1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may experience high - level volatility and adjustment in the short term, and the aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may also undergo high - level volatility and adjustment [5][72][75]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data supports the rebound of the US dollar index, increasing pressure on non - ferrous metals. The domestic "structural interest rate cut" and moderately loose policies help support the fundamentals, but market sentiment has weakened due to the high - level volatility of precious metals [5]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly, and the production volume has also increased. The downstream processing sector has shown differentiated performance among leading enterprises, with the overall operating rate increasing slightly due to pre - holiday inventory preparation. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate, but the inventory level is not high, and the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating production capacity has changed little, the social inventory has continued to accumulate but the inventory level is not high, and the processing end operating rate is expected to remain resilient [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The rebound of the US dollar index has increased pressure on non - ferrous metals, and the macro sentiment has weakened [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Aluminum Ore Supply - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is tight. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.21% year - on - year, but the November output decreased by 5.26% year - on - year. The performance in different regions was significantly different. The northern region faced a phased supply shortage [20]. - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose. In November, the import volume increased by 9.8% month - on - month and 22.3% year - on - year, with a significant increase in imports from Guinea [23]. 3.3.2 Alumina Market - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation. In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was 9800000 tons, and it is expected to reach 8600000 tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is released as expected, the oversupply will exceed 10000000 tons [27]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. It is expected that the operating production capacity will increase slightly at the beginning of next year, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [32]. 3.3.4 Aluminum Processing - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2% due to pre - holiday inventory preparation, but high aluminum prices restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the operating rate [35]. 3.3.5 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490000 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly by 10.79% to 143828 tons in the week of January 9 [45]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from Monday. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [49]. 3.3.6 Price and Premium - On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaobao aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium changed from a discount to a premium of 1.42 US dollars/ton [53]. 3.3.7 Recycled Aluminum - In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640400 tons, a decrease of 41800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized enterprises faced raw material procurement difficulties, and the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly in January [56]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.2% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 51.5% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month. The import volume is expected to remain low in December [63]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69300 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60200 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from last week [68]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price, and both may experience high - level volatility and adjustment [72][75].