传统流动性研究范式
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【广发宏观钟林楠】居民活动收支表的构建、分析与运用
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-09-25 23:47
Group 1 - The article discusses the limitations of traditional liquidity research, which categorizes liquidity into narrow (money) and broad (credit) dimensions, and highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach to understand the flow and usage of liquidity in the real economy [1][12][14] - The construction of a household activity income and expenditure table is proposed, integrating data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the central bank to provide a clearer picture of household income and expenditure dynamics [2][16][19] Group 2 - The income side of the household activity table includes seven components, with total household income growing at an average annual rate of approximately 6%, reaching 106 trillion yuan in 2023 [2][19] - Labor remuneration constitutes 45%-49% of total income, while property income remains stable at around 5%-6%, indicating a shift in income sources and a recovery in household balance sheets as debt income has decreased from 10% to 5% [2][19][21] Group 3 - The expenditure side of the household activity table shows that interest payments have increased from 1.5% to 1.7%, while actual final consumption has risen from 54% to 57%, reflecting changes in fiscal support and consumer behavior [3][24][25] - The analysis indicates that the structure of household spending has remained consistent with income growth, but the capital formation total has decreased from 14% to 10%, primarily due to a slowdown in housing and individual investment [3][24][25] Group 4 - A quarterly household activity income and expenditure table is proposed to analyze short-term changes in household income, consumption, and financial investment behaviors [4][33] - The article notes that disposable income growth is expected to rebound in 2024Q2-2025Q1, while consumption is projected to follow a similar trend, although it may decline in 2025Q2 [4][34][37] Group 5 - Financial investment is defined as the portion of total income remaining after consumption and non-financial investments, with three notable expansions of residual liquidity since 2016, indicating shifts in investment preferences towards stocks and bonds [6][42][46] - The article highlights that in the first half of 2025, the flow of residual liquidity shifted from bond assets to stock assets, reflecting changing market conditions and investment opportunities [7][49][50]