代工业务复苏
Search documents
存储之王回归?大摩:三星HBM业务已实现全面赶超,2026年盈利或暴增150%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-24 06:23
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Samsung Electronics is regaining dominance in the memory market with its "technology-first" strategy, projecting a more than 150% increase in earnings per share from 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Samsung has achieved comprehensive catch-up in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sector, with HBM3e products already shipped to all AI computing customers, and HBM4 products undergoing multiple qualification tests [1] - Unlike competitors, Samsung does not need to modify design requirements, maintaining a leading edge in product quality and specifications due to its 1c DDR5 front-end technology and 4nm logic base die [1] - Samsung's unique advantage in the high-speed 11 Gbps sector and its end-to-end solution capabilities from DRAM to foundry to packaging are expected to significantly enhance its market share [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Demand - Samsung currently possesses an effective DRAM production capacity of 500,000 wafers per month, far exceeding competitors, with total capacity around 650,000 wafers per month [1] - The DRAM order fulfillment rate has dropped to about 70% of customer demand, indicating visibility extending into the first half of 2026 [1] - Samsung's management has adopted a more rational strategy, focusing on sustainable profitability through collaboration with key customers based on actual demand [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley projects Samsung's earnings per share to reach 14,464 KRW in 2026, nearly 50% higher than the current market consensus of 9,800 KRW [4] - The anticipated earnings growth is expected to improve the price-to-earnings ratio multiples [4] - The market may be unprepared for specific positive developments at Samsung, which could act as catalysts for stock price increases [4]