Market Performance - US stock market opened higher driven by interest rate cut expectations, with Nasdaq reaching a new historical high of 22,000 points [1] - As of 22:30, Nasdaq rose by 0.41%, Dow Jones increased by over 500 points, surpassing 46,000 points, and S&P 500 gained 0.58% [1][2] Economic Data - August Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4] - Initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, marking the highest level in nearly four years, exceeding both previous and expected values [4][8] Inflation Insights - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [4] - Price pressures observed in various categories, including a 1.6% increase in fruit and vegetable prices and a 1.8% rise in automotive fuel prices [6][7] Company Movements - Oracle's stock fell over 4%, impacting its market capitalization, while its founder briefly surpassed Elon Musk as the world's richest person [3] - Several Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, with Century Internet rising nearly 15% and Zai Lab increasing over 13% [11][12] Investor Sentiment - Morgan Stanley reported that US investors' interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% expressing willingness to increase exposure [14] - Investment interest is expanding beyond internet and ADR sectors to include Hong Kong and onshore A-shares, focusing on areas like AI, semiconductors, and new consumption [14]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial strain on middle and low-income consumers is likely to suppress their spending, which may mitigate the inflationary impact of tariffs [1] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - There are indications that consumers are more financially constrained than a few years ago, leading to potential reductions in consumption [1] - Consumers may accept price increases on essential goods but will likely respond by downgrading their consumption or delaying purchases in other areas [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook is expected to be milder than previously anticipated, as consumers are no longer in a position of having ample cash and strong spending willingness as seen in 2022 [1] - By 2025, consumers are expected to feel financially tight, necessitating more careful budgeting [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish short-term trend for gold, with current trading around $3295.79 per ounce, reflecting a 0.37% increase [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision, while Powell and the majority favor a tight monetary policy due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [3] - The upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and core PCE data, are anticipated to influence gold prices, with potential for further declines if the data is unfavorable [3] Group 2 - The monthly closing for gold shows a long upper shadow indicating a potential top, with current price action suggesting further downside may be possible [5] - Weekly analysis indicates that since the historical high of $3500, gold has been in a consolidation phase, currently finding short-term support at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands [5] - The daily trend shows that recent declines were influenced by U.S.-EU tariff negotiations, with a focus on the $3300 support level and potential for further bearish positioning if prices fail to recover [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite dissent from two board members who advocate for a rate cut due to signs of labor market weakness [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, as two board members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tightening stance, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, but believes this is not sufficient to warrant a rate cut at this time [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][5] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [5] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The company predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be prepared for a rate cut in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends [4] - It is anticipated that inflation may rise in the latter half of the year, driven primarily by tariffs rather than overheating economic demand, suggesting that the Fed may choose to wait for inflation peaks before implementing any easing measures [4] - Given the relatively loose fiscal policy environment, economic growth and inflation are expected to remain sticky, leading to a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite opposition from two board members [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The majority of officials, including Powell, prefer to keep a tight monetary policy due to unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating resistance to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Future Implications - The inflation effects of tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in September [1] - If Trump continues to escalate tariffs, the timing for potential rate cuts may be further delayed [1] - The market may be underestimating the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining its independence, as the interest rate decision is made collectively by 12 voting members [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in September due to persistent inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market, despite some dissent among board members [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - Chairman Powell and the majority of officials favor a tight monetary policy, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflation effects from tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making a rate cut in September unlikely [1] - If President Trump's tariffs are further escalated, the timing for any potential rate cuts may be delayed [1] Independence of the Federal Reserve - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that it will not yield to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The decision-making process involves 12 voting members, suggesting that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would not significantly alter the direction of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the U.S. and the implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions in light of inflation, employment, and trade agreements [2][3][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is close to 0%, with a less than 60% chance for September, primarily due to stable employment and economic growth [2]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, emphasizing the need for clearer economic signals before making decisions [3][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has significantly decreased, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [5]. Group 2: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with key partners, including Japan and the EU, which has reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs [5]. - Current tariff levels are higher than before Trump's second term, but U.S. companies are absorbing some of these costs to maintain market share, indicating a potential impact on inflation [5]. - The article suggests that once tariffs are established, their inflation effects will be largely one-time and manageable, reducing the uncertainty that could hinder rate cuts [5][6]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels have not shown significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.5% and core PCE inflation at 2.7% [7]. - Research indicates that inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is nearing the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that inflation concerns may not be a barrier to rate cuts [7][8]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - Employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [9]. - The article highlights concerns about the high unemployment rate among recent graduates and the potential for increased layoffs if labor demand continues to decline [9]. - Despite stable consumer spending and growth in the service sector, sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate growth [9].

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing the end of the mid-year earnings forecast trend, with high forecast growth rates in certain industries leading to better market performance and upward adjustments in profit predictions [3][9][13] - Historical data indicates that the market's focus on mid-year earnings typically increases from June, peaking in early July before declining, suggesting a shift in market direction is imminent [3][9][13] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident in the U.S., with high dependency sectors seeing significant CPI increases, although the full effects of tariffs may not yet be realized [4][17][19] - Inventory levels are acting as a buffer for price transmission, with wholesalers being the main force behind inventory replenishment in the U.S. this year [4][17][19] - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are likely to pass on increased costs due to tariffs to consumers, indicating potential inflationary pressures [20][23][28] Group 3 - In China, the GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, slightly above expectations, but concerns about demand weakness persist, particularly in consumption and investment [4][39][41] - The export structure is changing, with a notable increase in the export growth rates of capital goods and intermediate goods, while some consumer goods are seeing a decline [39][40][41] - The differentiation between large and small enterprises is intensifying, with larger firms improving their market concentration and profitability outlook [41][42] Group 4 - The report suggests that despite short-term economic disturbances, the path for return on equity (ROE) in China is becoming clearer, driven by anti-involution policies and a stronger manufacturing sector [4][41][46] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic policies and international demand [4][46]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

Overview - The U.S. June core CPI data was slightly weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% against a market expectation of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to an expected 0.3%[2] - The overall CPI for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations[2] Inflation Drivers - The main contributors to the CPI rebound were rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services[22] - The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases[22] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June, indicating a warming in core goods inflation, with clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment showing upward trends[24] - However, the used car CPI fell by -0.7% month-on-month, although future trends may indicate a rebound according to the Manheim used car index[24] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see further inflationary pressures, particularly in the third quarter, which is expected to be a critical verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects[35] - The combination of rising tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from U.S. companies suggests that inflation may enter an upward trajectory[35] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflationary pressures in the third quarter[39] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector employment slowing down, which may influence the Fed's decision-making[39] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[41]