丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨华利集团（300979.SZ） [Table_Title] 华利集团 2025H1 业绩点评：（次）新客户拉动 收入较优，净利率环比回落 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望：2025 年基本面筑底，期待 2026 年起的基本面弹性回升&估值改善。短期，老厂开工率、订单 挪腾、少量客户 FOB 调整、H2 新厂投产，预计仍拖累 H2 净利率，但预计在所得税率平稳叠加近期 主动开始减人增效下，Q3 净利率仍可期待环比修复。中期，老客调整企稳叠加（次)新客户持续放量 有望驱动新一轮成长，积极产能扩张保障顺势时业绩弹性向上，行业格局优化叠加利润率恢复下，估 值有望提升。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 35.1、41.6、46.6 亿元，同比-9%、+18%、+12%， 对应 PE 为 18、15、14X，70%分红比例假设下 2025 年股息率为 4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a rebound in performance and valuation anticipated starting in 2026. Short-term growth is supported by a significant increase in new customers, while existing customers remain stable, allowing for a favorable growth rate in 2025. In the medium term, the stabilization of existing customers combined with the continued growth of new customers is expected to drive a new growth cycle. Active capacity expansion is anticipated to enhance performance elasticity, and improvements in industry dynamics and profit margins are likely to lead to valuation uplift. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 40.3 billion, 46.7 billion, and 54.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5%, 16%, and 17%, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 14, and 12 times for the respective years, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% for 2025 based on a 70% payout ratio [2][4][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of a new factory. The company maintained strong cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios despite the pressure on profit margins [4][9].