供给短缺持续下存储行业预测上调及重点标的推荐 在供给短缺持续的背景下，上调存储行业预测，强烈推荐香农芯创，预计至少具备三倍以上上涨空间，该股已 调入 MSCI 指数，给予强烈推荐评级。 大摩认为，自美光发布业绩指引以来，内存产品定价已经出现显著上移，而且供应短缺并非局限在单一终端领 域，而是覆盖几乎所有下游应用场景，因此上调相关企业盈利预测。 在大摩的分析框架下，只要 供给短缺持续下存储行业预测上调及重点标的推荐 在供给短缺持续的背景下，上调存储行业预测，强烈推荐香农芯创，预计至少具备三倍以上上涨空间，该股已 调入 MSCI 指数，给予强烈推荐评级。 大摩认为，自美光发布业绩指引以来，内存产品定价已经出现显著上移，而且供应短缺并非局限在单一终端领 域，而是覆盖几乎所有下游应用场景，因此上调相关企业盈利预测。 在大摩的分析框架下，只要 AI 需求保持强韧，市场当前反复讨论的 HBM4 不确定性、中国相关扰动以及资本 开支担忧，都不构成行业发展的主要约束，核心矛盾仍然是供需缺口的持续存在与价格的再上行空间。 从定价与行业景气度跟踪情况来看，大摩的渠道信息继续支持 2026 年第一季度与第二季度 DRAM 与 NA ...

在供给短缺持续的背景下，上调存储预测，强烈推荐香农芯创，至少三倍以上空间，调入MSCi指数，给予强烈推 荐评级。 大摩认为，自美光给出指引以来，内存定价已经出现显著上移，而且短缺并非局限在单一终端，而是覆盖几乎所 有下游场景，因此上调相关盈利预测。 在大摩框架下，只要 AI 需求保持强韧，市场当前反复讨论的 HBM4 不确定性，中国相关扰动以及资本开支担忧都 不构成主要约束，核心矛盾仍然是供 在供给短缺持续的背景下，上调存储预测，强烈推荐香农芯创，至少三倍以上空间，调入MSCi指数，给予强烈推 荐评级。 大摩认为，自美光给出指引以来，内存定价已经出现显著上移，而且短缺并非局限在单一终端，而是覆盖几乎所 有下游场景，因此上调相关盈利预测。 在大摩框架下，只要 AI 需求保持强韧，市场当前反复讨论的 HBM4 不确定性，中国相关扰动以及资本开支担忧都 不构成主要约束，核心矛盾仍然是供需缺口的持续存在与价格的再上行空间。 从定价与景气跟踪看，大摩的渠道信息继续支持公历一季度与二季度 DRAM 与 NAND 价格进一步走高。 DDR5 现货价格年初至今再涨约 30%，当前较 1 月合约价高约 130%，较 12 月水 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The notes primarily focus on the semiconductor industry, specifically the memory storage sector, with a particular emphasis on Micron Technology (美光) and its market dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Shortage and Price Predictions** - The supply shortage in the memory industry has led to an upward revision of forecasts, with Micron being added to the MSCI index and receiving a strong buy rating [1] - Memory product pricing has already begun to rise since Micron's earnings guidance, indicating that the supply shortage affects nearly all downstream applications [1] - As long as AI demand remains strong, concerns regarding HBM4 uncertainty, disruptions in China, and capital expenditure worries are not seen as major constraints [1] 2. **Pricing Trends and Market Dynamics** - Current spot prices are on an upward trend, with mainstream contract prices potentially lagging behind spot prices by a significant margin [2] - Buyers who failed to lock in prices are purchasing at an average price close to several dollars per GB, reinforcing the likelihood of mainstream prices rising [2] - Micron's guidance for the second fiscal quarter suggests a revenue increase, with DRAM and NAND average prices expected to rise [2] 3. **Earnings Projections** - The market consensus expects Micron's peak earnings around the end of 2027, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $12, achievable with a 20% to 25% increase in average selling prices [3] - There is a possibility that Micron's EPS could exceed consensus expectations due to higher pricing levels [3] - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a potential EPS of $48 for 2026, suggesting a low valuation multiple for a cyclical company [3] 4. **Cash Flow and Financial Health** - Micron could generate cash flow equivalent to about 10% of its current enterprise value, assuming a quarterly profit of around $10 billion [4] 5. **Supply and Demand Dynamics** - The sustainability of the cycle depends on whether the supply-demand gap can be quickly closed, which is challenging given the high growth in AI demand [5] - Current production inventories are low, and key customers are paying premiums for early delivery, indicating strong demand [5] - Supply improvements are expected but will be gradual, with significant capacity expansions not anticipated until 2027 [5] 6. **AI-Related Revenue Growth** - The memory industry needs to support nearly $200 billion in new AI-related revenue over the next 12 months, which is greater than the entire logic chip market in 2020 [6] - Concerns about Chinese memory manufacturers are noted, as their market share remains low and they face technological and supply chain constraints [6] 7. **Market Signals and Risks** - Early signs of demand reduction are emerging, particularly from Qualcomm's comments regarding Chinese Android customers adjusting shipment plans due to memory shortages [7] - HBM pricing dynamics are acknowledged, with DDR5 prices making it a more attractive market, and concerns about Micron's HBM4 progress are not expected to negatively impact current earnings [7] 8. **Valuation Adjustments** - The target price for Micron has been raised to $450, based on an increased cross-cycle EPS estimate and a maintained valuation multiple of 25x [8] - The new EPS estimate reflects a significant increase from previous assumptions, indicating a strong outlook for the company [8] 9. **Future Earnings Estimates** - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at $34 billion, $58.7 billion, and $86.6 billion, with net profits expected to rise significantly during this period [9] - The company is expected to see substantial growth, especially after being added to the MSCI index, indicating a potential for significant stock price appreciation [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the importance of AI demand in shaping the future of the memory market and the potential for significant earnings growth driven by this sector [5][6][7] - The competitive landscape is influenced by technological advancements and supply chain constraints, particularly for Chinese manufacturers, which may limit their ability to impact global supply significantly [6][7] - The overall sentiment from the analysis is bullish, with a focus on the long-term growth potential of Micron and the memory industry as a whole, despite short-term fluctuations [3][4][5][6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the storage sector, driven by strong economic data and rising memory prices [1][2][8]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. stock indices opened higher on February 12, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, S&P 500 up 0.39%, and Nasdaq up 0.24% [4][5]. - Initial jobless claims for the previous week were reported at 227,000, slightly above the forecast of 224,000, while continuing claims were at 1.862 million, compared to an expected 1.85 million [5][6]. - The non-farm payroll report for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, below the anticipated 4.4% [5][6]. Storage Sector Summary - Storage concept stocks experienced a collective surge, with Seagate Technology and Western Digital both rising over 11%, SanDisk increasing over 10%, and Micron Technology up nearly 7% [8][9]. - A report from Counterpoint indicated that memory prices are expected to rise by 80%-90% quarter-on-quarter by Q1 2026, driven by significant increases in DRAM prices for general servers [9][10]. - TrendForce revised its forecasts for Q1 DRAM and NAND Flash price increases, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 90%-95% and NAND Flash by 55%-60% [10]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its expectations for DRAM supply shortages, predicting a shortfall of 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, marking the most severe shortage in 15 years [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecast and target price for Micron Technology (MU.US) due to ongoing supply shortages, reiterating an "overweight" rating and increasing the target price from $350 to $450 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Price Target - The analyst Joseph Moore expressed excitement about the future of the DRAM sector despite significant changes over the past 12 months [1] - The report anticipates further price increases this year, with DDR5 spot prices rising 30% year-to-date and currently 130% higher than January contract prices [1] - Micron's earnings per share could reach $52 in 2026, driven largely by high bandwidth memory and strong demand from Nvidia [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and HBM - HBM is a critical component of the market, and its health is essential for justifying higher valuations based on the "higher highs, higher lows" logic [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about Micron's position in HBM4, the rising DDR5 prices have made the market more attractive, with no expected negative impact on earnings [2] - Micron has stated that it is in mass production of HBM4 and has begun shipping to customers, with its HBM supply for the 2026 calendar year already sold out [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised Micron's target price from $350 to $450, indicating an implied upside of approximately 28.6% from the current stock price, driven by a supply shortage in memory chips across all end markets and a shift in pricing power to sellers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current memory chip supply shortage is underestimated by the market, with both DRAM and NAND prices expected to continue rising in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 [4]. - Micron's guidance for Q2 suggests a 37% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, with an implied average selling price (ASP) increase of about 30% [4]. - Competitors like SanDisk have reported a staggering 60% quarter-over-quarter increase in NAND ASP, while teams covering Samsung and Hynix predict DRAM price increases of 48% and 55%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Earnings Forecast - Morgan Stanley projects Micron's earnings per share (EPS) to soar to over $52 in the calendar year 2026, indicating a significant increase in profitability [3][9]. - The consensus expectation for Micron's earnings is considered overly conservative, with predictions suggesting a peak EPS of around $12 in late 2027, which Morgan Stanley believes will be exceeded in the next 18 months [9]. Group 3: Valuation Logic - Morgan Stanley argues that using traditional cyclical valuation frameworks for Micron is misguided, as the current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8 times the projected earnings of $48, which is significantly undervalued [10]. - The firm has adjusted its cross-cycle EPS estimate from $14 to $18, leading to a new target price of $450 based on a 25 times P/E ratio [11]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The structural supply-demand imbalance driven by AI is expected to create an additional $200 billion in annual revenue demand within the next 12 months, surpassing the entire semiconductor market revenue in 2020 [12]. - The slow growth in wafer output is projected to be only 7% year-over-year by the end of 2026, while demand is expected to grow explosively, with companies like Nvidia and AMD significantly increasing their revenue forecasts [12]. Group 5: Addressing Market Concerns - Concerns regarding the impact of Chinese memory chip companies and HBM4 production issues are deemed exaggerated by Morgan Stanley, which maintains that Micron's production timeline for HBM4 remains unchanged [13][14]. - Even if Micron faces unforeseen challenges in ramping up HBM4 production, the existing HBM3e will continue to dominate the market and will not negatively impact profitability [13].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes the market has significantly underestimated the current shortage of memory chips, driven by the AI supercycle, making traditional cyclical valuation frameworks obsolete. Micron is at a sweet spot of both profitability and valuation expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Pricing Power and Profitability - The current tightness in the memory chip market is underestimated, with both DRAM and NAND prices expected to rise significantly in Q1 and Q2 of 2026. Micron's guidance suggests a 37% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, with an implied average selling price (ASP) increase of about 30% [2]. - Competitors are also seeing substantial price increases, with SanDisk projecting a 60% ASP increase for NAND, while teams covering Samsung and Hynix predict DRAM price increases of 48% and 55% respectively [2]. - Morgan Stanley projects Micron's earnings per share (EPS) to reach $52.53 in the calendar year 2026, indicating a significant increase in profitability [7]. Group 2: Valuation Logic - The current market valuation of Micron is considered extremely low, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8 times the projected earnings of $48. This is significantly below the peak profitability levels seen in previous cycles [8]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its cross-cycle EPS estimate from $14 to $18, which, when multiplied by a 25x P/E ratio, leads to a new target price of $450 for Micron [9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The AI-driven structural supply-demand imbalance is a key factor supporting this supercycle, with manufacturers' inventories at historically low levels. Even with premium pricing, customers struggle to secure sufficient supply [10]. - Demand is expected to surge, with Nvidia projecting an additional $30 billion in quarterly revenue by 2026, and the entire storage industry facing nearly $200 billion in annualized incremental revenue needs over the next 12 months [10]. Group 4: Market Concerns Addressed - Concerns regarding the impact of Chinese memory chip companies and HBM4 production issues are deemed exaggerated by Morgan Stanley. Micron is on track to begin HBM4 mass production in Q2 2026, and any potential challenges in ramping up HBM4 production will not negatively impact profitability due to the continued dominance of HBM3e in the market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese storage industry is experiencing a "value reassessment" with a significant surge in stock prices and a 50% increase in the storage sector within a month, marking the onset of a "super bull market" driven by AI demand and domestic production capabilities [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over ten trading days, more than 20 stocks hit the daily limit, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation seeing an 80% increase in ten days and Changjiang Storage achieving a 180% rise this year [3][5]. - The price of 256GB DDR5 server memory has exceeded 50,000 yuan, while the price of 16GB DDR4 memory has surged from 180 yuan to 420 yuan, indicating extreme market volatility [5][7]. - The current demand for AI servers is 8-10 times higher than traditional servers, consuming 53% of global memory production capacity, while supply is constrained due to major manufacturers reallocating 80% of advanced capacity to higher-margin products [7][9]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The establishment of the domestic storage ecosystem alliance and a 5 billion yuan special fund aims to focus on core technologies such as DRAM and NAND Flash, with significant improvements in efficiency and cost reductions [3][9]. - The HBM3e high-bandwidth memory has achieved mass production, and Changjiang Storage's 232-layer 3D NAND has reduced unit storage costs by 70% [3][9]. - The transition from imported reliance to domestic alternatives in storage chips signifies a major shift in the industry, with the storage cycle moving from "moderate growth" to a "super bull market" [3][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - SK Hynix's net profit is expected to surge by 119% in Q3 2025, while Samsung's semiconductor business profits are projected to grow by 31.81% [11][12]. - Domestic module manufacturers like Jiangbolong are experiencing a V-shaped recovery, with net profits increasing by 1994% year-on-year [11][12]. - The overall market for storage chips in China is projected to reach nearly 500 billion yuan by 2026, with domestic manufacturers rapidly filling the gap in mature process fields [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Structure and Future Outlook - The storage chip industry is evolving from a traditional cyclical market to a core component of AI infrastructure, necessitating a comprehensive restructuring of the industry chain [13][25]. - The domestic storage industry is poised for a significant rebound in 2026, supported by government initiatives and market demand, with a focus on high-end breakthroughs [25][26]. - Companies that can integrate data, storage, and computing solutions will establish barriers in AI inference, edge computing, and smart terminals, positioning themselves as key players in the storage era [23][25].

据智通财经2月9日报道，Counterpoint《2月内存价格追踪报告》显示，2026年第一季度内存价格环比上 涨80%-90%，创历史暴涨纪录，通用服务器DRAM价格大幅攀升成为核心推手。同期，第四季度表现平 稳的NAND闪存同步上涨80%-90%，叠加部分HBM3e产品价格走高，市场呈现全品类加速上涨态势。 其中，服务器级64GB RDIMM合约价从去年第四季度的450美元飙升至900美元以上，二季度有望突破 1000美元关口。 点评：招商证券表示，本轮价格暴涨核心逻辑是AI推理驱动存储需求成倍增长，叠加供给端有效产能 释放滞后。AI服务器推动存储架构向"HBM+DRAM+NAND"三级演进，数据中心成为最大单一市场， 2026年服务器DRAM占比将突破50%，中长期需求CAGR维持20%高位。 广发证券指出，通用服务器DRAM涨价的核心催化是GPU迭代带动存储容量与产能需求激增，B200、 B300等新一代GPU对应的DRAM等效产能消耗同比增长20%-171%。而供给端新增产能集中在2027年及 以后释放，2026年行业供需结构性错配将持续，AI驱动的紧缺态势难缓解。 大为股份：全资子公司大为创芯主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage price surge is ongoing, with memory prices expected to rise by 80%-90% by Q1 2026, driven by significant demand in the server DRAM market and a broader increase across all memory categories [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - According to Counterpoint, memory prices are projected to increase by 80%-90% by Q1 2026, with server DRAM prices being a major contributor [2]. - The price of 64GB RDIMM has surged from $450 in Q4 2022 to over $900 in Q1 2023, with expectations to exceed $1,000 in Q2 2023 [2]. - TrendForce has revised its forecast for Q1 2023, predicting a 90%-95% increase in Conventional DRAM contract prices, up from an earlier estimate of 55%-60% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for the supply-demand gap in the memory chip market, predicting a shortage of 4.9% for DRAM in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, marking the most severe shortage in 15 years [4]. - The demand for server DRAM is expected to grow by 39% in 2026 and 22% in 2027, with servers becoming the primary driver of DRAM demand [4]. - The NAND market is also tightening, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 4.2% shortage in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand [5]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The current memory cycle is driven by AI demand, which is leading to a more comprehensive shortage compared to previous cycles, with cloud service providers (CSPs) driving the demand [3]. - The shift in customer demand from end-users to CSPs has resulted in exponential growth in procurement volumes, with less sensitivity to price increases [3]. - The AI industry's focus on real-time response and data access efficiency is increasing the demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth DRAM [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The storage industry is expected to see significant revenue growth, with the market projected to reach $551.6 billion by 2026, driven by supply constraints and price surges [2]. - The current price and demand dynamics suggest that 2026 will be a year of substantial performance releases for storage companies, with a focus on the sustainability of price trends and company performance [6].