Core Viewpoint - This year has been significant for precious metals, with gold and silver experiencing substantial price increases, attracting investor attention. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold compared to silver and platinum, citing higher certainty in its performance [1]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - From the beginning of 2025 to the present, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen by 66%, 65%, and 50% respectively, driven by capital inflows from private investors following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and expectations that these metals could catch up to gold's performance [4]. - Speculation regarding increased jewelry demand in China has led to a surge in platinum prices, prompting Western investors to allocate funds to smaller, less liquid markets like platinum after gold's rise [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has increased volatility in these metals, as they are included in the U.S. "Critical Minerals List," which could face tariffs up to 50% [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Rental Markets - Gold is less susceptible to short-term physical squeezes due to the availability of large institutional reserves, unlike silver, platinum, and palladium, which lack such liquidity support [6]. - Tightening London inventories have led to increased rental rates for metals, as traders turn to the rental market to alleviate liquidity pressures [6]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Implications - The likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on silver, platinum, and palladium is low, as domestic production is limited and tariffs would likely increase costs without significantly boosting supply [8]. - U.S. domestic mining capacity for platinum and palladium is currently underutilized, and even full production would only marginally reduce net import volumes [9]. Group 4: Inventory Trends and Market Mechanisms - The increase in U.S. exchange inventories reflects the "spot-to-futures" mechanism between London and New York, rather than a directional judgment on tariffs [12]. - The potential for U.S. tariffs introduces delivery risks, prompting traders to preemptively allocate metals to the U.S. to mitigate exposure to tariff uncertainties [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - High volatility is expected to persist until U.S. trade measures are clarified, which would allow metals to return to London and ease inventory tightness [17]. - Platinum and palladium may face dual industrial demand pressures, with speculative price increases leading to delayed purchases by industrial consumers [18]. - Gold remains the most reliable investment choice among precious metals due to its structural support from central bank purchases and ETF demand, while silver, platinum, and palladium have higher uncertainty in their outlooks [21][22].