点击小程序查看报告原文 今年1-7月，我国出口同比增速要远高于市场预期。我们认为，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加速，而中国完整 的供应链叠加竞争力提升，使得我国中间品出口提速，对我国出口增速形成重要支撑。今年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，中 间品的出口增长主要是对新兴市场/发展中国家的中间品出口提升。在中间品出口的推动下，我国对非美地区的出口增速较高。行业上，机 电、贱金属、运输设备、精密仪器的中间品出口增速较高，或反映了我国制造业的规模经济优势，以及科技创新能力的提升。 2025年1-7月，我国出口以美元计价累计同比增长6.1%。而在全球关税扰动之下，市场对2025年的出口增速预期仅为0.88%（图表1）。为什么 我国出口增速要远高于市场预期？我们此前在 《解码出口新常态》 中提出，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加 速，带动了我国中间品的出口，是我国出口增速较高的重要支撑，而市场对此有所低估。 图表1：今年1-7月的出口同比增速超出市场预期 资料来源：iFinD，海关总署，中金公司研究部 2025年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，是出口 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 中国对美出口份额由谁来填补？ ——出口专题 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 对于中国出口份额而言，亚洲区域是填补美国市场的主力，非洲区域是次 要力量。中国对美出口份额回落后，这一缺口七成由亚洲填补，三成则由 非洲填补。第一，亚洲市场里，东盟填补最多 ...

Group 1 - The 19th China Consumer Economy Forum will be held in October in Beijing, focusing on quality innovation paths under new technologies and business models, aiming to create a safe, intelligent, and sustainable consumption ecosystem [1][2] - The forum will feature discussions on the integration of AI and quality management, addressing current consumer market trends and emphasizing that "quality first" remains the cornerstone of consumer trust and enterprise development [1][2] - The event will include insights from national quality regulatory departments, industry experts, and representatives from leading companies, discussing quality innovation and safety control [2][3] Group 2 - A special sub-forum on pharmaceuticals will focus on quality safety innovations, including a VR tour of "transparent factories" and the launch of a certification action for quality OTC drugs to ensure safe medication for families [3] - The forum will also promote local products through a "Hometown Good Goods" initiative, linking government, enterprises, and social forces to enhance regional products' market reach [3] - The forum will be broadcasted across various media platforms, including major news and video sites, to maximize outreach and engagement [3][4] Group 3 - The China Consumer Economy Forum has been successfully held 19 times, focusing on the quality improvement and changes in the consumption lives of Chinese citizens [4][5] - The forum aims to address the balance of supply and demand in the consumer goods manufacturing industry, contributing to the sustainable development of China's economy [5]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 出口韧性怎么看？ 证券研究报告 2025 全年出口增速预测 2025 年前 7 个月我国出口稳健增长，累计同比 6.1%（美元计价），高于 2024 全年 5.8%的增速。往后看，我们从定性和定量两个角度分析出口韧性。 中国出口额=全球出口额×中国出口占全球出口的比重；对出口的定性分 析，可以分为两部分：一是全球贸易活动的强度（我国出口的β），二是中 国占全球出口的份额（我国出口的α）。 全球商品贸易量增速：下半年或偏向降温 首先，美国"抢进口"前置需求。2024 年 10 月至今年 3 月美国"抢进口"、 家庭抢购囤货，商品实际消费增速均阶段性上行。需求前置，或令美国居 民消费、企业进口下半年降温。美国 6 月进口同比转负，反映需求收缩。 其次，关税扰动下，全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。关税扰动下， 企业资本开支意愿偏弱，全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。2018 年贸 易摩擦开启后，全球贸易增速也从上行转入下行。 第三，弱美元往往推升全球贸易增速，但下半年美元的下行或有限。历史 上看，宽松的货币环境、美元和利率下行时，全球贸易活动活跃度上升， 而偏紧的流动性环境，会抑制企业 ...

Export Performance - July exports increased significantly by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[6] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7% in July, compared to a 16.1% drop in June, primarily due to the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions[6] - Exports to non-US regions, particularly ASEAN and Africa, showed strong performance with increases of 16.6% and 42.4% respectively[6] Trade Dynamics - The indirect trade channels are expected to continue supporting exports, particularly for intermediate and capital goods[6] - Capital goods exports to Southeast Asia and Africa maintained high growth rates, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 19.4% and 39.1% respectively over the first five months[6] - The delay in tariff exemption deadlines by the Trump administration has potentially stimulated a new wave of foreign trade orders[6] Market Outlook - The weakening demand in the US market is likely to continue affecting consumer goods exports in the short term[6] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions may limit the support for direct exports to the US, especially for consumer products[6] - The overall import growth in July was supported by stable alternative supply channels for major commodities, with significant increases in imports of grains, soybeans, and crude oil[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations, highlighting the trade deficit data and the outcomes of the latest economic talks between the two countries [3][8]. Trade Deficit Analysis - In June 2025, the US trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $60.2 billion, down from a revised $71.7 billion in May, marking a 16% month-over-month decline [4]. - Exports in June totaled $277.3 billion, a slight decrease of $1.3 billion or 0.5% from May, while imports fell to $337.5 billion, down $12.8 billion or 3.7% [4][6]. - The reduction in the trade deficit was primarily due to a decrease in the goods deficit, which fell by $11.4 billion to $85.9 billion, alongside a slight increase in the services surplus [6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The decline in goods exports was driven by reductions in industrial supplies and materials, as well as computer accessories, which decreased by $4.8 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively [6]. - Conversely, capital goods and consumer goods saw increases in exports, rising by $2 billion and $1 billion, respectively [6]. - On the import side, consumer goods, industrial supplies, and automotive parts all experienced declines, with consumer goods decreasing by $8.4 billion [6]. Year-to-Date Trade Performance - For the first half of 2025, the US trade deficit increased by $161.5 billion compared to the same period last year, representing a 38.3% rise [6]. - Exports rose by $82.2 billion year-over-year, a 5.2% increase, while imports surged by $243.7 billion, a 12.1% increase [6]. US-China Trade Relations - In June, China's exports to the US showed signs of recovery, with the year-over-year decline narrowing by 18.4 percentage points, amounting to approximately $38.17 billion [7]. - The share of exports to the US in China's total exports increased from 9.1% to 11.7% [7]. Recent Economic Talks - Recent US-China economic talks held in Stockholm focused on trade relations and macroeconomic policies, with both sides expressing a commitment to continue dialogue and cooperation [8]. - The talks resulted in an agreement to extend the suspension of certain tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days, aiming to stabilize trade relations [8].

Group 1 - In June, the trade deficit for goods and services decreased to $602 billion, down $115 billion from May, marking a 16% month-over-month decline [1][3] - Exports in June totaled $2,773 billion, a slight decrease of $13 billion or 0.5% from May, while imports fell to $3,375 billion, down $128 billion or 3.7% [1][3] - The increase in the trade deficit for the first half of the year was $1,615 billion, a 38.3% rise compared to the same period last year, with exports up by $822 billion (5.2%) and imports up by $2,437 billion (12.1%) [3] Group 2 - In June, U.S. exports to China decreased by approximately $381.7 billion, with the decline narrowing by 18.4 percentage points compared to previous months [4] - The U.S. trade talks with China in Stockholm focused on economic relations and macroeconomic policies, aiming to stabilize trade relations and inject certainty into global economic development [4] - Both parties agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days, reflecting a commitment to further dialogue and cooperation [4]

Group 1 - The trade deficit in the U.S. narrowed significantly in June, reaching the lowest level since September 2023, with a reduction of 16% to $60.2 billion [1] - Total imports decreased by 3.7%, primarily due to the value of imported goods falling to the lowest level since March 2024, while exports saw a relatively smaller contraction [1] - Consumer goods imports hit the lowest level since September 2020, with declines in industrial goods and automotive imports, although capital equipment imports increased [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that U.S. companies had previously stockpiled goods ahead of significant tariff increases announced by President Trump on April 2, which may now be subsiding [1] - The U.S. economy showed an annualized growth rate of 3% in the second quarter, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP, contrasting with a nearly 5 percentage point drag in the first quarter [1] - The White House announced adjusted tariffs for countries that do not reach trade agreements by the August 1 deadline, with potential future tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals expected to disrupt international trade further [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced the completion of the allocation of 69 billion yuan for the third batch of special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, with plans to allocate another 69 billion yuan in October, aiming to fulfill the annual target of 300 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - The NDRC will collaborate with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, and other departments to ensure local governments fulfill their funding responsibilities and detail the usage plans for the allocated funds [1] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing product quality and price supervision to prevent risks such as "price increases followed by subsidies" and fraudulent claims for subsidies [1] - The goal is to ensure the orderly and balanced use of funds until the end of the year [1]

Core Insights - Morocco's imports increased by 8.9% in the first half of 2025, reaching $43.8 billion, while exports grew by 3.1% to $25.96 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $17.84 billion, which is an 18.4% year-on-year increase [1] Import Analysis - The surge in imports was driven by a 29.3% increase in raw material imports, totaling $2.32 billion, a 14.9% rise in equipment imports to $10.25 billion, and a 13.3% growth in consumer goods imports reaching $10.66 billion [1] - However, energy imports saw a decline of 7.4%, amounting to $5.83 billion [1] Export Analysis - The primary contributor to export growth was phosphates and derivatives, which increased by 18.9% to $5.11 billion [1] - Key sectors faced challenges, with electronic and electrical product exports declining by 7.8%, textile and leather exports down by 4%, and automotive manufacturing exports decreasing by 3.6% [1] Trade Deficit Outlook - The significant imbalance between soaring import demand and limited export growth suggests that Morocco's trade deficit is expected to widen further over the next two years [1]