作者 | 第一财经 马晨晨 "从目前情况来看，预计今年迎峰度夏期间，全国电力供应总体有保障，局部地区高峰时段可能存在电力供 应紧张情况。"国家能源局市场监管司司长郝瑞锋日前在国新办新闻发布会上作出上述判断。 入夏以来，随着全国气温攀升，各地陆续进入迎峰度夏保障供电的关键时期。此前国家能源局有关负责人 表示，综合研判，预计今年度夏期间，全国用电负荷还将快速增长，最高负荷同比增长约1亿千瓦，电力保 供面临一定压力。 去年，全国电力供应保障经受住了夏季高温、冬季寒潮等多重考验，28个省级电网负荷创历史新高。而在 今年，全国电力消费继续增长，前四个月全社会用电量累计3.16万亿千瓦时，同比增长3.1%。 为了应对即将到来的夏季用电高峰，多方从能源供应、运输和消费等环节入手，部署今夏能源电力安全稳 定供应。 煤价持续走低、库存同比提高 虽然去年我国新能源装机规模首次超过煤电装机，但是从发电量和调峰能力来看，煤电依然是保障电力供 应的"压舱石"。从近年的情况来看，煤炭价格过高、电价疏导不畅导致火电企业生产经营压力过大，曾是发 电侧电力保供的一大风险点。 6月10日，中国电煤采购价格指数（CECI）公布的分析周报显示，CE ...

Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand - The overall electricity supply in China is expected to be secure during the peak summer period, although some regions may experience tight supply during peak hours [1] - National electricity consumption has continued to grow, with a cumulative total of 3.16 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first four months of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] - The highest electricity load is projected to increase by approximately 10 million kilowatts compared to last year, indicating pressure on electricity supply [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices have been declining, with the average prices for high calorific value coal types at 616 yuan/ton, 535 yuan/ton, and 468 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year [2][3] - The current coal prices are significantly lower than the peak prices seen in recent years, which were often over 1,000 yuan/ton [2] - Coal inventory at coal-fired power plants has increased to over 120 million tons, up by 1.12 million tons year-on-year, with an average usable days of 30.5 days, an increase of 1.6 days compared to last year [3] Group 3: Load Management Strategies - There is a heightened focus on precise management and effective guidance of electricity demand this year, contrasting with previous years that emphasized supply-side responsibilities [5] - Various regions are implementing strategies to manage electricity load, including the use of virtual power plants to optimize demand response and ensure stable supply [6][7] - The establishment of a million-kilowatt-level residential virtual power plant in Jiangsu aims to integrate large-capacity smart appliances into a cloud-based energy pool, facilitating flexible energy management [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Support - The National Energy Administration has initiated pilot projects for new power systems, encouraging the development of virtual power plants among other innovative solutions [8] - The China Electricity Council predicts that the highest electricity load this summer could increase by about 10 million kilowatts compared to 2024, with potential peaks reaching 1.57 billion kilowatts if temperatures rise significantly [8]