传统渠道价值

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谁是下一个IP文创龙头:传统渠道价值的护城河
2025-04-22 04:46
Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of **晨光股份 (Morning Glory Co., Ltd.)**, a leading player in the traditional stationery and IP product market, particularly focusing on the **潮玩 (trendy toys)** segment and its distribution channels [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Importance of Traditional Channels - Traditional channels, such as school-side stores and grocery stores, are crucial for brands like **卡游 (Kawoo)** and **布鲁可 (Blukoo)** to reach younger consumers and facilitate immediate purchases, especially as the main consumer demographic for trendy toys is aged 25-35, accounting for over 70% of the market [1][2]. - The rapid expansion of trendy toy brands heavily relies on traditional distribution channels, with over 80% of sales for brands like Blukoo and Kawoo coming from these channels [2][3]. Distribution Network and Market Coverage - **晨光股份** has established a comprehensive distribution network, with nearly 70,000 retail terminals using its branding by the end of 2024, covering approximately 50% of the nation's primary schools despite a decline in the total number of schools from 257,000 in 2010 to 143,500 in 2023 [1][4][6]. - The company has a strong presence in 1,200 cities through partnerships and has over 700 large retail stores and thousands of authorized shops on various e-commerce platforms [4]. Inventory Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory turnover days significantly from 78.8 days in 2015 to 28.6 days in 2024, enhancing its inventory management capabilities through digital tools and strategic initiatives [1][7]. Product Optimization Strategy - **晨光股份** has implemented a strategy to optimize its product structure by phasing out low-margin SKUs and developing higher-end products. The price of writing tools has increased from 0.177 RMB in 2011 to 1.28 RMB in 2024, with a gross margin rising to 42.9% [2][8]. - The price of student stationery has also increased from 0.34 RMB in 2011 to 0.67 RMB in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of around 34% [8]. Market Perception and Future Outlook - Despite skepticism regarding the value of traditional stationery sales channels, **晨光股份** is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and market presence, especially as the market evolves [10]. - Future profit predictions estimate **晨光股份** will achieve a net profit of 1.61 billion RMB in 2025 and 1.82 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.6 and 15.6, indicating a favorable valuation for a company maintaining double-digit growth [11]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s focus on enhancing single-store quality and utilizing digital tools has led to improved operational efficiency and sales performance [7]. - The ongoing transformation in consumer preferences towards trendy toys and IP products highlights the need for companies to adapt their strategies while leveraging traditional channels effectively [2][10].