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华利集团(300979):(次)新客户拉动收入较优,净利率环比回落
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-27 02:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [4]. - The report anticipates a bottoming out of the fundamentals in 2025, with expectations for a rebound in 2026 and valuation improvement. Short-term factors such as old factory operating rates, order adjustments, and the launch of new factories in H2 are expected to continue to pressure net profit margins [2][4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.51 billion, 4.16 billion, and 4.66 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 14 times [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company experienced a revenue increase driven by new customer acquisition, with Q2 sales volume rising by 6% to 66 million pairs and an average selling price increase of 3% to 111.3 yuan per pair [4][9]. Profitability Analysis - Q2 gross margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 21.1%, primarily due to the ramp-up of new factories and production line adjustments. The company maintained strong cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios [4][9]. Future Outlook - The report expects a recovery in net profit margins in Q3 due to stable tax rates and recent efficiency improvements. The combination of stabilizing old customer adjustments and the continued growth of new customers is anticipated to drive a new growth cycle [2][4].
华利集团(300979):新客拉动收入较优,新厂爬坡拖累毛利率
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-15 09:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a rebound in performance and valuation anticipated starting in 2026. Short-term growth is supported by a significant increase in new customers, while existing customers remain stable, allowing for a favorable growth rate in 2025. In the medium term, the stabilization of existing customers combined with the continued growth of new customers is expected to drive a new growth cycle. Active capacity expansion is anticipated to enhance performance elasticity, and improvements in industry dynamics and profit margins are likely to lead to valuation uplift. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 40.3 billion, 46.7 billion, and 54.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5%, 16%, and 17%, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 14, and 12 times for the respective years, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% for 2025 based on a 70% payout ratio [2][4][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of a new factory. The company maintained strong cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios despite the pressure on profit margins [4][9].