"那种认为（关税）成本必然转嫁导致通胀飙升的理论，必须经过消费者反应这一关的检验，"他表 示，"我认为消费者会接受某些刚需商品的价格上涨，但也必然会在其他领域通过降级消费或延迟购买 来抵制涨价。" 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京8月13日电 据华尔街日报报道，美联储巴尔金表示，当前有诸多迹象表明，中低收入消费 者比几年前更加捉襟见肘，这可能抑制其消费支出，从而减轻关税对通胀的推升作用。 谈及通胀前景时，巴尔金指出："我们会看到一定通胀，但幅度将比预期温和，因为现在已非2022年 ——当时消费者手握充裕现金且消费意愿强烈。2025年的现实是，消费者感到财力吃紧，因此不得不精 打细算。" 编辑：马萌伟 ...

以下文章来源于21世纪经济报道 ，作者21评论 21世纪经济报道 . 权威、专业、深度、有趣！用经济思维看世界。 文/清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员 孙长忠 美联储将于美东时间7 月 29 日至 30 日召开货币政策例会。目前市场认 为这次会议降息概率接近于 0 ， 9 月降息概率也不到 60% ，主要原因是 6 月 CPI 数据表明关税通胀效应有所显现，美联储仍需观察后续影响， 且目前美国就业和经济增长情况总体良好，不必急于降息。 最近一系列相关进展表明，美国经济金融状况和内外环境正在发生新的变化，美联储决策的重点和平衡点也将相应发生变化，本月会议 可能未必按市场预期行事。 美联储两位理事沃勒和鲍曼 6 月表示支持 7 月降息，主席鲍威尔随后在国会听证会上也没有排除这一可能性，表示对关税向零售价格的 传导小于预期持 " 完全开放 " 的态度并将影响美联储的政策，同时也强调预计关税将在 6 到 8 月间对价格产生显著影响，表示要等待形 势更加清晰明朗再作决定。也有 F OMC 其他委员表示关税将会使通胀上升 ， 应继续维持现行利率不变，但最新的形势变化也可能使美 联储官员调整想法。 从就业及经济增长看，疲软 ...

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing the end of the mid-year earnings forecast trend, with high forecast growth rates in certain industries leading to better market performance and upward adjustments in profit predictions [3][9][13] - Historical data indicates that the market's focus on mid-year earnings typically increases from June, peaking in early July before declining, suggesting a shift in market direction is imminent [3][9][13] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident in the U.S., with high dependency sectors seeing significant CPI increases, although the full effects of tariffs may not yet be realized [4][17][19] - Inventory levels are acting as a buffer for price transmission, with wholesalers being the main force behind inventory replenishment in the U.S. this year [4][17][19] - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are likely to pass on increased costs due to tariffs to consumers, indicating potential inflationary pressures [20][23][28] Group 3 - In China, the GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, slightly above expectations, but concerns about demand weakness persist, particularly in consumption and investment [4][39][41] - The export structure is changing, with a notable increase in the export growth rates of capital goods and intermediate goods, while some consumer goods are seeing a decline [39][40][41] - The differentiation between large and small enterprises is intensifying, with larger firms improving their market concentration and profitability outlook [41][42] Group 4 - The report suggests that despite short-term economic disturbances, the path for return on equity (ROE) in China is becoming clearer, driven by anti-involution policies and a stronger manufacturing sector [4][41][46] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic policies and international demand [4][46]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

Overview - The U.S. June core CPI data was slightly weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% against a market expectation of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to an expected 0.3%[2] - The overall CPI for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations[2] Inflation Drivers - The main contributors to the CPI rebound were rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services[22] - The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases[22] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June, indicating a warming in core goods inflation, with clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment showing upward trends[24] - However, the used car CPI fell by -0.7% month-on-month, although future trends may indicate a rebound according to the Manheim used car index[24] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see further inflationary pressures, particularly in the third quarter, which is expected to be a critical verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects[35] - The combination of rising tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from U.S. companies suggests that inflation may enter an upward trajectory[35] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflationary pressures in the third quarter[39] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector employment slowing down, which may influence the Fed's decision-making[39] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[41]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting rising global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. Core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies suggests inflation may enter an upward range [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions [34][40]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The latest inflation data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core CPI increasing by 2.9% [1][2] - The increase in inflation is primarily attributed to the impact of tariffs imposed by the US government on imports, which has started to affect consumer prices [2][5] - Despite the overall inflation data meeting expectations, there are signs of consumer fatigue, as prices for used cars and airline tickets have been declining [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July increased to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate changes [4][5] - The potential for a rate cut in December is also being discussed, with some economists predicting that the Fed may not lower rates until then due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - The rise in inflation expectations has led to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [7] - Investors are increasingly betting against long-term bonds, anticipating further increases in yields due to inflationary pressures [7][8] - Concerns about high government debt and fiscal spending are growing, with projections indicating that the US deficit could increase significantly in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the US government implements additional tariffs, potentially leading to a more severe inflation scenario [3][6] - The overall economic conditions are seen as stable, allowing the Fed time to evaluate incoming data before making significant policy changes [5][8] - The market is facing a rare scenario of simultaneous sell-offs in equities, bonds, and the dollar, indicating potential structural changes in the market landscape [8]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在美国关税威胁下，美股三大指数再度掉头向下。过去一周，道指累计下跌1.02%，标普500指数跌 0.31%，纳指跌0.08%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥总统辛鲍姆和 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品分别 征收30%的关税。此外，自8月1日起，美国对自加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税。 前路仍笼罩着巨大不确定性，新一轮关税威胁再度让美股市场如履薄冰。 新关税加剧不确定性 更多人持观望态度，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆表示，现在判断关税的通胀效应是一次性的价格跳升还 是持续性冲击为时过早。通胀可能会持续更长时间的一个风险是，用于制造产品的钢铁、铝和铜等中间 产品被征收关税，这可能会推高所有产品的价格，甚至是非进口产品。关税的影响将在夏季和9月份的 数据中体现出来，届时他希望能够勾勒出通胀走向的图景。 需要警惕的是，如果通胀大幅超出预期，美联储甚至可能加息。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙警告 称，基于美国物价压力，华尔街可能低估了美联储加息的可能性，这一情况"令人担忧"。 ...

近日，美国波士顿联储主席柯林斯周三释放关键信号，尽管她个人倾向于美联储在今年晚些时候降息，但政策走向仍存在高度不确定性，尤其是关税政策可 能持续推高通胀，进而影响货币政策调整的节奏。 柯林斯在马萨诸塞州发表讲话时表示，当前美国经济基本面稳固，货币政策处于"良好位置"，但未来几个月的政策调整将"高度依赖数据"，尤其是关税对通 胀的冲击能否快速消退。她指出，美国此前取消部分极端关税缓解了部分通胀压力，但剩余关税的影响尚未完全显现，预计到年底核心PCE（个人消费支出 价格指数）可能仍会"略高于"百分之三，远高于美联储百分之二的目标水平。 "随着企业库存调整完成，被征收关税的商品将逐步进入供应链，未来几个月通胀数据可能进一步上行。"柯林斯强调，如果价格压力持续高企，美联储可能 需要推迟降息，甚至重新评估政策路径。 上周美联储议息会议维持利率在百分之四点二五到四点五区间不变，但内部对降息时机分歧明显。以理事沃勒和鲍曼为代表的"降息派"认为，通胀已显著降 温，七月即可启动宽松；而鲍威尔则主张观望，强调需更多数据确认关税对经济的真实影响。柯林斯的表态更接近"中间派"，既未排除年内降息可能，也警 告政策可能因外部冲击转向。 ...