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华泰证券:维持美联储9月首次降息、年内2次降息的判断
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 00:09
Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff pressures to consumers, thus preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. inflation data for July shows that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is moderate, with the maximum price increase occurring 10-15 weeks after the announcement of tariffs [1] - The report suggests that while tariffs may continue to gently push up core inflation due to an increase in tariffs in August, weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflationary pressure [1] Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The demand slowdown and accelerated efforts to deport illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a rate cut in September and two rate cuts within the year, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions [1]
美联储博斯蒂克:企业表示当前的需求依然强劲,足以支撑其现有员工规模,尽管他们正在制定应急计划。
news flash· 2025-05-20 19:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that companies are reporting strong current demand, which is sufficient to maintain their existing workforce levels, despite the development of contingency plans [1] Group 2 - Companies are indicating that they are preparing for potential challenges while still experiencing robust demand [1] - The emphasis on maintaining employee levels suggests confidence in ongoing business operations [1]