（原标题：TrendForce集邦咨询：2027年全球DRAM供给或将上修） 智通财经APP获悉，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新DRAM产业调查，随着Micron（美光科技）计划以18 亿美元收购PSMC（力积电）在铜锣的厂房(不含生产相关机器设备)，双方将建立长期的DRAM先进封 装代工关系，此次合作将有利于Micron增添先进制程DRAM产能，并提升PSMC的成熟制程DRAM供 应，预估2027年全球DRAM产业供给将有上修空间。 TrendForce集邦咨询表示，2025年下半年开始，ASIC和AI推理分别带动HBM3e、DDR5需求，并推升整 体DRAM利润率，促使Micron加速扩充产能。本次收购PSMC铜锣厂包括土地及厂房、无尘室，预期 Micron将可在2026至2027年分批移入既有及新订购的设备，以DRAM先进制程的前段设备为主，并于 2027年投入量产。预估铜锣一期在2027年下半年可贡献的产能，将相当于Micron 2026年第四季全球产 能的10%以上。 据TrendForce集邦咨询统计，2025年第三季Micron在全球DRAM产业的营收市占率为25.7%，排名第 三。202 ...

根 据 Tr e n dFo r c e 集 邦 咨 询 最 新 调 查 ， NVIDIA （ 英 伟 达 ） 于 2 0 2 5 年 第 三 季 调 整 Ru b i n 平 台 的 HBM4规格，上修对Sp e e d p e r Pi n的要求至高于11Gb p s，致使三大HBM供应商需修正设计。 此 外 ， AI 热 潮 刺 激 NVIDIA 前 一 代 Bl a c kwe ll 产 品 需 求 优 于 预 期 ， Ru b i n 平 台 量 产 时 程 顺 势 调 整。两项因素皆导致HBM4放量时间点延后，预期最快于2 0 2 6年第一季末进入量产。 Jan. 8, 2026 产业洞察 近期文章精选 TrendForce Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询表示，SK h y n i x（SK海力士）、Sams u n g（三星）、Mi c r o n（美光）皆 已重新送样其HBM4产品，并持续调整设计，以回应NVIDIA更严格的规格要求。与竞争对手相 比，Sams u n g的HBM4率先采用1Cnm制程，在b a s e d i e更采用自家晶圆代工厂的先进制程，未 来将能支持相对高速 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the acceleration of electric and intelligent vehicle development, predicting that the global automotive semiconductor market will grow from approximately $67.7 billion in 2024 to nearly $96.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2024 to 2029 [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent surge in demand for conventional DRAM, leading to a rapid increase in prices, while also noting that the average selling price (ASP) gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is expected to narrow in the coming year [5] - It mentions that PlayNitride will acquire 100% of Lumiode Inc. for $2 million, which will enhance its technology and patent portfolio, as well as expand its customer base and sales channels in North America, thereby increasing its international competitiveness in near-eye displays and medical applications [6]

Core Insights - The recent supply-demand imbalance in the memory market has led to a rapid increase in Conventional DRAM prices, while HBM3e prices have also risen due to increased GPU and ASIC orders, although the average selling price (ASP) gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is expected to narrow significantly over the next year [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TrendForce indicates that NVIDIA will initiate procurement discussions with major DRAM suppliers for 2026 in May 2025, with initial HBM3e prices expected to be significantly lower than 2025 levels due to buyer-led pricing [1] - Starting in Q3 2025, the memory market is anticipated to experience a rapid reversal in supply-demand dynamics, driven by stronger-than-expected AI-related server demand, leading cloud service providers (CSPs) to increase their DDR5 inventory and set procurement plans for 2026-2027 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - By Q4 2025, the contract price for Server DDR5 is expected to increase significantly, exceeding market expectations, which will enhance wafer profitability and narrow the price gap with HBM3e [1] - HBM3e prices, which were previously four to five times higher than Server DDR5, are projected to narrow to one to two times higher by the end of 2026 [1] - As Conventional DRAM profitability rises, some suppliers are shifting capacity towards DDR5, providing more room for HBM3e price increases [2]

Core Insights - The storage market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a rapid increase in conventional DRAM prices, while HBM3e prices are also rising due to increased GPU and ASIC orders, although the price gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is expected to narrow significantly in the coming year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Starting from Q3 2025, the storage market's supply-demand situation reversed quickly due to higher-than-expected demand for AI-related server layouts, prompting major cloud service providers to increase their DDR5 inventory and plan purchases for 2026-2027, resulting in a market shortage [3]. - The contract price for Server DDR5 in Q4 2025 has increased significantly beyond market expectations, with wafer profitability expected to strengthen, leading to a rapid convergence in price differences between HBM3e and Server DDR5 [3]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - As conventional DRAM profitability rises, some suppliers are shifting capacity towards DDR5, providing greater pricing power for HBM3e. Following the increase in GPU and ASIC demand, major buyers are adding HBM3e purchases to prepare for upcoming AI system developments [4]. - Suppliers have regained pricing power and are adjusting previously low contract prices, with an expectation that the overall ASP for HBM3e will see a slight increase in 2026 [4].

Summary of Global Memory Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - **Memory Market Growth**: The global memory market is projected to experience significant growth, with DRAM sales expected to reach **US$196 billion** in 2026, representing a **51% year-over-year increase**. NAND sales are anticipated to hit **US$114 billion**, reflecting a **45% increase** [1][10]. - **ASP Increases**: Average Selling Prices (ASP) for DRAM and NAND are expected to rise by **33%** and **26%** year-over-year, respectively, contributing more to revenue than bit growth, which is projected at **14%** for DRAM and **15%** for NAND [1][10]. Key Points 1. **2026 Super-Cycle**: The memory market is expected to enter a super-cycle similar to the 1990s, driven by AI advancements and a prolonged upturn, with sales growth continuing into **2027** [1][10]. 2. **HBM Demand Growth**: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) demand is projected to grow by **50-100% annually**, driven by new GPU and ASIC technologies, while wafer capacity growth is expected to remain below **50%** [2]. 3. **Supply Constraints**: High capital expenditures (capex) are anticipated, with SK Hynix's capex estimated at **W23 trillion** in 2025 and **W35 trillion** in 2026. However, productivity is expected to be low, leading to a production volume increase of less than **20%** year-over-year for DRAM and NAND [3]. 4. **Sustainable High ASP**: Despite spot price corrections, conventional DRAM prices are expected to stabilize between **US$10-15**, indicating a potential upside of over **50%** for contract prices [4]. 5. **Top Investment Picks**: SK Hynix is identified as the top pick in the global memory sector, with Samsung Electronics and Nanya Tech also recommended. EPS estimates and price objectives for all three companies have been raised due to favorable pricing conditions [5][6]. Company-Specific Insights - **SK Hynix**: Projected operating profit for 4Q25 and 2026 is **W16 trillion** and **W77 trillion**, respectively. The new price objective is set at **W900,000**, up from **W800,000**, with a **23%** increase in EPS estimates based on higher DRAM ASP [6]. - **Samsung Electronics**: Expected operating profit for 4Q25 and 2026 is **W15 trillion** and **W76 trillion**. The new price objective is **W150,000**, up from **W140,000**, with a **17%** increase in EPS estimates [6]. - **Nanya Tech**: Benefiting from legacy DRAM shortages, the new price objective is **NT$200**, up from **NT$178**, with a **25%** increase in EPS estimates [6]. Additional Insights - **Inventory Levels**: As of December 2025, both DRAM and NAND inventories are at **3-4 weeks**, lower than the normal **1-2 months**, indicating tight supply conditions [12]. - **Utilization Rates**: Memory chipmakers' fabs are fully utilized, excluding old idle capacity, suggesting strong demand [14]. - **Sales Mix**: The sales mix for DRAM is increasingly driven by server and smartphone applications, with servers expected to account for **55%** of DRAM sales by 2027 [17]. Conclusion The global memory market is poised for substantial growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand across various applications. Investment opportunities are favorable for key players like SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Nanya Tech, with a focus on ASP increases and supply constraints shaping the market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Samsung is regaining dominance in the memory market with its "technology-first" strategy, projecting a more than 150% increase in earnings per share from 2025 to 2026 [3][5]. Group 1: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Developments - Samsung has achieved significant progress in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sector, with HBM4 products undergoing multiple qualification tests, and initial results expected in early December [3]. - The company currently has an effective DRAM capacity of 500,000 wafers, significantly surpassing its competitors [3][5]. - Samsung's unique advantages in high-speed (>11 Gbps) and end-to-end solutions from DRAM to packaging are expected to enhance its market share [3]. Group 2: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM order fulfillment rate has dropped to around 70% of customer demand, indicating a continued visibility into the first half of 2026 [3]. - Samsung's management is adopting a more rational strategy, focusing on sustainable profitability through collaboration with key customers rather than chasing market trends [3]. Group 3: NAND Pricing Forecasts - NAND contract pricing is expected to increase significantly, with forecasts indicating a rise of 25-30% for enterprise SSDs in Q4 2025 and a gradual decrease in growth rates into 2026 [4]. Group 4: Foundry Business Recovery - Samsung's foundry business is showing signs of recovery, with improved utilization rates and advanced process performance driving profitability [5]. - The company has secured multiple orders in the 2nm process area, indicating a positive shift in its customer-centric culture [5]. - Morgan Stanley projects Samsung's earnings per share to reach 14,464 KRW in 2026, nearly 50% higher than current market consensus [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Samsung Electronics is regaining dominance in the memory market with its "technology-first" strategy, projecting a more than 150% increase in earnings per share from 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Samsung has achieved comprehensive catch-up in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sector, with HBM3e products already shipped to all AI computing customers, and HBM4 products undergoing multiple qualification tests [1] - Unlike competitors, Samsung does not need to modify design requirements, maintaining a leading edge in product quality and specifications due to its 1c DDR5 front-end technology and 4nm logic base die [1] - Samsung's unique advantage in the high-speed 11 Gbps sector and its end-to-end solution capabilities from DRAM to foundry to packaging are expected to significantly enhance its market share [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Demand - Samsung currently possesses an effective DRAM production capacity of 500,000 wafers per month, far exceeding competitors, with total capacity around 650,000 wafers per month [1] - The DRAM order fulfillment rate has dropped to about 70% of customer demand, indicating visibility extending into the first half of 2026 [1] - Samsung's management has adopted a more rational strategy, focusing on sustainable profitability through collaboration with key customers based on actual demand [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley projects Samsung's earnings per share to reach 14,464 KRW in 2026, nearly 50% higher than the current market consensus of 9,800 KRW [4] - The anticipated earnings growth is expected to improve the price-to-earnings ratio multiples [4] - The market may be unprepared for specific positive developments at Samsung, which could act as catalysts for stock price increases [4]

Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Semiconductors - **Current View**: Attractive [6][9] Key Company Insights - **Company Mentioned**: CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) - Plans to increase capacity for DDR4/LPDDR4 and accelerate DDR5/LPDDR5 supply to alleviate shortages in 2-3 months [1] - Analysts express skepticism about CXMT switching back to DDR4/LPDDR4 due to required changes in circuit design and smaller total addressable market (TAM) compared to DDR5 [2] - CXMT is expected to increase capacity by 10-20 kilowatts per month (kwpm) next year, focusing on advanced products like HBM3e or DDR5, but ramp-up will take time [2] Market Sentiment - Despite market volatility, analysts remain bullish on old memory players, reiterating a top pick on Winbond Electronics Corp [3] Valuation Methodology - **Winbond Electronics Corp**: - Base case valuation at 3.0x 2026 estimated price-to-book (P/B) ratio, reflecting the industry's high volatility [9] - Analysts believe the stock deserves a multiple beyond its historical range of 0.5x-1.5x since 2017 due to strong DRAM pricing and sustainable NOR price increases [9] Risks Identified - **Upside Risks**: - Increase in NOR Flash pricing driven by stronger-than-expected demand [11] - Stronger-than-expected DRAM pricing due to ongoing supply shortages [11] - Faster-than-expected development of SLC NAND [11] - **Downside Risks**: - NOR Flash downcycle due to weaker demand [11] - Lower-than-expected DRAM pricing due to oversupply [11] - Slower-than-expected SLC NAND development [11] Analyst Team - **Analysts Involved**: - Daniel Yen, CFA - Charlie Chan - Daisy Dai, CFA - Tiffany Yeh - Ethan Jia [5] Important Disclosures - Morgan Stanley may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with companies covered in the research [6][4] - The report includes various regulatory disclosures and compliance information relevant to the companies mentioned [4][12] Conclusion - The Greater China semiconductor industry is currently viewed as attractive, with specific focus on CXMT's capacity expansion and Winbond's strong market position. Analysts are cautious yet optimistic about the potential for pricing increases in the memory sector, while also highlighting significant risks that could impact market dynamics.

Core Insights - Memory prices have increased by 50% this year, with expectations of a further 30% rise by Q4 2025 and an additional 20% increase early next year [1] - The supply of traditional LPDDR4 is tightening, driven by strong demand from AI applications, particularly from Nvidia, which is impacting the entire consumer electronics market [1][2] - The current shortage primarily affects low-end smartphones, with potential ripple effects across the smartphone and consumer electronics ecosystem [5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in production capacity towards higher-end processes is disrupting the overall market structure, leading to price inversion in the spot market [1] - DDR5 prices are expected to double from Q1 2025 to the end of 2026 due to extreme supply constraints [3] - The transition of Nvidia to LPDDR for lower power consumption is creating significant demand that the supply chain struggles to accommodate [2] Group 2: Impact on Manufacturers - The BOM costs for smartphones are rising significantly, with some models experiencing increases of up to 15%, which could compress profit margins and hinder growth [5] - Major chip manufacturers are expected to increase DRAM production by over 20% by 2026, with companies like Samsung and SK Hynix adjusting their production strategies [2] - Macroeconomic risks, including tariffs and geopolitical factors, are adding to the uncertainty in the industry, forcing suppliers and manufacturers to navigate difficult trade-offs [5]