...