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原油成品油早报-2025-04-03
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-04-03 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and strengthened. Expectations of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, OPEC's announced supplementary production cuts, and low inventory levels supported absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased. US gasoline apparent demand decreased week - on - week and was flat year - on - year. Gasoline cracking rebounded slightly, domestic independent refinery profits declined, and refinery operations continued to rebound while major refinery operations declined. OPEC and tightened sanctions on Iran led to supply tightening expectations. Recently, refinery profits recovered, and global gasoline profit expectations improved. Starting from April, refinery operations will increase, and the demand side is moderately positive, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The US tariff policy on April 2nd had a significant impact. If the oil price is below $60, it will weaken non - OPEC production. This week, the contango of the three - market crude oil fluctuated and strengthened. Absolute inventory and peak - season expectations supported near - end prices, but under the pattern of continuous OPEC production increase, absolute prices will still face pressure in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in Iran's exports and production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From March 27 to April 2, WTI increased by $0.51 to $71.71, BRENT increased by $0.46 to $74.95, and DUBAI increased by $0.65 to $76.56. SC decreased by 3.90 to 552.20, and OMAN decreased by 1.13 to 74.26. Other related products such as gasoline, diesel, and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Daily News - On April 2, US President Trump signed two executive orders on so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some trading partners. The benchmark tariff rate will take effect at 0:00 on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff will take effect at 0:00 on April 9. Goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement will continue to be tariff - exempt, and the tariff on non - compliant goods will remain at 25% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent met with 16 multinational banks and federal law enforcement agencies in Washington on Wednesday to discuss US sanctions policies against Iran, including measures to reduce Iran's oil exports. He said the Trump administration is maximizing economic pressure to disrupt Iran's access to financial resources [3]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: For the week ending March 28, US EIA crude oil inventory was 616500 barrels (expected - 211600 barrels, previous value - 334100 barrels), EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 237300 barrels (previous value - 75500 barrels), EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 28500 barrels (previous value 28600 barrels), EIA gasoline inventory was - 155100 barrels (expected - 172000 barrels, previous value - 144600 barrels), EIA refined oil inventory was 26400 barrels (expected - 101300 barrels, previous value - 42100 barrels), and EIA refinery utilization rate was 86% (expected 87.7%, previous value 87%) [4]. - This week (March 20), the operating rate of major refineries decreased, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel decreased. The production of major refineries' gasoline and diesel decreased, while that of local refineries increased. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries' gasoline and diesel increased. This week, gasoline inventory increased by 0.37%, and diesel inventory decreased by 1.28%. Major refineries' comprehensive profit decreased month - on - month, and local refineries' comprehensive profit also decreased month - on - month [4].