Group 1 - Southbound funds have significantly increased their net purchases of Hong Kong stocks, totaling 1.38 trillion HKD this year, marking a record high [1] - The Hang Seng Index has seen a year-to-date increase of nearly 30%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 25% [1] - In the second half of the year, ETF funds have accelerated their net purchases of Hong Kong assets, with notable inflows into various ETFs, including over 350 million HKD into the Hong Kong Internet ETF and over 200 million HKD into the Hong Kong Securities ETF [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks have unique advantages compared to A-shares, aligning well with current trends in AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Despite recent adjustments, the mid-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains bullish, supported by incremental capital inflows and the gathering of quality assets [2] - The AI-driven technology sector is expected to be the main theme in the Hong Kong market, with dividend-paying stocks benefiting from policy support and low interest rates [2] Group 3 - The "AI bubble" narrative in the US has led to mispricing of Chinese assets, particularly in the tech sector, where the valuation of Hong Kong tech stocks is about half that of the Nasdaq [3] - The adjustment in Hong Kong stocks has been significant, suggesting that the rebound potential may exceed that of A-shares [3] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on high-dividend and turnaround assets to navigate market uncertainties while maintaining a long-term growth perspective [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing adjustments, but the underlying bullish trend, particularly in technology stocks, is expected to continue over the next two to three years, with a potential shift to a broader bull market by 2026 [2][3][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.1%. Notably, NIO dropped over 2%, and Baidu Group fell more than 1%, while the new stock Quantitative Party surged over 165% [1]. - Vanke Enterprises saw a decline of over 5% as the company plans to hold a meeting regarding the extension of its bond [1]. Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market volatility is primarily driven by liquidity, sentiment, and risk appetite, with a focus on core assets amid economic data concerns [3]. - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: AI-driven industry trends, capacity cycle reversals, and sectors related to export and commodities influenced by external uncertainties [2]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as a "valuation pit," with significant room for valuation recovery, especially in the context of low historical valuations compared to global indices [5][6]. Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The market's performance is largely influenced by liquidity conditions, with expectations of continued inflows from both domestic and foreign investors as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting phase [6]. - Historical data indicates that short-term market adjustments are normal, with average declines of 7% during minor corrections and 17% during significant liquidity tightening [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector in Hong Kong is currently undergoing adjustments, but its long-term investment value is becoming increasingly apparent [4]. - The AI sector remains a focal point for investment, with expectations of continued growth despite recent market fluctuations [3][4].

港股科技50ETF(513980)紧密跟踪中证港股通科技指数，前十大成分股中，包含阿里巴巴等一众港股科 技行业龙头。看好港股科技股，不妨关注港股科技50ETF(513980)及其联接基金（A类：016495；C类： 016496），助力布局港股优质资产。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 市场11月26日消息，港股今日开盘集体上涨，盘面上，生物制药板块涨幅居前，截至11：30，港股科技 50ETF(513980)上涨0.93%，该基金已连续4个交易日获得场外资金净申购。热门个股中，健康之路涨超 7%，美团-W涨超5%，三生制药、康方生物等涨超4%。 消息面上，当地时间2025年11月24日，某美联储理事表示主张在12月实施一次降息，考虑到其作为下一 任美联储主席热门候选人的特殊背景，市场对12月美联储降息的预期明显升温。此前流动性收缩一直是 制约港股走势的核心因素之一，随着这一压力趋于缓解，有望为港股打开新一轮的发展空间。 国泰海通策略表示，中期维度看，增量资金流入+优质资产汇聚的港股牛市行情有望延续。若后续压制 港股的短期因素解除，中期维度看港股增量资金明确，且汇聚了优质的中国稀缺性资产，有望继续支撑 本 ...

Core Conclusions - Since October, the Hong Kong stock market has entered a phase of adjustment, primarily due to significant prior gains, tight USD liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - Market adjustments during a bull market are normal; historically, small pullbacks average a decline of 7%, while larger pullbacks average a decline of 17% [2][9] - USD liquidity is a short-term disturbance, and the ongoing AI wave suggests that the influx of new capital and the gathering of quality assets may continue to support the bull market in Hong Kong stocks [2][5] Investment Highlights - From a mid-term perspective, the influx of new capital and the gathering of quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, especially if short-term factors suppressing the market are resolved [4][20] - Hong Kong stocks possess scarcity value, particularly in sectors aligned with the current industrial development trends, such as AI applications [4][20] - There is potential for continued inflow of southbound capital, driven by institutional forces, which may further propel the Hong Kong market upward [4][20] - The technology sector, driven by AI, remains a key focus for market performance, with Hong Kong stocks benefiting from favorable policies regarding dividends and low interest rates [4][21] Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index reaching new highs in early October, with maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively [5][7] - However, since mid-October, the market has experienced adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index declining by a maximum of 5.1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 8.1% [6][7] - The adjustments are attributed to tight USD liquidity and concerns over AI sector bubbles, as well as significant prior gains in the market [7][8] Historical Context of Market Adjustments - In bull markets, adjustments can be categorized into two types: small pullbacks averaging a maximum decline of 7% and larger pullbacks averaging a maximum decline of 17% [9][13] - Historical data shows that small pullbacks typically do not exceed 30 trading days, while larger pullbacks average around 53 trading days [9][13] - The current market adjustment aligns with historical patterns, suggesting that the overall upward trend may remain intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index reaching new highs in October, followed by a notable correction due to various factors including tightening dollar liquidity and concerns over AI valuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of October, the Hang Seng Index had a maximum increase of 47% and the Hang Seng Tech Index had a maximum increase of 61% for the year. However, since mid-October, these indices have seen a maximum pullback of 8% and 20% respectively [1][3]. - The cumulative year-to-date gains for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have narrowed to 27.78% and 23.66% respectively [3]. Factors Behind Market Adjustment - The market correction is attributed to multiple factors: tightening dollar liquidity, a significant drop in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a technical need for market pullbacks after substantial prior gains [3][4]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity was exacerbated by a government shutdown in the U.S., which led to a temporary halt in government spending and increased dollar liquidity pressure [3][13]. Historical Context of Market Adjustments - Historical data indicates that in bull markets, small pullbacks average a maximum decline of about 7%, while larger pullbacks average around 17%, often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - The average duration of small pullbacks in bull markets is typically less than 30 trading days, while larger pullbacks can last around 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current adjustments, the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue, supported by ongoing AI trends and the influx of quality assets [2][13]. - The potential for continued inflow of southbound capital is strong, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year, indicating a favorable outlook for the Hong Kong market [14]. - The technology sector, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements, is anticipated to remain a key driver of market performance moving forward [14].

>>>>> ETF早知道 >>>>> ETF早知道 FF早知道 <<<< >>>>> FEFR 2025 国际早知道 Nov ETFEFR海 <<<< 市场温度计 >>>>> 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 ETFEFA --- 75% + 75% --- 75% -- + 25% -- + 25% -- + 25% ETF 早知道 -4.02% -2.45% -3.41% > > <<<< 上证指数 深证成指 创业板指 注:温度计水银条由对应指数的近十年市盈率分位数表示,总值为100%。数据来源:iFind,截至 2025.11.21，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指的近十年市盈率分位数分别为94.61%、77.57%、35.6% e 0 2 ETFEF 6 板块热力图 ETFEFRE <<<< 短期轮动走向·观九宫热力值 0.32% -0.40% -0.88% 食品饮料 REEE l = ETFOF B -1.00% -1.62% -4.70% 农林牧渔 银行 基础化工 -5.17% -5.26% -5.50% 综合 电力设备 有色金属 数据来源:iFind,截至2025.11.21,以申万一级行业区分,分别列出 ...

【宏观】美联储内部分歧仍大 全球大类资产表现。 本周（2025.11.17-2025.11.23），多数资产价格均有明显下跌，大宗商品方面， IPE布油期货下跌2.8%。标普-高盛商品指数下跌 2.2%，COMEX铜下跌1.1%,，伦敦金现下跌0.4%，幅度相对较小。 主要经济体股市普遍下跌，其中，恒生指数下跌5.1%，幅度最大。 上证综指下跌3.9%，日经225指数下跌3.5%，标普500指数下跌1.9%。新兴市场股票指 数下跌3.0%，跌幅大于发达市场股票指数（下跌2.0%）。债市方面，10年期美债收益率较前一周回落8BP至4.06%，国内10Y国债期货价格与上周持平，中 债总全价指数下跌0.1%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回升，报收100.15，人民币兑美元贬值0.1%，日元兑美元贬值1.2%。 经济： 美国方面：9月美国非农数据喜忧参半，新增非农就业大超预期但失业率进一步回升至4.4%。房地产方面，成屋销售同比与环比增速均有所回落；截 至11月15日当周，美国首次申请失业金人数维持稳定。市场交易层面5年期通胀预期较上周回落6BP至2.32%，10年期通胀预期回落4BP至2.24%。 欧洲方面： 1 ...

广发证券发布研究报告称，港股牛市的基础并未破坏，但演进方式更可能呈现"震荡上行、重心缓升"的 特征，而非单边快速上涨，港股的11月基本面驱动效应强，仍然要重视高景气板块的价值。在配置上， 仍然采用杠铃策略，港股稳定价值类资产(尤其是AH溢价相对较高H股)作为底仓长期配置，港股景气成 长类资产的产业逻辑依然坚实，震荡中孕育机会。一旦上述Trigger出现，资金可能会流入中国最具备全 球竞争优势的核心资产，例如恒生科技(互联网、新能源车)等。 关于港股后市 恒生指数高开0.22%，恒生科技指数涨0.26%。小鹏汽车涨超2%，网易涨超1%。耀才证券金融跌超 4%，蚂蚁入股耀才证券金融未达完成条件，或延长最终截止日期。 "港股上涨行情仍未结束，经过此前调整再度迎来布局良机。"方正证券策略分析师朱成成认为，当前我 国经济基本面稳中有进、韧性较强，同时政策利好不断释放，A股、港股市场信心显著回升。此外，南 向资金仍在持续加速流入港股市场，叠加美联储降息周期开启，港股流动性环境也有望进一步受益。 国泰海通证券指出，①当前港股位置不高，对比历史/海外有上行空间，调整后性价比凸显，估值盈利 匹配视角下中期港股估值有抬升潜力。② ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of a strong US dollar on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the broader implications for foreign investment and local liquidity [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Reasons for Recent Dollar Strength**: - The US government shutdown has led to liquidity tightening, with the Treasury's account balance rising significantly, pulling approximately $700 billion in liquidity since June [2]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from nearly 100% to around 60% [2]. - The weakness of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, has also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar [2]. 2. **Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market**: - The Hong Kong stock market is heavily influenced by foreign capital, with foreign investment accounting for about 60% of the market [1][4]. - Historical data shows a strong correlation between foreign capital flows and the US dollar index, with significant outflows occurring during periods of rapid dollar appreciation [4]. - Since the end of September, flexible foreign capital has net exited the Hong Kong stock market by approximately HKD 75 billion [1][4]. 3. **Local Currency and Liquidity Dynamics**: - Hong Kong operates under a linked exchange rate system, where the Monetary Authority must withdraw liquidity when the HKD approaches the weak side of the peg at 7.85 [1][4]. - Despite the dollar's strength, the HKD has remained close to the strong side of the peg due to inflows from mainland China and reduced expectations for US rate cuts, meaning there is currently no need for liquidity withdrawal [1][4]. 4. **Market Outlook**: - Recent factors such as stabilizing US-China trade negotiations and potential resolution of the US government shutdown may alleviate pressure on the Hong Kong market [5]. - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is considered reasonable, with potential for a bull market if suppressive factors are lifted and quality assets accumulate in sectors like internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [5][6]. - The technology sector, particularly AI leaders, innovative pharmaceuticals, and brokerage firms, are expected to lead market growth in the future [3][5][6]. Other Important Insights - The strong dollar has a direct impact on liquidity in the Hong Kong market, affecting both foreign and local investors [1][4]. - The potential for a bull market hinges on the resolution of current economic pressures and the influx of new capital into high-quality sectors [5][6].

恒生指数高开0.3%，恒生科技指数涨0.36%。科网股走强，阿里巴巴、腾讯控股双双涨超1%，泡泡玛特 涨超2%，新股乐舒适涨超33%。 关于港股后市 广发证券发布研究报告称，港股牛市的基础并未破坏，但演进方式更可能呈现"震荡上行、重心缓升"的 特征，而非单边快速上涨，港股的11月基本面驱动效应强，仍然要重视高景气板块的价值。在配置上， 仍然采用杠铃策略，港股稳定价值类资产(尤其是AH溢价相对较高H股)作为底仓长期配置，港股景气成 长类资产的产业逻辑依然坚实，震荡中孕育机会。一旦上述Trigger出现，资金可能会流入中国最具备全 球竞争优势的核心资产，例如恒生科技(互联网、新能源车)等。 据上海证券报，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、永赢惠添益基金经理王乾表示，近期港股出现调整，主要 由于前期上涨动能减弱以及新的不确定性增加，部分投资者选择获利了结；同时，市场对12月美联储降 息预期尚不明确；此外，部分行业竞争加剧也使盈利预期出现反复。 国泰海通证券指出，①当前港股位置不高，对比历史/海外有上行空间，调整后性价比凸显，估值盈利 匹配视角下中期港股估值有抬升潜力。②明年港股增量资金明确，低配+联储降息背景下外资望超预期 ...