1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual commodities, the mid - term and short - term structures are as follows: - Crude oil: Mid - term and short - term both are bearish [1] - EB: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PX: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PTA: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PP: Mid - term bearish, short - term switching for verification [1] - Urea: Mid - term neutral (sideways), short - term bullish [1] - Methanol: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Rubber: Mid - term bearish, short - term sideways [1] - Caustic soda: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG): Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Plastic: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening of the Iranian geopolitical situation has led to a continued decline in crude oil prices. The mid - term downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse due to the expected mid - term surplus caused by OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and short - term downward drivers include the significant weakening of potential geopolitical bullish factors and the expected increase in Iranian crude oil supply after the lifting of sanctions [1]. - For other commodities, short - term bullish factors are often related to macro - sentiment relief, downstream demand expectations, or temporary supply disruptions, but most face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [1][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude oil - Logic: OPEC+ accelerating production increases leads to a mid - term surplus expectation, making the mid - term downward trend difficult to reverse. In the short term, the potential geopolitical bullish factors have significantly weakened, and the increase in Iranian crude oil supply after the lifting of sanctions is a short - term downward driver [1]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also bearish. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is around 465. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 465 [1][2]. Benzene ethylene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of the early - week disk was driven by the relief of macro - sentiment, the expected recovery of downstream export demand, and the Hengli plant failure. However, the supply will return to normal, and it will face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [6]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. Today, it tested the short - term support at 7515 after a decline. Whether it breaks through effectively is unclear, and it needs to wait for one or two more hourly lines for confirmation. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support or try when it effectively breaks down and is not a long - negative line [6]. PX - Logic: The relief of macro - sentiment, the expected new round of "export rush" in the downstream, and the continuous de - stocking of PX and PTA have promoted the valuation repair and rebound. However, the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price will gradually appear after the release of short - term sentiment [7]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support still refers to the low point on May 13. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support [9]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the relief of macro - sentiment, the expected new round of "export rush" in the downstream, and the continuous de - stocking of PX and PTA have promoted the valuation repair and rebound. But it will face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support still refers to the low point on May 13. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support [12]. PP - Logic: The low inventory this week, the short - term shutdown of Iranian plants, and the short - term sentiment of Sino - US relaxation stimulated the rebound. However, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable as the short - term sentiment fades and import pressure rises [13]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term upward structure may end. Today, it broke below the non - standard short - term support at 7135. The strategy is to look for a short - selling opportunity when the rebound fails to break through 7155 and forms a reversal pattern [15]. Urea - Logic: The news of opening up exports has been confirmed, but the total export volume will not exceed that in 2023. After the bullish factors are digested, the supply side has a strong expectation of increase due to sufficient profits. The upward space of this round of increase driven by export news is limited [16]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below still focuses on the low point on May 8. The position has decreased at the recent high, and the trading volume has weakened, which needs to be tracked. The strategy is to wait and see for now [16]. Methanol - Logic: Similar to PP, the low inventory this week, the short - term shutdown of Iranian plants, and the short - term sentiment of Sino - US relaxation stimulated the rebound. However, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable as the short - term sentiment fades and import pressure rises [19]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level upward structure. It decreased positions and declined today. The short - term support still refers to 2330. The trading volume has weakened at the recent high, and the short - term upward trend is difficult to sustain. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and look for a short - selling opportunity after the breakdown [19]. Rubber - Logic: The short - term bullish sentiment of Sino - US relaxation has basically been digested. The tire enterprise operating rate has dropped significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. Although Thailand has postponed the start of tapping, the actual implementation may not be comprehensive, and the supply increase expectation is strong under normal weather conditions. It is still an expectation of weak supply and demand [23]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is sideways. The trading volume is insufficient at the upper edge of the oscillation range recently, and it is difficult to break through. The upper resistance still refers to the high point on April 8. It is still in a narrow - range oscillation to repair the oversold situation. The strategy is to wait and see for now [23]. Caustic soda - Logic: Low profit, high operating rate, non - aluminum off - season, and the expected recovery of alumina demand after restart. The short - term contradiction is not clear [24]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It decreased positions and declined today, and there are concerns in terms of trading volume. The short - term support below is around 2515. The strategy is to wait and see [24]. Ethylene glycol (EG) - Logic: The short - term bullish sentiment of Sino - US relaxation has basically been digested, the sentiment has weakened, and the upward space for further rebound is limited [26]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. The short - term support below refers to 4315. The strategy is to wait and see due to the divergence between the mid - term and short - term trends [26]. Plastic - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It decreased positions and declined today, and the short - term support below refers to 7100. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30].