Workflow
估值与性价比
icon
Search documents
十年高点A股还能上车吗?陈嘉禾:投资者需学会算账 关注性价比
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-20 16:03
Core Viewpoint - The core of investment lies in valuation and cost-effectiveness, rather than merely identifying good companies or stocks [1] Market Comparison - Compared to the bull market ten years ago, the current A-share market shows significant differences, with the index currently around 3700 points, while it peaked at 5178.19 points a decade ago [2] - The overall economic and market fundamentals have improved significantly over the past ten years, suggesting that if valuation levels remained constant, the index should be much higher [2] - Regulatory environments have changed, with stricter controls on credit funds entering the market, leading to a more stable and sustainable "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" [2] Valuation Levels - The overall valuation of the A-share market is not considered expensive, with major indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 having dynamic P/E ratios around ten times, which is relatively low compared to global markets [3] - There is significant divergence in individual stock valuations, with some stocks having P/E ratios in the tens or even hundreds, while others, especially in the Hong Kong market, have P/E ratios as low as six or seven times [3][6] Influencing Factors - Various factors such as U.S.-China relations, real estate trends, and financial risk management will influence market fluctuations, and the current macroeconomic context is markedly different from ten years ago [4] - Investors often base their decisions on qualitative assessments of a bull market, which may lack rigorous logic, leading to potential misjudgments [4] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on large-cap companies due to their better transparency, lower risk of "black swan" events, and more favorable valuations compared to small-cap stocks [5][6] - The investment strategy should prioritize valuation and cost-effectiveness, rather than following popular trends or sectors that may be overvalued [9] Recommendations for Investors - Investors should adopt a mindset focused on calculating real returns from their investments, rather than speculating on short-term market movements [10] - A comprehensive view of all assets as a single entity can help in assessing overall profitability and health, leading to clearer investment decisions [10]