1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year, increasing the palm oil blending ratio from 40% to 50%, strengthening the global vegetable oil demand in the biofuel field. Short - term BMD palm oil may still rise. In China, port palm oil inventory is at the second - highest level since 2022, with sufficient supply and weak demand, but import inversion supports the futures market. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 84.7 million acres, with higher soybean inventories, which may suppress the soybean oil market. In China, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and the soybean oil output has reduced, but the trading volume is light. - Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures mainly follow the international market and maintain a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures fell but had a monthly gain. The sugar price was dragged down by the adjustment of energy prices due to the situation in the Middle - East. Brazil has canceled the industrial product tax on diesel, and the sugar price may fluctuate with oil prices in the short term. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic sugar market has strong supply and weak demand, and the sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. 2.3 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell due to the expected increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026. In China, the upward space of cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, and the inventory - clearing rhythm has slowed down. However, the downstream product inventory is at a low level, which supports the cotton price. Future focus should be on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The performance of production areas was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi was firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong were under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas for the far - month contracts [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast, the warming temperature increases the willingness of grain - holders to sell, but the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders limit the decline. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holders are reluctant to sell. The demand side has a weakening marginal demand in the north port, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and a slow procurement rhythm. The feed enterprises have rigid demand, and wheat substitution is increasing. The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly, but the policy grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area was slightly lower than market expectations, and the US soybean futures rose slightly. In China, the soybean meal market has cooled down, and the spot trading volume has decreased. The overall inventory is not loose, but the market sentiment is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig price has shown a weak trend again. The second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have limited support for the price. The breeding side is still resistant, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures price has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by the expected capacity pressure. The short - term price may be boosted by the second - fattening sentiment, but the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and a weak trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.22% to 9000 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.53% to 8668 yuan. The basis was 05 + 320, down 10 points. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.65% to 9855 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.64% to 9930 yuan. The basis was P2605 - 11, down 11 points. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21% to 10282 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.07% to 9884 yuan. The basis was OI605 + 398, down 15 points [1]. 3.1.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand - Palm oil: The inventory in Chinese ports is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient. The production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase, and the domestic oil mill operating rate has decreased, with reduced output but light trading volume. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's policy, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry 3.2.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.79% to 2388 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.66% to 5431 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5450 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5295 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning increased by 33.33%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 11.21% [2]. 3.2.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926 million tons, and the sales volume decreased by 27.39% to 345 million tons. The production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 million tons, and the monthly sales volume increased by 20.16% to 162.23 million tons. The national sugar sales rate decreased by 23.72% to 37.30%, and the sales rate in Guangxi decreased by 24.60% to 35.25%. The national industrial inventory increased by 17.03% to 581 million tons [2]. 3.3 Cotton Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.65% to 15295 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.64% to 15430 yuan/ton. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 16691 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 16820 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 100% to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 million tons, the import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 million tons. The yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2% to 21.45 days, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 0.3% to 33.24 days. The textile enterprise's processing profit decreased by 1.3% to - 2255 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.28% to 8750 yuan/ton, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.39% to 8925 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 0.55% to 9110 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.22% to 9060 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4.2 Industry Situation - The market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 0.09% to 4400 [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.38% to 9826 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.23% to 8743 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price performance in different production areas is differentiated, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 million tons [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Corn: The price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.21% to 2351 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.38% to - 29 yuan/ton. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.29% to 2745 yuan, and the basis decreased by 3.96% to 218 yuan [8]. 3.6.2 Industry Situation - In the northeast, the supply and demand situation is affected by the temperature and the attitude of grain - holders. In North China, the price is stable due to the reluctance of grain - holders to sell. The demand side has different situations in different sectors [8]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3240 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.75% to 2915 yuan. The basis increased by 7.26% to 325 yuan. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.79% to 2520 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.91% to 2299 yuan. The basis increased by 0.45% to 221 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Industry Situation - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area affected the market. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the future supply pressure will increase [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of the main contract of pigs decreased by 2.35% to 9770 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased by 9.43% to - 960 yuan/ton. - Spot: The prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Shandong increasing by 50 yuan to 9900 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.2 Industry Situation - The pig price is weak, and the capacity reduction is slow. The second - fattening sentiment may support the price, but the feed price is high [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry 3.9.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of egg 04 decreased by 2.11% to 3200 yuan/500KG, and the price of egg 05 decreased by 0.38% to 3440 yuan/500KG. - Spot: The egg price in the production area decreased by 2.72% to 3.35 yuan/jin [15]. 3.9.2 Industry Situation - The supply is stable, and the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to be weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillatory and slightly weak trend in the short term, with limited downward price space. Policy and macro factors are in a game, and short - selling can be considered in the short term. Pay attention to weather, selling rhythm, and policy grain release [1]. - Soybean meal is in an oscillatory state. The cost is the main factor, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Oils are in an oscillatory state with an upward - shifted oscillatory range. Short - long participation is recommended [2]. - Eggs are in an oscillatory state. The price is supported by cost, with a lifted bottom. Short - term trading is recommended, and follow - up inventory data and prices of surrounding commodities should be monitored [2]. - Pigs are in an oscillatory state. Before the supply pressure is effectively relieved, the price is likely to remain weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost and prices of surrounding commodities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn oscillated. The May contract decreased in price with reduced positions. The northeast corn price continued to decline slightly, and the market atmosphere weakened. The supply in the market is relatively sufficient in the short term, but the downward price space is limited. The price will continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term. Pay attention to weather, selling rhythm, and policy grain release. The price in the sales area is generally weak [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to lower - than - expected planting area. The domestic protein meal oscillated downward, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The rising import cost helps to push up the price of protein meal. The decline in pig prices and the acceleration of breeding capacity reduction are not conducive to soybean meal consumption. The spot trading is sluggish, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose. Indonesia will implement the B50 policy from July 1. The March export data is good. The domestic oil market rose accordingly. The import cost is the main factor driving the price. The spot price oscillates, and the soybean - palm oil price difference exceeds 1000 yuan/ton, which restrains palm oil consumption. The expected decrease in soybean crushing volume will lead to a decline in soybean oil inventory, and the spot basis is strong. Palm oil is stronger than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - long participation is recommended [2]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main egg futures contract 2605 oscillated and closed down 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The egg - laying hen inventory increased in March, and the supply still exerts pressure on the price. The price is supported by cost, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, pig futures continued to weaken. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The slaughter volume is average, and the second - fattening replenishment is cautious, which has limited support for the price. Before the supply pressure is relieved, the price is likely to remain weak [2]. Market Information - Trump said the US may end the war with Iran in two to three weeks [3]. - Iran's President said Iran has no intention to start a war and is willing to end it under certain conditions [3]. - China's three ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system and the B50 bio - fuel policy from July 1 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [3]. - The predicted US soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation; the wheat planting area is 43.775 million acres, also lower than the expectation [4]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The steel industry PMI in March was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [4]. - Some glass production lines are planned for cold repair or stopped operation [4]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2026 [4]. - The global battery energy storage cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase by 8 - 17 times from 2024 to 2035 [5]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while crude oil futures mainly declined [5]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][9][10][14][15][17][21][22] Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience [25]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many awards [25]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with relevant research experience and honors [25].

1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Fats and Oils - Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year and the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production in March may drive up BMD palm oil prices. However, China's port palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The import is still at a loss, which supports the futures market. For soybean oil, the expected increase in the US soybean planting area and inventory may suppress the market, while the domestic oil mill's开机率 is decreasing, and the inventory is mixed. For rapeseed oil, affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil mainly follows the international market and maintains a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen back from their five - month high, and the sugar price is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and fuel policies in Brazil. In the domestic market, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The current supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the sugar price is supported by the futures price. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. Cotton - The increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026 has led to a decline in ICE cotton futures. The upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is coming to an end, and the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly. The inventory removal rhythm of yarn has slowed down, and the raw material replenishment of enterprises is cautious. However, the low inventory of downstream products supports the bottom of cotton prices. Future attention should be paid to downstream orders, new - year planting areas, and weather conditions [3]. Red Dates - The jujube production areas are in the dormant period, and the market is in the off - season. The purchase and sales in the main sales areas are light, the price is loose, the consumer demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will maintain a low - level shock operation. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. Apples - The pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The performance of production areas is divided. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi is firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and it is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main production areas on the far - month contracts [5]. Corn - In the corn market, the temperature in the Northeast has warmed up, and the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell has increased, but the decline is limited due to the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holding entities are reluctant to sell. On the demand side, the inventory in the northern port has been replenished, and the demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased but is still low, and the feed enterprises purchase on a rigid basis, with an increasing substitution of wheat. The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market stabilizes and rebounds slightly, but the policy - related grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. Meal - After the USDA released the US soybean planting area report, the US soybean planting area was increased but slightly lower than market expectations, and the market was boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal market has already factored in concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity, and the sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading has declined. Although the overall short - term inventory is not loose, the capital speculation is weak, and the pig price is weak, so the soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. Pigs - The pig price has shown a weakening trend again after a brief stabilization. Secondary fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have some support for the price, but the space is limited. The breeding side still resists price cuts, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures market has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by concerns about over - capacity. Currently, the capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment is low. Although the short - term market may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation. The futures market may continue to decline under capacity pressure [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, as the pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking ends, the demand support weakens, and the shipment speed in some production areas slows down. The overall egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and weakening trend [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On March 31, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 9000 yuan, with a 0.22% increase; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 160 yuan to 9855 yuan, with a 1.65% increase; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 10282 yuan, with a 0.21% decrease [1]. - **Inventory and Basis**: The inventory and basis of various oils have changed. For example, the soybean oil basis increased by 24.81%, and the palm oil basis decreased by 0.64% [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different varieties and different periods of oils have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 19.58%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil 2605 spread increased by 3.31% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 was 5438 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan, a 0.79% decrease; the price of sugar 2609 was 5431 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan, a 0.66% decrease [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis of Nanning and Kunming increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import increased significantly [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 was 15295 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan, a 0.65% decrease; the price of cotton 2609 was 15430 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan, a 0.64% decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the spread between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the inventory of yarn and grey cloth changed slightly. The retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, but the export volume decreased [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of jujube 2605 was 8750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, a 0.28% decrease; the price of jujube 2607 was 8925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, a 0.39% decrease; the price of jujube 2609 was 9110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a 0.55% decrease [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujubes changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased slightly, with a total of 4400 as of March 31, equivalent to 22,000 tons of jujubes [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of apple 2605 was 9826 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan, a 0.38% decrease; the price of apple 2610 was 8743 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a 0.23% decrease [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different production areas showed different trends, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the arrival volume in some fruit markets increased [5]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a 0.21% increase; the price of corn starch 2605 was 2745 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, a 0.29% increase [8]. - **Spot Market**: The market price in Shekou Port remained unchanged, and the north - south trade profit remained stable [8]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong decreased, and the overall supply - demand situation was affected by factors such as the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell and the demand of downstream enterprises [8]. Meal - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of soybean meal M2605 was 2915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan, a 0.75% decrease; the price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2299 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a 0.91% decrease [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased slightly [10]. - **Spread and Profit**: The spreads between different varieties and different periods of meal and the oil - meal ratio changed slightly, and the import crushing profit decreased [10]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of live - pig 2605 was 9770 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan, a 2.35% decrease; the price of live - pig 2607 was 10730 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The slaughter volume increased, the prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of egg 04 contract was 3200 yuan/500KG, down 69 yuan, a 2.11% decrease; the price of egg 05 contract was 3440 yuan/500KG, down 13 yuan, a 0.38% decrease [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased, and the basis decreased significantly [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased, the price of culled chickens decreased, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President has signaled a cease - fire, and there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to ending the war through negotiation. Crude oil prices have fallen, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased significantly. Domestically, China's PMI improved significantly in March, the economy exceeded expectations, exports were much better than expected, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The short - term domestic economic situation is better than expected, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term; government bonds will be in a short - term shock; in the commodity sector, black metals may weaken in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, energy and chemical products may be strong in the short term, and precious metals may rebound in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's cease - fire signal and Iran's potential for negotiation led to a drop in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, and a significant increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy and inflation in March were better than expected. The government work report set 2026 development targets and policies. The short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. [2][3] - Asset operation suggestions: short - term cautious observation for stock indices and government bonds; short - term cautious observation for black metals; short - term cautious observation for non - ferrous metals; short - term cautious long for energy and chemical products; short - term cautious long for precious metals. [2] Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and energy metals, the domestic stock market declined. However, the economic fundamentals in March were better than expected, and the short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. With the hope of an end to the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold and silver rebounded. Precious metals are in a state of significant short - term shock and short - term rebound. Short - term cautious long is recommended. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined on Tuesday, and the market volume was low. The steel market follows energy prices, and the decline in coking coal prices has led to further weakness. The real - world demand has improved slightly, but the apparent consumption of the five major steel products still shows a downward trend year - on - year. The steel production of the five major varieties decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron production increased slightly. There is a risk of a phased correction in April. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Tuesday. The previous price increase was supported by energy prices and price negotiation news. The demand for iron ore remains resilient as molten iron production has increased, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is around 43%. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 6.71 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 2.113 million tons. The problem of supply - demand mismatch is gradually being resolved. The room for further price increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the weakening of energy prices. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Tuesday, while the decline in the futures prices widened. The prices follow energy prices. The cost increase has led to some factory production cuts. The inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese is at a low level, and the overall production cost is supported. The futures prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - shock mindset. [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventories. After the replenishment, the inventory decline rate is expected to slow down. The copper market supply is loose, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts the inventory decline. The current inventory is still at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. [7] - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly. The domestic aluminum supply remains high. [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically the same as last week, at 214,000 tons, and is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in the southern region have rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting production remains at a relatively high level, and overseas smelting production will recover in 2026. The demand is not optimistic. [8][9] - **Lead**: The decline in domestic lead ingot inventory has stopped, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and the demand is in the off - season. The import volume of refined and crude lead has increased significantly. [9] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy is changeable. The core contradiction lies in the mining end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and there are risks in MHP supply. Nickel prices have support at the bottom, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad. [10] - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar has increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand in the semiconductor industry is good, but other industries are not performing well, and the overall demand is not good. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, and the LME inventory has decreased. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell significantly on Tuesday. The decline is mainly due to the rumored news of the opening of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, with both supply and demand booming, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Tuesday. The supply and demand are weak, the production capacity is excessive, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is recommended to operate within an interval, paying attention to the cost support at the bottom. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell on Tuesday. The price has returned to the cost - based pricing, and the inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran and the US have signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict, leading to a narrowing of the risk premium and a decline in oil prices. However, the market is still worried about the impact on the global energy system. The average gasoline price in the US has exceeded $4 per gallon, posing a political risk to the Trump administration. Oil prices will remain at a high - central and high - volatility level in the short term. [14] - **Asphalt**: As oil prices decline, asphalt is likely to follow. There are short - term supply problems, and seasonal demand will increase, driving inventory depletion. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is limited, and the new contract price is expected to rise significantly after April, supporting the market bottom. The absolute price will continue to fluctuate significantly with crude oil. [14] - **PX**: The shortage of naphtha continues, and overseas PX prices remain strong. With the increase in domestic PX plant maintenance plans, the PX price is expected to remain strong, but the upside may be limited by the increase in PTA plant maintenance plans. [15] - **PTA**: In the peak season, terminal orders and开工 are lower than in previous years, and the negative feedback continues. The PTA cost is still supported, but the downstream filament production reduction has increased. The PTA basis has rebounded slightly, and the negative feedback restricts the price increase. PTA is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by export expectations, ethylene glycol prices rose, but after the decline in oil prices, inventory pressure was reflected in the futures price. Overseas supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the price will remain high - volatile. Attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback. [15] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the high - volatility of crude oil prices and negative feedback in the polyester sector, short - fiber prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, following PTA and other varieties. [16][17] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is strong, and the port basis is strengthening. Affected by the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the energy and chemical futures market has declined. However, due to the obstruction of Iranian exports and unstable Middle East plants, the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The domestic demand is warming up in the peak season, and the spot is in short supply. The market is strong, but the volatility has increased significantly. [17] - **PP**: The market price has declined. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is increasing, providing support for the price. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the situation of the cease - fire talks. [18] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory is depleting rapidly. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but there is inventory pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are the key variables for external supply. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Affected by external positive factors, the futures market has strengthened, boosting the spot market sentiment. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still in place, and the industrial demand is supporting the market. The export is tightening, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT July soybean contract closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst's estimate. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans for domestic oil mills in April are balanced, and the inventory is loose. The basis is under seasonal pressure. The far - month oil mill crushing profit supports more purchases of soybeans, and the future supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, as the import of rapeseed increases in the far - month, the supply concern fades, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal widens. It will follow the soybean meal's shock adjustment. [20] - **Oils**: The overnight BMD palm oil closed higher. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran cease - fire intention has put pressure on the vegetable oil premium. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is stable, and the demand is weak. Palm oil exports from Malaysia are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Palm oil will maintain a high - level shock. [21] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, but the market atmosphere is not high. Traders are more willing to sell, and the inventory of downstream deep - processing enterprises is accumulating. The feed enterprises are using more imported and policy - auctioned grains, and the acceptance of high - price corn is decreasing. The unconfirmed news of brown rice auction in early April may limit the corn price. [21] - **Pigs**: The average weight of pigs is increasing, and small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, while large - scale farms are increasing the supply with a slight weight reduction. The short - term breeding profit is in a loss, and the policy is guiding weight reduction and production reduction. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - month contract, while the long - term contract has stronger support. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and the unstable international oil price, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar being mainly driven by the increase in crude oil prices, the view on the sugar price trend is changed to a wait - and - see stance [5]. - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the year - on - year increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. The risk lies in the spillover of the US - Iran incident leading to a global financial crisis [8]. - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has large fluctuations recently, lacking certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11]. - For oils, the current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, the crude oil price remains high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, so a bullish view on oils is maintained in the medium term [14]. - For eggs, the overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens leads to a shortage of small eggs. Driven by seasonal stocking, the spot price is relatively strong, but the short - term upside space is also limited. The near - term futures contracts follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Pay attention to the rebound rhythm, be aware of the pressure on the spot and futures prices, hold short positions in the far - end contracts, and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17]. - For hogs, the slaughter scale is relatively large and the weight is still increasing. The improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as the active storage of frozen products and the concentrated entry of second - fattening hogs to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price trend is still weak. The futures contracts are still at a high premium, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - term volatility increases. The overall idea is still to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, attention should be paid to timely realizing profits [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - In the first half of March, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil used 95.14% of sugarcane for ethanol production, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year [4]. - Consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and the sugar production will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. - From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each month compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons [4]. - As of February, the cumulative sugar production in China was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the single - month sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season had reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons due to the lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand [4]. Strategy Viewpoint In the current situation where crude oil maintains a high - risk premium, the view on the sugar price trend is changed to a wait - and - see stance [5]. Cotton Market Information - Trump publicly announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China and the US are in communication about this, without confirming or denying the specific dates [6]. - From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 tons of processing trade import quotas with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota [6]. - From March 12 to 19, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; among them, the export to China that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons [6]. - As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [6]. - The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; the export forecast remained the same, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, unchanged. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; and China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [6][7]. Strategy Viewpoint Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the year - on - year increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. The risk lies in the spillover of the US - Iran incident leading to a global financial crisis [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - Trump publicly announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China and the US are in communication about this, without confirming or denying the specific dates [10]. - From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China that week was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons [10]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 18.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.99 million tons; and the sample soybean port inventory was 4.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.27 million tons [10]. - The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from the February forecast and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous season. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; the Brazilian production forecast was 180 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; the Argentine production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In addition, the US export volume forecast in the March forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has large fluctuations recently, lacking certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11]. Oils Market Information - The President of Indonesia said that the country will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year [13]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the total compliance obligation for biofuels in 2026 at 26.81 billion RINs and in 2027 at 27.02 billion RINs, and required large refineries to bear 70% of the exemption quota [13]. - The President of Indonesia said that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives production enterprises in Indonesia shall not export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security [13]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [13]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - According to MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons year - on - year [13]. - As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year [13]. - In the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [13]. Strategy Viewpoint The current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, the crude oil price remains high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, so a bullish view on oils is maintained in the medium term [14]. Eggs Market Information Yesterday, most egg prices in China fell. The average price in the main producing areas dropped by 0.08 yuan to 3.31 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.15 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao dropped by 0.04 yuan to 3 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the market sales speed mostly slowed down, and industry players mostly held a conservative wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the egg prices in China may be stable in some areas and decline in some areas in the short term [16]. Strategy Viewpoint The overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens leads to a shortage of small eggs. Driven by seasonal stocking, the spot price is relatively strong, but the short - term upside space is also limited. The near - term futures contracts follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Pay attention to the rebound rhythm, be aware of the pressure on the spot and futures prices, hold short positions in the far - end contracts, and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17]. Hogs Market Information Yesterday, the mainstream hog prices in China fell, with some local areas rising slightly. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.01 yuan to 9.53 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan rose by 0.05 yuan to 9.31 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou rose by 0.08 yuan to 8.77 yuan per kilogram. The overall market supply was abundant, the mentality of second - fattening hog farmers was cautious, and the purchasing sentiment cooled down, providing limited support for hog prices. It is expected that the hog prices will be mainly stable with a weak trend today [19]. Strategy Viewpoint The slaughter scale is relatively large and the weight is still increasing. The improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as the active storage of frozen products and the concentrated entry of second - fattening hogs to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price trend is still weak. The futures contracts are still at a high premium, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - term volatility increases. The overall idea is still to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, attention should be paid to timely realizing profits [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, due to the recovery of MPOA production and concerns about the slowdown in export growth, there is a risk of the crude palm oil futures stalling and falling around 4,800 ringgit. Domestically, with the strong performance of international crude oil futures, attention should be paid to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can effectively break through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - For soybean oil, the Trump administration's order to increase the proportion of bio - fuels in gasoline and diesel in the US provides short - term upward momentum for CBOT soybean oil. In China, the plan of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel project and the decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory due to lower factory operating rates support the futures market, but the weak procurement and stable basis quotes show a mixed situation [1]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, market rumors of the second batch of Australian seed crushing commercial pilot opening and the increase in the proportion of palm - oil - blended diesel in Indonesia from 40% to 50% in 2026 have boosted the market. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is in a wide - range shock around 9,800 yuan, with the upper pressure at 10,000 yuan. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state [1]. 2.2 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose, reaching a six - month high, supported by the overall optimistic sentiment in CBOT grain futures, crude oil, and the stock market. In the Mississippi Delta, farmers may switch to more profitable soybeans due to low cotton prices and high input costs, and the cotton planting area may reach a ten - year low. The market estimates the planting area to be 9.229 million acres, lower than the previous expectation. In China, the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference limits the upside of domestic cotton. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, slower yarn de - stocking, and some mills reducing their operating rates. The "Silver April" order sustainability is uncertain, but the low downstream inventory provides support for cotton prices [2]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower after reaching a five - month high. A moderate correction is expected after the 18% increase since early March. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has the flexibility to adjust sugar production. Before the geopolitical situation eases, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is supported by futures, expected to remain high and volatile [4]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the consumption off - season, with light trading in the main sales areas. The prices are weakening, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory pressure is evident, and the futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The short - term futures price is expected to remain low and volatile [6]. 2.5 Apples - The apple spot market shows a differentiated trend, with good - quality apples having firm prices and ordinary apples facing de - stocking pressure. The downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The market sentiment has weakened due to capital withdrawal. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main producing areas on the far - month contracts [7][11]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch - The current grain sales progress is slower than last year. With the warming temperature and the decline in futures prices, the enthusiasm of grain - holding entities to sell has increased. The continuous release of policy wheat and the expected auction of directional rice have weakened the bullish sentiment, and the price is under pressure. However, the price decline may be limited due to the strong price - holding attitude of traders. On the demand side, the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still low, and feed enterprises have rigid demand for corn, with an increasing substitution of wheat. In general, the short - term corn price is weak, but the limited remaining grain and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises support the price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the directional rice release [15]. 2.7 Meal - US soybeans find support around 1,160 cents but lack upward momentum. After the bio - diesel policy is implemented, funds take profits. The crude oil price fluctuates due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. In China, the concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity in the soybean meal market have been fully priced in, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading volume has declined recently. Although the overall inventory is still not loose, the speculation sentiment is weak. There is a bearish expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is relatively limited [17]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices show signs of stabilizing. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening in the north has increased significantly, while the south is still observing, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. The 05 contract of the futures market rebounded, but the far - month contracts are worried about the slow weight reduction and the decline in piglet prices. The current capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish piglets is lower than last year. Although the short - term market price may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation of the support for secondary fattening sentiment. The 05 contract may have bottomed out, but the far - month contracts may decline further under capacity pressure [19]. 2.9 Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled by the breeding industry is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply remains stable due to the high inventory of laying hens, the increase in newly - laid hens, and the resumption of laying by molting hens. On the demand side, as the Qingming Festival stocking comes to an end, the demand support weakens, the shipment speed in some production areas slows down, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing. The overall egg market transaction is mediocre, and the egg price is expected to remain low and volatile [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, the price of Y2605 soybean oil futures was 8,714 yuan, up 0.30% from March 27; the price of P2605 palm oil futures was 9,768 yuan, up 1.66%; the price of OI605 rapeseed oil futures was 9,891 yuan, up 0.14% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,980 yuan, down 0.11% from March 27; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,930 yuan, up 0.36%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,304 yuan, down 0.02% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Y2605 soybean oil was - 36 yuan; the basis of P2605 palm oil was - 235 yuan; the basis of OI605 rapeseed oil was 413 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons, the inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2072 million tons, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants was not clearly stated [1]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,385 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,515 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, down 4.00%. The main contract's open interest was 515,084 lots, down 3.03%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,435, up 0.01%, and the valid forecasts were 371, up 9.44% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 0.05%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,489 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0.00 million tons, down 100.0% from the previous value; the industrial inventory was 102.40 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 16.65 million tons, down 19.0%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 million tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning mill C32s immediate processing profit was - 2,225.30 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.10 billion yuan, up 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60, down 82.9%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,441 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,467 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 13.04%. The main contract's open interest was 304,083 lots, down 2.81%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,862, up 3.18%, and the valid forecasts were 0, down 100.00% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the price in Kunming was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 550.00%; the Kunming basis was - 116 yuan/ton, up 16.55%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,364 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%; the sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, up 1100.00%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons [4]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of jujube 2605 (main contract) was 8,775 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous value; the price of jujube 2607 was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the price of jujube 2609 was 9,160 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 42.31%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 385 yuan/ton, down 10.00%. The open interest was 165,841 lots, down 1.70%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,273, unchanged; the valid forecasts were 131, up 43.96%; the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,404, up 0.92% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; the price of first - grade jujubes was 7,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - grade jujubes was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes to the main contract was - 295 yuan/ton, up 20.27%; the basis of first - grade jujubes to the main contract was 325 yuan/ton, up 41.30% [6]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous value; the price of apple 2610 was 8,763 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33%. The open interest was 81,103 lots, down 7.24% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 25 vehicles, up 13.64%; the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 11 vehicles, unchanged; the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 14 vehicles, up 7.69%. The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 5.69% [7]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On March 31, the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous value; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 209.09%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6.67%. The market price at Shekou Port was 2,480 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 9 yuan, down 68.97%. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2,366 yuan/ton, down 1.20%. The import profit was 114 yuan, up 19.70%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 891, down 32.55%. The trading volume was 2,032,676 lots, down 1.04%. The number of warehouse receipts was 58,377, down 1.68% [15]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value; the average price of corn starch was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, up 7.08%. The spot price in Weifang was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the spot price in Changchun was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 33.33%. The 05 spread between starch and corn on the disk was 391 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The Shandong starch profit was 13 yuan, up 85.71%. The open interest was 386,073 lots, up 0.23%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,510, down 3.01% [15]. 3.7 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,240 yuan, unchanged. The price of M2605 futures was 2,937 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 was 303 yuan,