Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal strong divisions among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with increasing concerns that progress on inflation has stalled [2][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in the previous meeting, marking the second consecutive cut, with a 10-2 vote [3]. - Chairman Powell indicated that a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion" [3]. - Many officials expressed opposition to further cuts, fearing that the 2% inflation target progress has stagnated, which could lead to rising long-term inflation expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - Officials are concerned about the uncertainty in the economic outlook, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting economic assessments [4]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 will determine the future interest rate policy [5]. Challenges Faced by the Fed - The Fed is currently facing multiple challenges, including interruptions in official data releases and conflicting signals from existing information [6]. - The absence of employment data prior to the next meeting adds to the uncertainty regarding monetary policy decisions [6]. Market Expectations - Investor expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased from over 90% to 32.8% [2][6]. - Macro strategist Boris Schlossberg noted that unless there are significant changes in the economic landscape, the likelihood of a rate cut in December is diminishing [7].

2025.11. 20 本文字数：1478，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（20日）凌晨，美联储公布今年10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，美联储官员就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员认为通胀下降的进展 已陷入停滞，可能对继续宽松持谨慎的观点。 截至记者发稿时，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，12月10日降息概率跌至32.8%，较1个 月前的超90%大幅回落。 分歧巨大 官员们在会议中积极寻求折中方案：既要应对数据缺失的问题，又要权衡通胀上升与就业市场下滑的 双重风险，甚至警惕若市场对人工智能相关投资 "重新评估"，可能引发股市无序下跌的情况。 美联储就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员担忧通胀下降的进展。 许多美联储官 员明确表示，希望美联储在12月维持利率稳定。这些官员称，进一步降息可能会增加高通胀黏性的 风险，还可能被误解为美联储对2%通胀目标的承诺不足。 与此同时，"多数"官员表示，利率可能会随着时间推移走低，但其中 "多位"官员称，他们不一定认为 12月降息是合适的。部分官员表示将等待数据出炉后再决定 ...