Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a potential consolidation phase for regular gold prices while suggesting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2023. Gold Market Analysis - The Spider Gold ETF has shown a bullish breakout pattern, which historically leads to consolidation phases after such breakouts [2][3]. - The expectation is for gold prices to remain rangebound over the next year, indicating a pause in upward momentum [4]. Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin has exhibited a similar pattern of consolidation and breakout, with a developing bullish trend [5][6]. - Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well in the fourth quarter, with a notable increase of 9% on average over the past decade [7]. Comparative Analysis - There has been a significant performance gap of nearly 20% between gold and Bitcoin, which has historically tended to close [9]. - As gold prices stabilize or decline, Bitcoin is expected to rally, particularly as the year progresses into the fourth quarter [10][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trading volume of treasury bond futures increased this week, and the long - buying momentum is accumulating. However, due to the potential strength of economic indicators in June and the uncertainty of trade conflicts after the expiration of tariff exemptions, the upward breakthrough of treasury bond futures still needs to wait [1][2][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. One - week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 30 to July 6, treasury bond futures first declined and then rose. On Monday, due to factors such as the central bank's monetary policy meeting not mentioning reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts, tight liquidity, and strong stock market performance, treasury bond futures fell across the board. In the following days, the market fluctuated with changes in factors like liquidity and the stock market. As of July 4, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.508, 106.250, 109.110, and 121.200 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.038, - 0.015, + 0.040, and + 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's Views - It is expected that the liquidity will remain loose next week, and the long - buying momentum in the bond market will continue to accumulate. However, the 6 - month economic indicators may perform well, and the trade conflict situation after the expiration of tariff exemptions is unclear, so the upward breakthrough of treasury bond futures still needs to wait [15] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 47 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 513.219 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 376.579 billion yuan, a decrease of 354.421 billion yuan and 404.073 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 23 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 72.139 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 21.649 billion yuan, a decrease of 569.501 billion yuan and 538.703 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 268 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 243.710 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 2.080 billion yuan, a decrease of 482.640 billion yuan in total issuance and an increase of 409.380 billion yuan in net financing compared to last week [22][23] 2.2 Secondary Market - The yields of treasury bonds showed a divergent trend. As of July 4, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.49%, 1.64%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of + 0.34, - 1.63, - 0.23, and + 0.25 basis points compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [29] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose. As of July 4, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.508, 106.250, 109.110, and 121.200 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.038, - 0.015, + 0.040, and + 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 31,216, 58,567, 70,281, and 81,784 lots respectively, with changes of + 155, + 2,890, + 7,159, and - 1,609 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 125,309, 193,474, 239,903, and 144,038 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,101, + 2,055, + 2,828, and + 4,633 lots compared to last weekend [38][41] 3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious this week. The liquidity was generally balanced and loose, and the basis of futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was around 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies was relatively scarce [45] 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of July 4, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.124, - 0.085, - 0.085, and + 0.130 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.006, - 0.005, - 0.075, and - 0.010 yuan compared to last weekend [48] 4. Weekly Observation of Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 2,027.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,375.3 billion yuan. As of July 4, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.49%, 1.42%, 1.31%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 51.75, - 49.37, - 5.80, and - 24.50 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.60 trillion yuan, 0.18 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.71%, slightly higher than last week [55][57][59] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased slightly. As of July 4, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 96.9880 compared to last weekend; the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 4.35%, up 6 basis points compared to last weekend; the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 270.9 basis points [64] 6. Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week. As of July 4, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,557.51, 6,216.34, and 1,650.47 points respectively, with changes of + 23.65, + 66.00, and + 2.97 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices also generally increased [68] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach. Specific strategies include holding long positions and waiting for price increases, paying attention to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage in treasury bond futures, and continuing to hold the strategy of steepening the yield curve, with a recommendation of the 2TS - T strategy and using spot bonds for short - term varieties [17][18][19]