Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in alumina prices is attributed to factors such as the announcement of a national bauxite index in Guinea, seasonal impacts on bauxite shipments, and a low inventory of alumina warehouse stocks, leading to increased market sentiment and potential price support [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Alumina prices have rebounded significantly, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high, primarily driven by the "anti-involution trading" sentiment and low warehouse inventory levels [2][3]. - Guinea's rainy season is beginning to affect bauxite shipments, with weekly export volumes showing a slight decline, indicating potential supply constraints in the near future [4][5]. - The overall industry inventory remains low, with alumina warehouse stocks dropping to below 20,000 tons, which raises concerns about delivery shortages [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The cost side, particularly from the mining sector, is expected to provide support for alumina prices as supply-demand dynamics shift from surplus to a potential deficit in the latter half of the year [5]. - Current domestic alumina production capacity exceeds 11 million tons, but operational capacity has slightly decreased due to routine maintenance, with a current operating rate of 79.97% [6]. - Future production increases are anticipated from new projects and restarts, with expectations of imported alumina arriving in July, contributing to overall supply growth [6]. Group 3: Price Projections - Short-term price increases for alumina are supported by positive mining expectations and low warehouse stocks, but there are still pressures from ongoing inventory accumulation and potential profit-taking from imports [7]. - The market sentiment suggests limited upward price movement due to global oversupply conditions, although the risk of significant price drops is also considered low due to the current market dynamics [7].