苟嘉章预估，DRAM在2026年将全年缺货，不过，随着三星、SK海力士及美光新厂逐步开出，预期 2027年缺货情况可望获缓解。至于NAND Flash方面，预估2026年NANDFlash市场也将缺货，预期三年 后市场版图将出现变化；除三星、SK海力士及铠侠外，长江存储在中国内需带动下，可望跻身全球前 四大厂之列。 人工智能（AI）应用带动存储器需求，外界关注缺货潮将持续多久。这股热潮不仅让研究机构预期 DDR5合约价看涨，获利有望于2026年超越新一代高频宽存储器HBM3e，存储器控制芯片厂商慧荣科技 总经理苟嘉章昨（1）日更预期，AI带动下，可能缺货一整年。 苟嘉章指出，此次存储器缺货潮并不是供应商减产带动，是结构性缺货。市场绝对会有重复下单情况， 实际情况难以掌握，只希望产业能够平衡发展。 TrendForce最新调查指出，由于伺服器需求维持强劲，预期DDR5合约价于2026全年均将呈上涨态势， 尤以上半年较显著。反观当前2026年HBM议价情况，随着三大原厂在HBM3e竞争激励，且买方有一定 库存水位，预计合约价转为年减。 TrendForce分析，今年第2季HBM3e和DDR5仍有四倍以上价差，前者 ...

DRAM供应吃紧推高DDR5合约价，2026年获利有望超越HBM3e 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新调查，2025年第四季Se rve r DRAM合约价受惠于全球云端供应商 (CSP)扩充数据中心规模，涨势转强，并带动整体DRAM价格上扬。尽管第四季DRAM合约价 尚未完整开出，供应商先前收到CSP加单需求后，调升报价的意愿明显提高。 TrendForc e集邦 咨询据此调整第四季一般型(Conventional DRAM)价格预估，涨幅从先前的8-13%，上修至 18-23%，并且很有可能再度上修。 | | Total DRAM | | --- | --- | | | Conventional DRAM: | | Revised | up 18~23% | | Version | HBM Blended: | | | up 23"28% | | | Conventional DRAM: | | Original | up 8~13% | | Version | HBM Blended: | | | up 13~18% | | | Source: TrendForce, Oct. 2025 Tr ...

在第三季度，该公司实现了创纪录的营业利润 11.4 万亿韩元(约合 80 亿美元)，创历史新高，略高于分 析师预期的平均值。销售额达到 24.5 万亿韩元。 隔夜美股存储板块继续狂飙，闪迪涨超16%，西部数据涨超13%，希捷科技涨超19%，美光科技涨超 2%。 SK 海力士公布其利润增长了 62%，并透露明年全系列存储芯片订单已售罄，这表明全球人工智能基础 设施的建设正在大幅提升整个行业的需求。 展望2026年，预估Server需求维持强劲，DDR5合约价或于2026全年呈上涨态势。随着DDR5价格持续走 扬缩小与HBM3e的价差，2026年第一季起，DDR5的获利表现有望优于HBM3e。 摩根士丹利预测，人工智能热潮下，存储芯片行业预计迎来"超级周期"。 存储芯片相关概念港股： 佰维存储（IPO递表中）、晶存科技（IPO递表）、中芯国际（00981）、华虹半导体（01347）、上海 复旦（01385）。 周三上午，在首尔，SK海力士股票涨幅高达 5%。 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，2025年第四季Server DRAM合约价受惠于全球云端供应商(CSP)扩充 数据中心规模，涨势转强，并带动整体 ...

隔夜美股存储板块继续狂飙，闪迪涨超16%，西部数据涨超13%，希捷科技涨超19%，美光科技涨超 2%。 SK 海力士公布其利润增长了 62%，并透露明年全系列存储芯片订单已售罄，这表明全球人工智能基础 设施的建设正在大幅提升整个行业的需求。 智通财经APP获悉，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，2025年第四季Server DRAM合约价受惠于全球 云端供应商(CSP)扩充数据中心规模，涨势转强，并带动整体DRAM价格上扬。 展望2026年，预估Server需求维持强劲，DDR5合约价或于2026全年呈上涨态势。随着DDR5价格持续走 扬缩小与HBM3e的价差，2026年第一季起，DDR5的获利表现有望优于HBM3e。 摩根士丹利预测，人工智能热潮下，存储芯片行业预计迎来"超级周期"。 存储芯片相关概念港股： 佰维存储（IPO递表中）、晶存科技（IPO递表）、中芯国际（00981）、华虹半导体（01347）、上海 复旦（01385）。 在第三季度，该公司实现了创纪录的营业利润 11.4 万亿韩元(约合 80 亿美元)，创历史新高，略高于分 析师预期的平均值。销售额达到 24.5 万亿韩元。 周三上午， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the Server DRAM contract prices are expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of data centers by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [1] - TrendForce has revised its forecast for the fourth quarter Conventional DRAM price increase from 8%-13% to 18%-23%, with potential for further upward adjustments [1] - The report anticipates a 4% year-over-year increase in Server shipments in 2026, driven by CSPs adopting high-performance computing architectures, which will increase DRAM capacity per server [1] Group 2 - The price gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is projected to narrow significantly by 2026, with DDR5 expected to outperform HBM3e in profitability starting in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Due to competitive capacity between HBM3e and DDR5, suppliers may increase Server DDR5 supply to strengthen their profit base [2] - The pricing strategies and capacity allocation between DDR5 and HBM will be critical variables influencing the market direction in the near future [2]

Group 1 - Ningquan Asset, a private equity firm, announced the suspension of new investor subscriptions starting October 30, while existing investors can still make additional subscriptions [1] - Multiple consumer finance companies received regulatory guidance stating that the comprehensive financing cost for new loans must not exceed 20%, which is expected to significantly impact the lending business [1] - The international gold price has experienced significant volatility, with a drop of nearly 90 yuan per gram in less than half a month, leading to increased activity in the gold recycling market [1] Group 2 - TrendForce reported that the supply tightness in DRAM is pushing up DDR5 contract prices, with expectations for significant profit growth in 2026 [2] - CINNO Research indicated that global AMOLED smartphone panel shipments reached approximately 250 million units in Q3 2025, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3 - Amazon announced plans to lay off about 14,000 employees to streamline operations and accelerate AI deployment, with cumulative layoffs exceeding 27,000 since 2022 [4] - Tesla's chairman stated the company is preparing for a potential "post-Musk" era, indicating internal succession plans if Musk's compensation plan is rejected [4] Group 4 - Four-dimensional Map Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CheLianTianXia to collaborate in various fields, including smart cockpit technology [5] - LanShi Heavy Industry signed a significant contract worth 581 million yuan with China Nuclear Power Engineering Company for a nuclear energy project [5] Group 5 - LianCe Technology reported a 36.54% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - YongChuang Intelligent announced a 61.17% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - JinKong Electric reported a 203.02% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [8] - JianLong MicroNano reported a 20.15% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - SiTeWei reported a 155.99% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 and proposed a cash dividend [10] - DongFang Iron Tower reported a 77.57% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - YaKang International reported a 163.01% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [12] Group 6 - The North Stock 50 Index surged over 8%, with significant activity in the energy storage and non-ferrous metal sectors, while banking stocks experienced declines [13]

Core Insights - The Server DRAM contract prices are expected to rise significantly in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from global cloud service providers (CSPs) expanding their data center capacities [1] - The DDR5 contract prices are projected to maintain an upward trend throughout 2026, with a notable increase in the first half of the year [4] - The price gap between DDR5 and HBM3e is expected to narrow, leading to better profitability for DDR5 starting in Q1 2026 [4][5] Price Adjustments - The revised forecast for Conventional DRAM prices has been adjusted from an original increase of 8-13% to a new range of 18-23% [2] - HBM blended prices are also expected to rise, with the new forecast indicating an increase of 23-28% [2] Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The shipment volume of servers is anticipated to grow by approximately 4% year-on-year in 2026, driven by CSPs adopting high-performance computing architectures [4] - The demand for DRAM is expected to exceed initial forecasts, leading to a continued supply shortage [4] Competitive Landscape - The competition among major suppliers in the HBM3e market is intensifying, which may lead to a decrease in contract prices for HBM3e due to existing inventory levels among buyers [4] - Suppliers may increase the supply of Server DDR5 to strengthen their profit margins as the profitability structure shifts [5] - Future capacity allocation and pricing strategies between DDR5 and HBM will be critical variables influencing market trends [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated increase in Server DRAM contract prices in Q4 2025, driven by the expansion of data centers by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2][3] - TrendForce has revised its price forecast for Conventional DRAM from an initial increase of 8-13% to a new range of 18-23% [2][3] Price Forecasts - The revised price increase for Conventional DRAM is now projected at 18-23%, while HBM Blended is expected to rise by 23-28% [3] - The original forecast for Conventional DRAM was an increase of 8-13%, and for HBM Blended, it was 13-18% [3] Market Outlook for 2026 - Server shipment volume is expected to grow by approximately 4% in 2026, with CSPs adopting high-performance computing architectures, leading to increased DRAM capacity per server [5] - The strong demand for servers is anticipated to keep DDR5 contract prices on an upward trend throughout 2026, particularly in the first half of the year [5] Competitive Landscape - As of Q2 2025, there was a significant price gap of over four times between HBM3e and DDR5, with HBM3e providing better profitability for suppliers [6] - However, as DDR5 prices continue to rise, the price gap is expected to narrow significantly by 2026, with DDR5 profitability surpassing that of HBM3e starting in Q1 2026 [6] - Suppliers may increase the supply of Server DDR5 to solidify their profit base, while also potentially raising average selling prices (ASP) to balance product profitability [6]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is optimistic about its recovery in the semiconductor market, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence, following recent strategic partnerships and contracts that bolster its position in the industry [2][5]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Samsung's flagship store event showcased its latest device, the Galaxy XR headset, reflecting the company's positive outlook as it aims to regain its footing in the AI-driven market [2]. - The company resolved long-standing legal issues involving its chairman, which has contributed to a more favorable business environment [2]. - In July, Samsung secured a $16.5 billion contract to produce chips for Tesla at its new Texas facility, alleviating concerns about finding clients for its contract chip manufacturing business [2]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Samsung signed a strategic partnership with OpenAI to supply DRAM chips for the $500 billion Stargate project, aimed at establishing large data centers in the U.S. [2]. - This partnership is seen as a catalyst for Samsung's stock price increase, as the expansion of semiconductor infrastructure is deemed essential for supporting AI [2]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Samsung has historically dominated the DRAM and NAND memory chip markets but is currently lagging behind SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sector, crucial for AI accelerators [3][5]. - TrendForce estimates that SK Hynix will hold a 52.3% market share in HBM this year, while Samsung's share is expected to drop from 41% to 28.7% [3]. Group 4: Recovery Efforts - Samsung has initiated a comprehensive action plan to recover its market position in HBM, including forming new engineering teams and accelerating product certification processes [5]. - The company has recently passed critical certification tests for its HBM3e product with Nvidia, although the impact on sales remains limited [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The next 12 months are critical for Samsung to establish a reliable supply of HBM3e and align its HBM4 timeline with Nvidia's GPU roadmap to regain competitiveness [6]. - Analysts predict that while Samsung will enter the HBM4 market next year, it may take time to catch up with SK Hynix in terms of technology and market share [6]. - The success of Samsung's HBM efforts is vital for re-establishing its dominance in the chip sector, with strong performance in its foldable smartphone lineup also contributing positively to its overall business [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in memory prices, particularly highlighting the unusual decision by Samsung to initiate a price war on HBM3e memory, despite the overall market experiencing significant price increases [2][4]. Group 1: Memory Price Trends - Recent headlines indicate a dramatic increase in memory prices, with DDR4 experiencing even more substantial price hikes than DDR5 [2]. - HBM3e, a high-performance memory currently used in AMD and NVIDIA AI graphics cards, is set to be released in 2024, but Samsung is lagging behind competitors SK Hynix and Micron in this segment [4]. Group 2: Samsung's Pricing Strategy - Samsung, having only recently received NVIDIA's certification for HBM3e in September, is reportedly planning to reduce prices by 30% for certain customers to capture market share [4]. - The decision to lower prices on high-end HBM memory during a time of rising overall memory prices raises questions about the sustainability of the current price increases in the memory market [4]. Group 3: Market Demand and Production Capacity - Despite potential price reductions in HBM3e, it is unlikely that prices for general DDR and LPDDR memory will decrease quickly due to high demand and production capacity constraints [4]. - Even DDR4, which is considered less mainstream, has seen significant price increases driven by demand from sectors such as automotive and set-top boxes [4].