Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weak performance of US inflation despite the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning why tariffs have not led to higher inflation and whether inflation will rebound in the second half of the year [2][6]. Group 1: Review of US Inflation Performance - In the first half of the year, US inflation was weaker than expected due to falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and limited transmission of tariffs [2][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mere 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, below the market expectation of 0.2% [6]. - Key factors contributing to the weak inflation included a decline in energy prices, stable rental and core service inflation, and a less-than-expected impact of tariffs on goods inflation [14][20][26]. Group 2: Analysis of Tariff Effects on Inflation - The slow actual collection of tariffs is a significant reason for the lack of noticeable inflation increase in the US [33]. - The effective tariff rate remains below theoretical levels due to delays in tariff collection processes, with actual tariff revenue reaching $15.6 billion in April against $276 billion in imports [33][34]. - Companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends in US Inflation - The article suggests that while the effects of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, they are expected to manifest in the second half of the year, potentially leading to an upward trend in inflation [57]. - Evidence indicates that retail prices have begun to accelerate since June, and various manufacturing price indices suggest increasing inflationary pressures [57][64]. - Bloomberg consensus forecasts predict that the peak of US CPI may occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a subsequent decline expected in 2026 [70].