最近五年的宏观研究与投资经验，告诉我三点： 第一，资本市场定价的是未来，未来资本化的是想象力，因此估值是一门心学。 原因在于，一是次贷危机以来货币政策范式改变，从利率导向转向货币主义的QE，也就是"直升机撒 钱"，导致流动性严重过剩+资产荒。于是，过剩的流动性在过度交易当前基本面后，只能越来越长久 期地交易未来；二是科技创新风起云涌，从大数据到大模型，从数字革命到AI革命，为未来叙事提供 了丰富素材。 第二，估值需要动物精神，动物精神有周期性，即亢奋不能太久，悲观也不能太久，伴随着牛熊交替。 牛和熊都是典型的动物精神。 AI企业本身的估值泡沫会进入疲弱阶段，但"AI+产业"的估值周期需要再平衡。 预判未来一定要回看过去。美股这一轮牛市自ChatGPT横空出世以来，已经持续了三年。从群体心理学 的角度，一个长达三年的叙事很容易产生疲劳，甚至是厌倦，甚至是恐惧，这是高估值之上的本能恐 高。除非，有新的叙事刺激。 A股这轮牛市则持续了一年半（约17个月）。从历史数据看，A股每轮牛市平均时间约为14个月（420天 左右）；若剔除早期市场初创阶段波动剧烈的短期牛市、聚焦核心全面牛市，平均持续时间约为18~20 个月。按 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the advantages of the Hong Kong stock market are becoming more prominent, with increasing attention from both domestic and foreign capital, leading to an overall bullish trend [1] - The report highlights that the current long-term bull market for Hong Kong stocks, which began in the fourth quarter of last year, is now at a mid-stage, with liquidity and valuation cycles showing signs of recovery [1] - The report notes that while overseas liquidity tightening poses a significant challenge, recent lower-than-expected U.S. employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, which may quickly alleviate macro liquidity pressures on the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2 - Investment targets recommended include focusing on core growth sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and technology sectors, which are expected to drive overall valuation increases [2] - The report suggests that the valuation recovery in these sectors is likely to continue, benefiting the overall market [2] Group 3 - Specific companies to watch in the consumer electronics sector include Xiaomi Group, Lenovo Group, AAC Technologies, SMIC, and GoerTek [3] - In the information technology services sector, notable companies include VST Holdings, Kingdee International, and Ninebot [3] - In the AI and robotics sector, key players are Fourth Paradigm, SenseTime, and UBTECH [3] - In the new energy vehicle sector, companies such as BYD and Leap Motor are highlighted [3]